Kalshi NFL Week 4 — Contract Prices vs. Our Model, All 16 Games
Every Week 4 game with three numbers on one line: our model's win probability, the live Kalshi contract price for that same side, and the gap between them. A game contract pays $1 if the team wins, so the price in cents is the market's implied probability — the two are directly subtractable. Biggest disagreements first.
Model and Kalshi columns are both the home side, so the edge is home-perspective; a negative edge is value on the away team, named in the row. 0 of 16 games carry a live contract price — Kalshi opens game markets as kickoff approaches, and an unopened market shows an em-dash rather than an estimate.
Where else to look
Kalshi NFL Markets is the season-long anchor — futures, division and championship contracts alongside the weekly board. Week 4 predictions carries the same games with the full model write-up per matchup. Power ratings vs. the market does the same comparison at the season level, in rating points.
Kalshi NFL Week 4 — questions
How do I read a Kalshi NFL Week 4 contract price?
A Kalshi game contract pays $1 if that team wins and $0 if it does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability directly — a contract at 62¢ is the market saying 62%. That is what lets us subtract our model’s probability from it and state the difference in percentage points, with no odds conversion in between.
What does the edge column mean?
Edge is our model’s win probability for a side minus the market’s price for that same side, in percentage points. Positive means the model thinks the market is underpricing that team. It is a disagreement, not a guarantee — every contract can settle at $0.
Where does the model number come from?
The Gridiron Edge engine, built on Defense-Adjusted EPA — per-play efficiency adjusted for opponent quality. It grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 walk-forward games (2013–2024), Brier 0.236. Those figures grade DAEPA itself, not any composite built on top of it. Every number here is published before kickoff and graded afterwards.
Is every Week 4 game priced yet?
Not always. Kalshi opens game markets as kickoff approaches, so early in a week some games have a model number and no contract price. Those rows show an em-dash in the price and edge columns rather than an estimate — an unopened market has no price, and inventing one would be the whole problem.
More NFL Markets
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Model win probabilities from the DAEPA power-rating engine. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0. Informational only — trade responsibly.