US Recession Probability Gauge
Live market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi NBER contracts. Updates every 5 minutes.
Drop one iframe on your site and never touch it again. Live consensus from Kalshi and Polymarket, paired with our proprietary Monte Carlo models and news-driven signal engine. Zero JavaScript, CSP-safe.
Browse the catalog ↓Live market-implied probability of a US recession from Kalshi NBER contracts. Updates every 5 minutes.
Crowd-sourced probability distribution of S&P 500 year-end closing levels from 27 Kalshi bracket markets. Mode, implied median, tail risk.
Live Kalshi prediction market probabilities for the next Fed rate decision — cut, hold, or hike.
Live market-implied CPI probability distribution from Kalshi bracket markets. Implied median, Fed 2% target marker, and core CPI. Updated every 5 minutes.
Single 0–100 composite of US macro health derived from 11 FRED economic series — growth, labor, inflation, rates, liquidity, sentiment. Classified into five regimes from Recession Watch to Expansion. Updates daily.
Upcoming US macro releases — FOMC, CPI, NBER recession quarter — with countdowns and the live Kalshi prediction market consensus per event. Refreshes every 15 minutes.
Live probability of a US government shutdown from Kalshi prediction markets. Active during budget deadline windows. Shows dormant monitoring state when no deadline is active.
Live feed of prediction market contracts where breaking news has hit but contract prices haven’t moved yet. Refreshed every 15 minutes by the Oracle v2 signal engine.
Today’s highest-edge silver weekly Kalshi strike rendered as a single trade ticket — entry side, price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, and quarter-Kelly sizing. Powered by the PMP Silver Edge model.
Highest-edge KXBTCD bitcoin strike rendered as a single trade ticket — entry side, price, resolve criterion, model probability, edge, and quarter-Kelly sizing. Powered by the PMP Bitcoin Edge model.
Live prediction market probabilities for the 2028 US presidential election from Polymarket. General election and nomination odds updated every 5 minutes.
Live prediction market odds on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner — sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi. Top 5 teams ranked by market-implied probability with countdown to kickoff. Updates every 5 minutes.
Top STRONG-tier WC 2026 mispricings — where the PMP 10K Monte Carlo sim and live Kalshi/Polymarket/DraftKings prices diverge by ≥8 percentage points. Updated every 30 minutes during the tournament.
Mispriced longshots the market wrote off. Live feed of ≤10¢ Kalshi and Polymarket contracts where price persistence and base-rate analog signal the crowd is asleep. Updated every 15 minutes.
Daily featured World Cup 2026 match showing market consensus vs. PMP Monte Carlo projection, with divergence flagged in real time.
Yes. The free tier permits 600 requests per hour per visitor IP, with a 10,000 per hour ceiling per embedding domain. Publishers who need more should upgrade to Pro at $14.99 per month for 50,000 requests per hour per API key, or contact us for an Enterprise key with 500,000 per hour.
Live market consensus is sourced from Kalshi event contracts and the Polymarket Gamma API. Model probabilities — where applicable — come from proprietary Monte Carlo simulations maintained by The 7 Oracles team. The Oracle Unpriced widget pulls from our news-driven signal engine.
Pick a widget below, choose a size variant, and copy the iframe snippet from its landing page. Paste it into your CMS, blog post, newsletter, or Discord landing page. No JavaScript or build step required.
Yes. The free tier license permits commercial use as long as the Powered by The 7 Oracles attribution bar remains visible. Pro and Enterprise customers may hide the bar.
Source payloads are refreshed by Supabase edge functions on a per-widget cadence — every 5 to 15 minutes for most widgets, every 15 minutes for Oracle Unpriced and Macro Pulse. The iframe HTML is cached at the CDN for 10 minutes on the free tier and 5 minutes on Pro.
Just stop loading the iframe — there is nothing to uninstall. If you need a referer-domain block, email support and we will add it within 24 hours.
Free and Pro embeds choose between two themes (parchment, indigo) and the size variants each widget exposes. Custom colors, fonts, and dimensions are available on Enterprise plans.
Yes — every V2 widget ships a structured payload that the chassis renders. We surface JSON access to Pro and Enterprise customers via API keys; contact us for direct access.
Start with World Cup 2026 — Match of the Day, or wire up the full Macro Pulse carousel. One iframe, free forever.
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