Ohio Senate Showdown: Why Prediction Markets Are Backing Sherrod Brown

But one of the things I really love is as Jean, you know, mentioned with with two weeks left to go until the midterms, right? You see here, we've simulated the election a bunch of times just like we Madden simulated the NFL season, right? But if you go down just a little bit further, Alex, you got a little bit more past the talico. There you go. Now, click on that full board. Absolutely. Markets verse pundits. And this is one of the things that I really really love. Okay. Now, here's here's the opening premise, right? Prediction markets have been better at calling elections than the forecasters and the polls. If you go back to the 2024 election, all seven quote unquote swing states the the the polls didn't know about. That's why they were swinging states, right? All seven of them, the prediction markets had Trump winning and that's exactly what happened. Poly Market had Trump winning the overall election at something like 62 63% the night before the election and that is what happens right so what this does what this tool does is it shows you what the polls the forecasters say where some of them are kind of behind the times they're like eight tracks to your you know to your disc man to your streaming service to your Spotify okay whereas the markets are 247 and there is movement there right and so we are seeing the gap between what the forecasters say and what the markets say. And we can show you where there is the biggest gap. Now, Jean, I know that you don't you ain't going to trade something that's 96% anyway, right? The forecast is still calling lean Democrat in Carolina, but the market says it's 96% that Roy Cooper is going to win. You talked about Oaf, right? Same kind of thing. The markets are saying that's now a slam dunk for Osaf. Meanwhile, the forecasters just have it as um you know, kind of leaning Democrat. What I like to do, Gan, is find the ones that are still where the polls and the forecasters kind of has it as a tossup, but the markets see it as more of a 60% chance, right? And one that I want to highlight right now is the Ohio Senate race, Alex. If you keep scrolling down, you'll get the Ohio Senate race. That is Sherrod Brown. Um, and if I can find it for you. Yep. It the the forecasters have it as a tossup. If you sort these by the gap, it's 14 uh percentage points. The forecasters have it as a tossup, but the market has it at 64%. Okay. Um, right there. Right there. Yeah. And if you click on that, click on the Ohio. Click on that one, Alex. Okay. So the market has it as a toss up. The mark um the markets have it as a um that Sherrod Brown is going to win. Now slide on down a little bit. We give you the recent polls. Now right there where you say you could clay traded it on Khi that purple box. Beautiful branding of the seven oracles. Now you go right there. Now Jean, look at this line graph. Okay. Look at this line graph and where the market has gone. If you take it back a little bit, Alex, look. Back in back in March, it was 50/50. Now slide towards like I don't know, you know, go go to like August or something. Keep sliding. Keep sl Look right around there. In August, Jean, this was 50/50. Now, in the last month and a half, bang, Sherrod Brown, the Democrat, has gone all the way up to 65%. Meanwhile, the polls, the last poll that was out, you know, you see it in our um kind of our background analysis here on the Seven Oracle site. The last poll was in late September. If you scroll on down, scroll on down. Keep going. Yep. The last poll, look at the date of that poll, Jean. September 22nd to 23rd. And they had it as, you know, Sherrod Brown at 46%, Houston at 43%. That's why these forecasters, these polls still think it's a tossup. But if you look at the couch graph, you see since September, the Democrat has skyrocketed. That is part of some of this energy that is happening. I don't care, Gene, about your politics. I don't care who you back. It doesn't matter to me. But when I see a trend line like this and a lot and a lot of the news out there is around how you mentioned how the Republican party is moving money around, taking money out of certain races, putting them in others where they think they have a better chance. Some people predict kind of a quote unquote blue wave. This is one that I think Gan you are going to continue to see this blue line trend up. And so I'm saying before another poll comes out and all of a sudden the poll matches these markets, go ahead and get you a piece of brown to win the Ohio Senate race before that market instead of 65% Jean turns to be 70%, 75% and looks the same way that it looks in Alaska or in Georgia or in some of these other ones. And that is part of the reason why I think this market verse pundant tool that we offer at the seven oracles is really great because the markets are 247. You could see the trend line before the kind of um inter you know kind of more periodic data points that these polls and these forecasters have access to