Weather Edge Tool
Live Kalshi temperature markets beside our read: the NWS forecast adjusted for each station's measured drift and error.
FREE · NICHE EDGE
Yes, you can trade the weather — and win.
What is this?
Kalshi runs markets on weather events — temperature thresholds, snowfall totals, storm frequency. Most people ignore these. That's exactly why they're worth looking at. Thin markets with less sophisticated competition = more mispricings.
If you live in a city and pay attention to weather patterns, you potentially have a local edge over the aggregate market. A NYC resident who watches the NOAA forecast closely might beat the market on NYC snow totals consistently.
Real-World Example
→ Local Knowledge Edge
Kalshi has "NYC gets more than 3 inches of snow in February" at 38¢. You check NOAA's extended 10-day forecast — there's a Nor'easter system forming that the market may not have fully priced.
You buy YES at 38¢. The storm delivers 7 inches. Market settles at 100¢. That's a 2.6x return on a weather call — because nobody else was paying attention to the forecast.
✅Action: Watch NOAA 7-day forecasts and compare to Kalshi weather market prices. Your local knowledge is your edge.
Bottom line: Thin, ignored markets = more inefficiency = more edge for the prepared trader.
Full guide →The retuned model is being monitored to confirm it's producing a documented, playable edge over a large enough sample. Every pick is logged and auto-graded — wins and losses both stay published.
Already settled — Weather Edge
latest Oct 28The last 6 calls this engine made that have already resolved, win or lose, with the price it flagged and the model probability behind it. Every pick is logged when it is made and graded automatically at settlement.
| Settled | Market | Side | Kalshi | Model | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25 · 1 AM ET | KXHIGHTBOS-26OCT24-T57 | NO | 41¢ | 79% | +38.3pp | Miss |
| Oct 27 · 1 AM ET | KXHIGHTSATX-26OCT26-T80 | NO | 45¢ | 76% | +31.2pp | Hit |
| Oct 27 · 1 AM ET | KXHIGHAUS-26OCT26-T81 | NO | 50¢ | 72% | +22.1pp | Miss |
| Oct 27 · 12 AM ET | Boston, MA gt 71.0°F | NO | 48¢ | 95% | +47.0pp | Miss |
| Oct 24 · 3 AM ET | Phoenix, AZ gt 82.0°F | NO | 77¢ | 95% | +18.0pp | Hit |
| Oct 23 · 3 AM ET | Phoenix, AZ gt 86.0°F | NO | 71¢ | 95% | +23.7pp | Miss |
Settled calls only — live flags are the Pro board. See today’s scan with Pro → $111 your first year, then $150/yr.
If you're asking how to read Kalshi weather markets: Kalshi lists daily-high markets in 13 U.S. cities, each settling on one named station's official high (The Weather Company's reported high, per the market's rules). The market price is already a sharp forecast — in our testing the ladder priced the official high better than an NWS-based model. Weather Edge shows that price beside our read: the NWS forecast for the station's own grid cell, adjusted by how far that station's official high has run from the forecast over the last 30 days. Where they differ, you decide.
Our read is a probability beside the market price, not a pick: in testing it did not beat the price after fees.
Sample Read — Los Angeles, CA
Los Angeles, CA
2026-05-14NWS 70°F · 72.3°F with KLAX's +2.3°F station drift · 14h to close
Live board — the market and our read
Same thermometer, two ladders: Kalshi vs Polymarket US
Both venues settle these five cities on the National Weather Service Climatological Report for the same station, so the official high is one number. The buckets are not: Polymarket US lists 2°F buckets that sit one degree off Kalshi's on most days (3 of 5 city-days listed right now). Prices below are each venue's current bid and ask, shown for information.
What each market settles at right now · How well the market reads the high, daily
New York City
KNYC · Central Park · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
as of 4:15 AM ET
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:14 AM ET
Ladders offset by one degree today — a bucket on one venue straddles two on the other.
New York City
KNYC · Central Park · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
No Kalshi ladder logged in the last few hours.
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:00 AM ET
Chicago
KMDW · Midway · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
as of 4:15 AM ET
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:15 AM ET
Ladders offset by one degree today — a bucket on one venue straddles two on the other.
Chicago
KMDW · Midway · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
No Kalshi ladder logged in the last few hours.
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:00 AM ET
Los Angeles
KLAX · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
as of 4:15 AM ET
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:15 AM ET
Ladders aligned today — the same buckets on both venues.
Los Angeles
KLAX · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
No Kalshi ladder logged in the last few hours.
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:07 AM ET
Miami
KMIA · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
as of 4:15 AM ET
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:15 AM ET
Ladders offset by one degree today — a bucket on one venue straddles two on the other.
Miami
KMIA · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
No Kalshi ladder logged in the last few hours.
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:00 AM ET
San Francisco
KSFO · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
as of 4:15 AM ET
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:15 AM ET
Ladders aligned today — the same buckets on both venues.
San Francisco
KSFO · settles on the NWS Climate Report
Kalshi
Kalshi ladder not logged for San Francisco yet.
Polymarket USPolymarketPartner
as of 4:00 AM ET
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Every signal graded in public, losers left on the board. See the record →
Related Tools
How to trade Kalshi weather markets
Most weather positions are lost on the rules, not the forecast. Run these checks before reading the board:
- Find the station. Each market's rules name one station and one source. Daily markets settle on The Weather Company's reported high for that station (the CLI code in the rules). An airport sensor and a downtown one can disagree by a few degrees, and only the named one counts. Each city's rule is on its settlement page.
- High or low. Daily markets resolve on the day's highest (or lowest) reading at that station, listed as ranges and as “or above” / “or below” levels. Weather Edge prices the high-temperature threshold contracts only.
- Mind the clock. NWS climate reports use local standard time, so during daylight saving time the “day” runs from 1:00 AM to 12:59 AM the next day. A warm late evening can still count.
- Expect the odd delay. Kalshi can hold a daily settlement when the final report's high comes in below the preliminary one, or doesn't match the station's 6-hour and 24-hour highs.
- Hourly markets are a different contract. Kalshi's “temperature at 5 PM” markets settle on The Weather Company's reading about half an hour after close. This tool doesn't price them.
- Then compare the price with our read. A gap is not an edge on its own; count the fee in the Kalshi fee calculator before any position.
Rules source: Kalshi Help Center: Weather markets (read October 13, 2026). The market's own rules govern.
Kalshi Weather Markets — Where the Edge Lives
Kalshi runs daily high-temperature threshold markets across 13 major U.S. cities. Each contract resolves YES if the official high at one named station clears a specific strike — like “Denver high above 72°F.” The market price is the crowd's implied probability, and in our testing it has been a sharp one.
Our read starts from the NWS forecast for the grid cell that contains the settlement station, then adds that station's own drift: how far its official high has run from the forecast over the last 30 days, measured at the same number of hours to close. The spread comes from the same station's forecast error at that horizon. Where the market and our read differ, the board shows both and lets you decide.
Why weather markets are tradable
Temperature forecasts are among the best-validated probabilistic forecasts in the world, and the market prices them well: by the afternoon of settlement day the Kalshi ladder misses the official high by about half a degree. Where a gap shows up, it is most often the station itself — official highs at some stations run steadily above or below the NWS forecast, and our read is built to show that.
Counting the cost
Every position pays Kalshi's taker fee at the fill, win or lose, so a small gap between the price and our read can vanish after the fee. Run the numbers in the EV Calculator before you commit, and keep size small.
What the engine scans
The tool live-computes on every page load. It pulls the latest NWS forecasts for Denver, New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Boston, Seattle, Dallas, and San Antonio, matches each city to its open Kalshi threshold markets, and prices every strike with our read beside the market. Kalshi's price and the station's running high are logged around the clock.
Run this model from your AI agent
The same engine is published as a remote MCP server, so Claude, ChatGPT, Grok or Cursor can call it directly: the live Kalshi weather board, a contract price converted to an implied probability, that price against the climatological base rate, a Bayesian update as each new forecast run lands, expected value after fees, and Kelly sizing. Read-only, free, and no API key. Setup and the full tool list are on the weather markets hub — the same page carries the live temperature and Pacific storm-count boards and the settlement rule behind each series.
Common questions
How is Weather Edge different from just checking the forecast myself? The NWS forecast is a good start, but each settlement station runs a measurable distance from it — Los Angeles' official high has run about 2.5°F above the forecast this fall, New York's about 0.9°F below. Our read adds that drift and the station's own error at this horizon, and the board shows it next to the market price so you can see where the two differ.
What time of day are the most reliable signals posted? The board updates on every page load. The NWS forecast barely sharpens between about 42 and 12 hours to close, while the market keeps sharpening through settlement day — it watches the station's live readings — so a late-day gap between our read and the price usually means the market knows more.
Do I need to pay to use Weather Edge? No. Weather Edge is free: the live board, our read on every priced strike and the track record by version run on the tool page with no signup and no paywall.
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answer: why are Kalshi weather markets tradable?
Kalshi lists daily-high markets in 13 U.S. cities, each settling on one named station's official high (The Weather Company's reported high, per the market's rules). The market price is already a sharp forecast — in our testing the ladder priced the official high better than an NWS-based model. Weather Edge shows that price beside our read: the NWS forecast for the station's own grid cell, adjusted by how far that station's official high has run from the forecast over the last 30 days. Where they differ, you decide.
How do you trade Kalshi weather markets?
Start with the rules, then the forecast. Each daily temperature market settles on The Weather Company's reported high for one named station (the CLI code in the rules), so check which station counts before anything else. The day runs on local standard time, so during daylight saving time it runs 1:00 AM to 12:59 AM local. Then compare a forecast-based probability with the Kalshi price, count the fee, and size small.
What is the Weather Edge tool?
Weather Edge puts Kalshi's daily-high temperature prices for 13 U.S. cities beside our read of each strike: the NWS forecast for the settlement station's own grid cell, adjusted by that station's measured forecast drift, with the station's own forecast error at the hours left to close. It shows probabilities, not picks.
How accurate is the Weather Edge model?
Out of sample (Oct 6–29, 2026) our read scored a Brier of 0.0995 against 0.1348 for the previous model; the market price scored 0.0486, closer than either. That is why the board shows our read beside the price and publishes no edge from it. Every published pick is graded on Kalshi's settlement and shown by strategy version.
Which Kalshi markets does Weather Edge cover?
Weather Edge covers Kalshi daily high-temperature threshold (above/below) contracts across 13 U.S. cities: Denver, New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Boston, Seattle, Dallas, and San Antonio. The narrow range (bucket) markets are logged but not yet priced. Coverage expands as Kalshi adds city markets.
How is Weather Edge different from just checking the forecast myself?
The NWS forecast is a good start, but each settlement station runs a measurable distance from it — Los Angeles' official high has run about 2.5°F above the forecast this fall, New York's about 0.9°F below. Our read adds that drift and the station's own error at this horizon, and the board shows it next to the market price so you can see where the two differ.
What time of day are the most reliable Weather Edge signals posted?
The board updates on every page load. The NWS forecast barely sharpens between about 42 and 12 hours to close, while the market keeps sharpening through settlement day — it watches the station's live readings — so a late-day gap between our read and the price usually means the market knows more.
Do I need to pay to use Weather Edge?
No. Weather Edge is free: the live board, our read on every priced strike and the track record by version run on the tool page with no signup and no paywall.
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