Tua Tagovailoa
QB · Atlanta Falcons · bye week 11
2026 projection vs. consensus ADP — where our board disagrees with the market.
Our 2026 half-PPR projection for Tua Tagovailoa, the consensus draft cost, and where the two disagree. Same numbers our model serves to AI assistants — free, no key.
Where the market has Tua Tagovailoa this week
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Tua Tagovailoa at 29.5¢ for 2+ pass TDs against PIT in Week 1.
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Tua Tagovailoa at 79.5¢ for 150+ pass yds against PIT in Week 1, with the best over at Kalshi (84¢).
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Tua Tagovailoa at 15.0¢ for 275+ pass yds against PIT in Week 1.
- As of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, Kalshi prices Tua Tagovailoa at 22.5¢ for 250+ pass yds against PIT in Week 1, with the best over at Kalshi (28.4¢).
A gap between two venues is a price difference, not a recommendation. Prices move; the timestamp on each line is the clock it was read on.
Projected points
222
13.1 per game
Consensus ADP
265
round 23
QB rank
QB30
model has him QB26
2026 range
10th pct 166·median 205·90th pct 295
Measured, not simulated. Our QB projections have landed inside this band 80% of the time against a 80% target, on the 2024-25 holdout. The median sits below the projection because most players lose time — the projection is an expected total, not the typical outcome.
Week 1 distribution
Rush Yds
10th 0·median 2·90th 15
The spread comes from how far actual results have landed from projections of this size, fitted on four seasons — not a simulation. Season and week figures are different vintages: the range above is preseason, this block is Week 1.
Our board and the consensus market agree on him almost exactly at QB.
The Ladder — Tua Tagovailoa
All ladders →Every Kalshi strike listed on this player beside the sportsbook consensus, with our probability marked at the strike we called.
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Our number is published at the called strike only; the market curves are complete.
Rung-by-rung numbers are a Pro feature. Unlock Pro →
Gold is our distribution, parchment is the Kalshi contract at each strike; the band between them is green where our probability is higher and purple where it is lower. We publish our number only where we have measured it to be calibrated, between 30% and 70%; rungs outside that range show the market only. A contract pays $1 if it settles YES, so a price in cents is an implied probability. Prediction markets carry risk; contracts can settle at $0.
Prop market — every Kalshi strike
Full market board →| Contract | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Best price | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ pass TDsATL v PIT | 69.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 2+ pass TDsATL v PIT | 29.5¢ | — | no books | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 150+ pass ydsATL v PIT | 79.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 84¢ | Kalshi → |
| 175+ pass ydsATL v PIT | 65.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 200+ pass ydsATL v PIT | 51.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 57.7¢ | Kalshi → |
| 225+ pass ydsATL v PIT | 36.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 250+ pass ydsATL v PIT | 22.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | over · Kalshi 28.4¢ | Kalshi → |
| 275+ pass ydsATL v PIT | 15.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 10+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 20.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 15+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 13.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
| 20+ rush ydsATL v PIT | 6.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | Kalshi only | Kalshi → |
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents, read across two clocks — Kalshi as of Sep 9, 10:10 PM ET, books as of Sep 9, 6:15 PM ET. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
Falcons 2026 schedule
Team hub →Every game carries our model line against the live Kalshi contract price.
How this projection is built
Season projections come from our own usage model — target and carry share, efficiency and games played — then the published rank blends that model with consensus ADP at a weight fitted per position. The raw model loses to consensus ADP at every position, so the board leads with the blend and the disagreement is the content, not a claim that we are right.
The engine behind the game numbers grades at 59.6% straight up across 3,266 games (2013–2024). Those figures grade DAEPA, the underlying play-by-play model. Every published call is graded here.
Want the whole board? All 330 players are free — and any AI assistant can read them directly through our MCP server, with no key and no signup.
Questions about Tua Tagovailoa
What is Tua Tagovailoa's 2026 projection?
Tua Tagovailoa projects 222 half-PPR points (13.1 per game) for 2026, against a consensus ADP of 265 (round 23). The page also carries a measured 10th–90th percentile range: it is the fitted distribution of actual-over-projected outcomes, holdout-validated, not a simulation.
How does a Kalshi player-prop contract pay out?
A Kalshi player-prop contract settles at $1 if the player clears the stated threshold and $0 if he does not, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability of the threshold being cleared. Buying YES at 62¢ returns 38¢ per contract on a clear and loses 62¢ otherwise; buying NO at 38¢ is the mirror. Because both sides of a two-sided Kalshi book sum to about 100¢, no de-vigging is needed before comparing it to a model probability — a sportsbook price has to be de-vigged first.
More NFL Markets
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL Player Props vs Kalshi — the edge board → — Our projection vs the live Kalshi prop line, biggest gap first
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free model win probability vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Moneyline, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale
Projections as of 2026-09-09; ADP source composite. Fantasy projections are estimates, not predictions — trade and draft responsibly.