Raiders vs Patriots player props — Kalshi prices vs the books

Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 5. Game preview and model line →

Quick Answer

As of October 8, 2026, Kalshi lists 66 player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Raiders vs Patriots, Week 5.

Kalshi as of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET · books as of Oct 8, 3:15 PM ET · 235 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 66 with a real two-sided book · 0 priced against 3+ books

This week on the boardNFL Week 5 predictions →Week 6 predictions →Week 4 results →

Week 5 gamesBuccaneers at Cowboys Eagles at Jaguars Bengals at Dolphins Raiders at Patriots Vikings at Saints Browns at Jets Colts at Steelers Texans at Titans Giants at Commanders Broncos at Chargers Lions at Cardinals Bears at Packers 49ers at Seahawks Ravens at Falcons Bills at Rams

Oracle calls for this game

Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.

plays only

NFL player prop edges — our projection against each Kalshi contract (X or more), on the strike closest to our projection. The call is YES or NO on that contract, the market price is the price of the called side, and the edge is stated on the called side. Rows badged WATCH are not plays; rows badged SKEW are calls where the average projection sits on the other side of the threshold.
Player	Contract	Matchup	Call	Our proj	Our odds	Mkt	Edge	Tier	Trade
Kirk CousinsQBWatch	2+ pass TDsover 1.5	LV vs NE	YES	1.7	51%	43¢	+8.0 pp	MODERATE	Buy YES →
Drake MayeQBWatch	2+ pass TDsover 1.5	NE vs LV	NO	1.2	65%	51¢	+13.7 pp	MODERATE	Buy NO →

2 of 2 props

Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.

Prop market board — Raiders vs Patriots

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

🔒 Filter by our call — Pro

Every Kalshi NFL player-prop strike with a two-sided book this week: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus probability read at that strike, exchange quotes at the same strike, and the gap between Kalshi and consensus in cents. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Player	Prop	Game	Kalshi	Consensus	Gap	Novig	ProphetX	Best price	Our P(over)	Trade
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	225+ pass yds	LV @ NE	53.5¢	52.2%2bk	+1.3¢	o -122 / u +100	—	over · Novig 55¢under · Kalshi 48.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	48.5¢	—	one-sided	o -108 / u +100	o -142	over · Kalshi 50.8¢under · Novig 50¢	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	2+ TDs	LV @ NE	11.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	25+ rec yds	LV @ NE	50.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	40+ rec yds	LV @ NE	23.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	50+ rec yds	LV @ NE	14.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	4+ rec	LV @ NE	53.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	5+ rec	LV @ NE	35.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	30+ rush yds	LV @ NE	81.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	40+ rush yds	LV @ NE	74.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	60+ rush yds	LV @ NE	49.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Ashton JeantyLV v NE	70+ rush yds	LV @ NE	38.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Brock BowersLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	38.0¢	—	one-sided	o +153 / u -1567	o +119	over · Novig 39.5¢under · Kalshi 64.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Brock BowersLV v NE	2+ TDs	LV @ NE	8.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Brock BowersLV v NE	70+ rec yds	LV @ NE	53.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Brock BowersLV v NE	80+ rec yds	LV @ NE	42.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Brock BowersLV v NE	100+ rec yds	LV @ NE	21.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Cody WhiteLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	14.5¢	—	one-sided	o +488 / u -1329	o +360	over · BetRivers 13.3¢under · Kalshi 87.8¢	—	Kalshi →
Connor HeywardLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	6.5¢	—	one-sided	—	—	over · Fanatics 4.8¢	—	Kalshi →
Corey KinerNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	20.5¢	—	one-sided	—	—	over · BetRivers 2.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Corey KinerNE v LV	2+ TDs	LV @ NE	2.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
DeMario DouglasNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	18.5¢	—	one-sided	o +317 / u -669	o +285	over · Kalshi 21.1¢under · Kalshi 84¢	—	Kalshi →
DeMario DouglasNE v LV	50+ rec yds	LV @ NE	20.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	18.5¢	—	one-sided	o +400 / u -456	o +295	over · BetRivers 19¢under · Novig 82¢	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	2+ TDs	LV @ NE	2.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	1+ INTs	LV @ NE	53.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeQBNE v LV	2+ pass TDs	LV @ NE	49.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	🔒	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	4+ pass TDs	LV @ NE	6.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	150+ pass yds	LV @ NE	86.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -1076 / u +355	—	over · Kalshi 89.7¢under · Kalshi 18¢	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	200+ pass yds	LV @ NE	66.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -239 / u +144	—	over · Kalshi 69.5¢under · Kalshi 37.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	225+ pass yds	LV @ NE	51.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -133 / u +100	—	over · Kalshi 53.8¢under · Novig 50¢	—	Kalshi →
Drake MayeNE v LV	50+ rush yds	LV @ NE	22.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Efton Chism IIINE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	15.5¢	—	one-sided	o +488 / u -590	o +425	over · BetRivers 14.3¢under · Novig 85.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Eli RaridonNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	12.0¢	—	one-sided	o +614	o +445	over · DK 13.3¢	—	Kalshi →
Hunter HenryNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	29.0¢	—	one-sided	o +217 / u -335	o -320	over · BetRivers 30.8¢under · Kalshi 73.4¢	—	Kalshi →
Hunter HenryNE v LV	60+ rec yds	LV @ NE	24.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	5.5¢	—	one-sided	o +1567 / u -2400	o +1000	over · DK 5.3¢under · Kalshi 95.3¢	—	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	1+ pass TDs	LV @ NE	78.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsQBLV v NE	2+ pass TDs	LV @ NE	42.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	🔒	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	3+ pass TDs	LV @ NE	16.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	200+ pass yds	LV @ NE	67.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o -233 / u +144	—	over · Novig 70¢under · Kalshi 35.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	250+ pass yds	LV @ NE	38.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +150 / u -257	—	over · Novig 40¢under · Kalshi 64.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	275+ pass yds	LV @ NE	25.0¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +251 / u -669	—	over · Kalshi 28.4¢under · Kalshi 78.2¢	—	Kalshi →
Kirk CousinsLV v NE	300+ pass yds	LV @ NE	15.5¢	off-ladder	off-ladder	o +426 / u -1329	—	over · Kalshi 18¢under · Kalshi 86.8¢	—	Kalshi →
Kyle WilliamsNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	11.0¢	—	one-sided	o +614 / u -1900	o +445	over · BetRivers 11.8¢under · Kalshi 90.6¢	—	Kalshi →
LV Raiders D/STLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	12.5¢	—	one-sided	—	—	over · Kalshi 14.8¢	—	Kalshi →
Malik BensonLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	9.5¢	—	one-sided	o +700 / u -3233	o +495	over · Kalshi 10.6¢under · Kalshi 91.6¢	—	Kalshi →
Michael MayerLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	19.5¢	—	one-sided	o +376 / u -2400	o +335	over · BetRivers 18.9¢under · Kalshi 82.1¢	—	Kalshi →
Michael MayerLV v NE	30+ rec yds	LV @ NE	50.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Michael MayerLV v NE	40+ rec yds	LV @ NE	32.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Michael MayerLV v NE	4+ rec	LV @ NE	49.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Mike Washington Jr.LV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	13.5¢	—	one-sided	o +525 / u -1150	o +455	over · Kalshi 14.8¢under · Kalshi 87.8¢	—	Kalshi →
Mike Washington Jr.LV v NE	25+ rush yds	LV @ NE	45.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Mike Washington Jr.LV v NE	30+ rush yds	LV @ NE	35.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Rhamondre StevensonNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	45.5¢	—	one-sided	o +106 / u -170	o -420	over · Kalshi 47.7¢under · Kalshi 56.7¢	—	Kalshi →
Rhamondre StevensonNE v LV	2+ TDs	LV @ NE	14.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Romeo DoubsNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	31.0¢	—	one-sided	o +186 / u -285	o +140	over · Kalshi 33.5¢under · Kalshi 71.5¢	—	Kalshi →
Romeo DoubsNE v LV	2+ TDs	LV @ NE	5.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Romeo DoubsNE v LV	50+ rec yds	LV @ NE	52.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Romeo DoubsNE v LV	70+ rec yds	LV @ NE	32.5¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Romeo DoubsNE v LV	80+ rec yds	LV @ NE	24.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Romeo DoubsNE v LV	2+ rec	LV @ NE	88.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
Tre TuckerLV v NE	anytime TD	LV @ NE	20.5¢	—	one-sided	o +335 / u -733	o +265	over · FD 22.2¢under · Kalshi 82.1¢	—	Kalshi →
Tre TuckerLV v NE	4+ rec	LV @ NE	44.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →
TreVeyon HendersonNE v LV	anytime TD	LV @ NE	49.5¢	—	one-sided	o +127 / u -144	o -130	over · Novig 44.1¢under · Kalshi 52.8¢	—	Kalshi →
TreVeyon HendersonNE v LV	2+ TDs	LV @ NE	15.0¢	—	no books	—	—	Kalshi only	—	Kalshi →

66 of 66 two-sided strikes · + 169 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced · Our P(over) is Pro · book consensus as of Oct 8, 3:15 PM ET

Raiders vs Patriots player prop ladders for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every strike vs the sportsbook consensus — The Raiders vs Patriots prop ladders with the widest market disagreement this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

Embed this game’s spread ladder

A live card locked to Raiders vs Patriots, Week 5 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

Every NFL prediction-market widget.

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Las Vegas Raiders New England Patriots Every game this week →

The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike

Strikes above, distribution here: our full margin curve beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.

How to read this board — and what we are not claiming

Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.

Raiders vs Patriots props — FAQ

What are the player props for Raiders vs Patriots?

66 Kalshi player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Week 5 — passing, rushing, receiving and scoring lines — each shown on this page beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, with the cheapest venue for each side named.

Where are Raiders vs Patriots player props priced best?

The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.

What is the gap column?

The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.

Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?

Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 66 strikes with a real two-sided book; 169 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.

Can you trade NFL player props on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL player-prop contracts — for example, will a quarterback record 275 or more passing yards. Each contract settles at $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if no, so its price in cents is the market's implied probability, and traders buy and sell it from each other until it settles.

How is a Kalshi prop different from a prop at the books?

A Kalshi prop is an exchange contract: traders take either side from each other, the price moves with the order book, and a position can be sold before kickoff. At the books the house sets the line. This page reads the books' implied probability at the same line as each Kalshi strike so the two can be compared directly.

What is an Oracle Ladder?

An Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market as a curve — for player props, beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line. Our model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any strike where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refused rather than shown.

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