CO-08
CO-08 House winner? (2026)
34k contracts traded · 21k open
CO-08 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
CO-08 House Race 2026: Manny Rutinel vs Gabe Evans Odds
Colorado’s 8th District
Colorado’s 8th, the state’s newest and most balanced seat, is held by Republican Gabe Evans on the narrowest of margins — and the 2026 market prices it as a likely Democratic flip. A brand-new swing district with a first-term incumbent in a blue-trending state is exactly where a midterm wave lands first. The live contract is one of the cleaner flip signals on the House board.
Currently represented by Gabe Evans (R)
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, Manny Rutinel leads the CO-08 House market at 85¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 85%.
Seat currently held by Gabe Evans (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 5:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in CO-08
Manny Rutinel
Democrat85¢
Gabe Evans
Republican16¢
Live CO-08 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so Rutinel at 85¢ is an 85% implied chance. That sits 35 points from a 50¢ coin flip.
CO-08 by the numbers
- Where the price sits
- Manny Rutinel (D) leads CO-08 at 85¢ — an 85% implied chance, against Gabe Evans (R) at 16¢. Quoted book: Rutinel 84¢ bid / 85¢ ask; Evans 15¢ bid / 16¢ ask.
- How close it is
- 22nd-closest of the 65 House district markets we track (level with 1 other), by the favorite’s distance from 50¢.
- Money behind it
- 21,289 contracts of open interest and 33,658 traded over the market’s life (30 in the last 24 hours) — the 35th-deepest of those 65 by open interest. By contract: Manny Rutinel 10,469, Gabe Evans 10,820.
- How it has moved
- Rutinel’s contract last closed at 85¢ on Oct 14: 0 points since Oct 7 (85¢ → 85¢); +7 since Sep 14, the start of the window we hold (78¢).
- Rating vs market
- The Cook Political Report rated CO-08 a GOP toss-up in its Mar 12 2026 House ratings. The market today has Rutinel 35 points past a coin flip — well beyond what a toss-up call implies.
- Seat status
- Incumbent defense — Gabe Evans is a nominee.
- Colorado’s House map
- Colorado sends 8 members to the House; 1 other Colorado district trades on our board: CO-03 (Hurd 71¢).
- Up the ballot
- Colorado Senate — John Hickenlooper (D) 99¢.
CO-08 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the CO-08 House race in 2026?
As of October 15, 2026, Kalshi prices Manny Rutinel (D) at 85¢ — a 85% implied chance — to win the CO-08 House race; Gabe Evans (R) is at 16¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously.
Who is running in CO-08 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the CO-08 House race are Manny Rutinel (Democrat) and Gabe Evans (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the CO-08 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists CO-08 under event HOUSECO8-26 as 2 YES contracts: Manny Rutinel (HOUSECO8-26-D) and Gabe Evans (HOUSECO8-26-R). Each settles at $1 if its candidate wins and $0 if not, so buying Rutinel at 85¢ risks 85¢ to collect $1 — worth it only if you put Rutinel’s chance above 85%. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states.
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