CO-08
CO-08 House winner? (2026)
11k contracts traded · 6.2k open
CO-08 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
CO-08 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Colorado’s 8th District
Colorado’s 8th, the state’s newest and most balanced seat, is held by Republican Gabe Evans on the narrowest of margins — and the 2026 market prices it as a likely Democratic flip. A brand-new swing district with a first-term incumbent in a blue-trending state is exactly where a midterm wave lands first. The live contract is one of the cleaner flip signals on the House board.
Currently represented by Gabe Evans (R)
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Manny Rutinel leads the CO-08 House market at 79¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 79%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Gabe Evans (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live CO-08 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
CO-08 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the CO-08 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Colorado’s 8th District) is held by Gabe Evans (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the CO-08 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the CO-08 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the CO-08 contract this cycle.
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