WA-03
WA-03 House winner? (2026)
34k contracts traded · 18k open
WA-03 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Lean D
WA-03 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Washington’s 3rd District
Washington’s 3rd, a southwest-Washington seat Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won in one of the last cycle’s biggest upsets, prices as a lean-Democratic hold — the market gives her the edge in a district that leans Republican on paper. Her brand as a rural, small-business Democrat is the whole thesis, and the contract weighs whether it holds a second time. The live price tracks that unusually personal incumbency.
Currently represented by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads the WA-03 House market at 88¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 88%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live WA-03 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
WA-03 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the WA-03 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Washington’s 3rd District) is held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) and rated lean d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the WA-03 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the WA-03 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the WA-03 contract this cycle.
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