WA-03
WA-03 House winner? (2026)
178k contracts traded · 137k open
WA-03 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
WA-03 House Race 2026: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John Braun Odds
Washington’s 3rd District
Washington’s 3rd, a southwest-Washington seat Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won in one of the last cycle’s biggest upsets, prices as a lean-Democratic hold — the market gives her the edge in a district that leans Republican on paper. Her brand as a rural, small-business Democrat is the whole thesis, and the contract weighs whether it holds a second time. The live price tracks that unusually personal incumbency.
Currently represented by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Quick Answer
As of October 11, 2026, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads the WA-03 House market at 90¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 90%.
Seat currently held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 12:37 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in WA-03
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Democrat90¢
John Braun
Republican9¢
Live WA-03 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
WA-03 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the WA-03 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Washington’s 3rd District) is held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in WA-03 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the WA-03 House race are Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) and John Braun (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the WA-03 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the WA-03 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the WA-03 contract this cycle.
Get The 7 Oracles newsletter — midterm market alpha, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.