WA-03
WA-03 House winner? (2026)
178k contracts traded · 137k open
WA-03 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
WA-03 House Race 2026: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs John Braun Odds
Washington’s 3rd District
Washington’s 3rd, a southwest-Washington seat Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won in one of the last cycle’s biggest upsets, prices as a lean-Democratic hold — the market gives her the edge in a district that leans Republican on paper. Her brand as a rural, small-business Democrat is the whole thesis, and the contract weighs whether it holds a second time. The live price tracks that unusually personal incumbency.
Currently represented by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads the WA-03 House market at 91¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 91%.
Seat currently held by Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 6:37 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in WA-03
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
Democrat91¢
John Braun
Republican9¢
Live WA-03 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so Gluesenkamp Perez at 91¢ is a 91% implied chance. That sits 41 points from a 50¢ coin flip.
WA-03 by the numbers
- Where the price sits
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) leads WA-03 at 91¢ — a 91% implied chance, against John Braun (R) at 9¢. Quoted book: Gluesenkamp Perez 91¢ bid / 91¢ ask; Braun 9¢ bid / 10¢ ask.
- How close it is
- 28th-closest of the 65 House district markets we track (level with 5 others), by the favorite’s distance from 50¢.
- Money behind it
- 137,198 contracts of open interest and 178,146 traded over the market’s life (459 in the last 24 hours) — the 9th-deepest of those 65 by open interest. By contract: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 46,161, John Braun 91,037.
- How it has moved
- Gluesenkamp Perez’s contract last closed at 90¢ on Oct 14: 0 points since Oct 7 (90¢ → 90¢); 0 since Sep 14, the start of the window we hold (90¢).
- Rating vs market
- The Cook Political Report rated WA-03 a Dem toss-up in its Mar 12 2026 House ratings. The market today has Gluesenkamp Perez 41 points past a coin flip — well beyond what a toss-up call implies.
- Seat status
- Open seat — Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is not among the nominees.
- Washington’s House map
- Washington sends 10 members to the House, and no other district in the state trades on our board.
WA-03 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the WA-03 House race in 2026?
As of October 15, 2026, Kalshi prices Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) at 91¢ — a 91% implied chance — to win the WA-03 House race; John Braun (R) is at 9¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously.
Who is running in WA-03 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the WA-03 House race are Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democrat) and John Braun (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the WA-03 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists WA-03 under event HOUSEWA3-26 as 2 YES contracts: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (HOUSEWA3-26-D) and John Braun (HOUSEWA3-26-R). Each settles at $1 if its candidate wins and $0 if not, so buying Gluesenkamp Perez at 91¢ risks 91¢ to collect $1 — worth it only if you put Gluesenkamp Perez’s chance above 91%. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states.
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