Base Rate Scanner
Compare market prices against historical base rates. Spot when the market is diverging from what history says should happen.
RESEARCH TOOL
What does history actually say about this type of event?
What is this?
A "base rate" is just historical frequency. Before you bet on something, the first question should be: "How often has this type of thing happened in the past?" That's your anchor before you go hunting for edge.
This tool pulls historical data on recurring event types — Fed decisions, shutdowns, elections, CPI prints — so you can ground your prediction in reality before the market price sways you.
Real-World Example
→ Before You Bet
A market asks: "Will there be a federal government shutdown in Q2 2026?" It's priced at 28¢. Your gut says that's about right. But what does history say?
Base Rate Finder shows: government shutdowns occur in Q2 roughly 12% of historically measured periods. The market at 28¢ is overpriced by 16 points. That's a NO bet — data-backed.
✅Action: Run Base Rate first. If your gut and the market are both far from history, that's your highest-confidence position.
Bottom line: History repeats more than people think. Know your base rates before trusting your instincts.
Full guide →Worked Example
Market pricing 26.0pp higher than the 12% historical average. Sample size: 14 observations.
Base Rate Scanner
Sitting presidents seeking a second term win re-election
Market pricing 18.0pp lower than the 68% historical average
Base rates are historical averages, not predictions. Always consider whether this cycle differs from the historical sample.
Related Tools
What is a Base Rate?
A base rate is the historical frequency of an event across many similar situations. If the Fed has held rates in 74% of the meetings where unemployment was below 4%, that 74% is the base rate. It's not a guarantee — it's the starting point for your probability estimate before you factor in what's unique about today.
Markets often ignore base rates.Traders focus on the specific news of the day — the latest CPI print, the Fed chair's tone, what the bond market is pricing — and anchor too hard to recent events. This is the base rate fallacy: treating every situation as unique when the historical pattern is actually highly informative.
When the gap signals a trade
A 10pp gap between the base rate and the market price is significant. It means the market is either dramatically overpaying or underpaying for the event relative to its historical frequency. That's not a trade by itself — you still need a view on why this time is or isn't different. But it's a flag worth investigating, and the bigger the gap, the more you need a specific reason to disagree with history.
Data quality matters
Not all base rates are equally reliable. An incumbent re-election rate built from 22 observations is more trustworthy than a Bitcoin year-end price base rate built from 5 years of data. The scanner shows sample size and confidence level for every category so you know how much weight to give the signal.
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