NY-04
NY-04 House winner? (2026)
12k contracts traded · 7.6k open
NY-04 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
NY-04 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
New York’s 4th District
New York’s 4th, a Long Island seat Democrat Laura Gillen flipped back, prices as a likely hold — the market has Gillen ahead of Republican Jeanine Driscoll despite the district’s swing reputation. New York’s suburban seats whipsawed hard in recent cycles, so the contract’s confidence is worth stress-testing. The live price tracks whether the 2024 suburban Republican surge is reversing.
Currently represented by Laura Gillen (D)
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Laura Gillen leads the NY-04 House market at 90¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 90%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Laura Gillen (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live NY-04 House Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
NY-04 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the NY-04 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (New York’s 4th District) is held by Laura Gillen (Democrat) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the NY-04 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the NY-04 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the NY-04 contract this cycle.
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