NE-02 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Nebraska’s 2nd District
Nebraska’s 2nd — the Omaha “blue dot” — opens up with Republican Don Bacon’s exit, and the market prices the Democratic side as a clear favorite to claim it. An open swing seat in a ticket-splitting district, in a midterm tilted toward Democrats, is a natural flip; the contract has Denise Powell (D) well ahead of Brinker Harding (R). The live price is the read on whether Bacon’s crossover appeal leaves with him.
Live NE-02 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyThe NE-02 House market is quiet right now — no priced contracts came back on the last refresh. District markets are thinner than statewide races; check the full midterms board for every live race.
NE-02 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the NE-02 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Nebraska’s 2nd District) is held by Don Bacon (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the NE-02 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the NE-02 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the NE-02 contract this cycle.
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