NE-02
NE-02 House winner? (2026)
63k contracts traded · 46k open
NE-02 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
NE-02 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Nebraska’s 2nd District
Nebraska’s 2nd — the Omaha “blue dot” — opens up with Republican Don Bacon’s exit, and the market prices the Democratic side as a clear favorite to claim it. An open swing seat in a ticket-splitting district, in a midterm tilted toward Democrats, is a natural flip; the contract has Denise Powell (D) well ahead of Brinker Harding (R). The live price is the read on whether Bacon’s crossover appeal leaves with him.
Currently represented by Don Bacon (R)
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Denise Powell leads the NE-02 House market at 86¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 86%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Don Bacon (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live NE-02 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
NE-02 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the NE-02 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Nebraska’s 2nd District) is held by Don Bacon (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the NE-02 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the NE-02 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the NE-02 contract this cycle.
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