MI-07
MI-07 House winner? (2026)
21k contracts traded · 12k open
MI-07 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
MI-07 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Michigan’s 7th District
Michigan’s 7th, a Lansing-area swing seat Republican Tom Barrett won when it came open, prices as a likely Democratic flip in 2026 — the market has the Democratic side well into favorite range. A first-term incumbent in a genuine toss-up district facing a midterm headwind is the recurring flip setup on this board. The live contract tracks how much of that headwind is real.
Currently represented by Tom Barrett (R)
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, William Lawrence leads the MI-07 House market at 64¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 64%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Tom Barrett (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live MI-07 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
MI-07 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the MI-07 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Michigan’s 7th District) is held by Tom Barrett (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the MI-07 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the MI-07 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the MI-07 contract this cycle.
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