MI-07
MI-07 House winner? (2026)
9.7k contracts traded · 6.9k open
MI-07 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
MI-07 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Michigan’s 7th District
Michigan’s 7th, a Lansing-area swing seat Republican Tom Barrett won when it came open, prices as a likely Democratic flip in 2026 — the market has the Democratic side well into favorite range. A first-term incumbent in a genuine toss-up district facing a midterm headwind is the recurring flip setup on this board. The live contract tracks how much of that headwind is real.
Currently represented by Tom Barrett (R)
Live MI-07 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
MI-07 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the MI-07 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Michigan’s 7th District) is held by Tom Barrett (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the MI-07 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the MI-07 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the MI-07 contract this cycle.
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