MI-07
MI-07 House winner? (2026)
87k contracts traded · 65k open
MI-07 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
MI-07 House Race 2026: William Lawrence vs Tom Barrett Odds
Michigan’s 7th District
Michigan’s 7th, a Lansing-area swing seat Republican Tom Barrett won when it came open, prices as a likely Democratic flip in 2026 — the market has the Democratic side well into favorite range. A first-term incumbent in a genuine toss-up district facing a midterm headwind is the recurring flip setup on this board. The live contract tracks how much of that headwind is real.
Currently represented by Tom Barrett (R)
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, William Lawrence leads the MI-07 House market at 63¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 63%.
Seat currently held by Tom Barrett (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 6:22 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in MI-07
William Lawrence
Democrat63¢
Tom Barrett
Republican38¢
Live MI-07 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so Lawrence at 63¢ is a 63% implied chance. That sits 13 points from a 50¢ coin flip.
MI-07 by the numbers
- Where the price sits
- William Lawrence (D) leads MI-07 at 63¢ — a 63% implied chance, against Tom Barrett (R) at 38¢. Quoted book: Lawrence 62¢ bid / 63¢ ask; Barrett 37¢ bid / 38¢ ask.
- How close it is
- 4th-closest of the 65 House district markets we track, by the favorite’s distance from 50¢.
- Money behind it
- 64,982 contracts of open interest and 86,843 traded over the market’s life (418 in the last 24 hours) — the 21st-deepest of those 65 by open interest. By contract: William Lawrence 34,669, Tom Barrett 30,313.
- How it has moved
- Lawrence’s contract last closed at 62¢ on Oct 14: +2 points since Oct 7 (60¢ → 62¢); +10 since Sep 14, the start of the window we hold (52¢).
- Rating vs market
- The Cook Political Report rated MI-07 a GOP toss-up in its Mar 12 2026 House ratings. The market today has Lawrence 13 points past a coin flip — leaning off what a toss-up call implies.
- Seat status
- Incumbent defense — Tom Barrett is a nominee.
- Michigan’s House map
- Michigan sends 13 members to the House; 4 other Michigan districts trade on our board: MI-04 (Huizenga 53¢), MI-10 (Hines 65¢), MI-03 (Scholten 94¢), MI-08 (Rivet 96¢).
- Up the ballot
- Michigan Senate — Abdul El-Sayed (D) 69¢; Michigan governor — Jocelyn Benson (D) 94¢.
MI-07 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the MI-07 House race in 2026?
As of October 15, 2026, Kalshi prices William Lawrence (D) at 63¢ — a 63% implied chance — to win the MI-07 House race; Tom Barrett (R) is at 38¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously.
Who is running in MI-07 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the MI-07 House race are William Lawrence (Democrat) and Tom Barrett (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the MI-07 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists MI-07 under event HOUSEMI7-26 as 2 YES contracts: William Lawrence (HOUSEMI7-26-D) and Tom Barrett (HOUSEMI7-26-R). Each settles at $1 if its candidate wins and $0 if not, so buying Lawrence at 63¢ risks 63¢ to collect $1 — worth it only if you put Lawrence’s chance above 63%. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states.
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