CA-45
CA-45 House winner? (2026)
101k contracts traded · 75k open
CA-45 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
CA-45 House Race 2026: Derek Tran vs Chuong Vo Odds
California’s 45th District
California’s 45th, an Orange County district Democrat Derek Tran won narrowly, prices as a likely hold — the Democratic side sits deep in favorite range despite the seat’s toss-up reputation. A midterm environment tilting toward the out-party turns a knife-edge win into a comfortable-looking contract. Watch whether Republicans can drag it back toward the fundamentals; the market says they haven’t yet.
Currently represented by Derek Tran (D)
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Derek Tran leads the CA-45 House market at 92¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 92%.
Seat currently held by Derek Tran (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 5:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in CA-45
Derek Tran
Democrat92¢
Chuong Vo
Republican9¢
Live CA-45 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
CA-45 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the CA-45 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (California’s 45th District) is held by Derek Tran (Democrat); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in CA-45 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the CA-45 House race are Derek Tran (Democrat) and Chuong Vo (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the CA-45 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the CA-45 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the CA-45 contract this cycle.
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