IA-01
IA-01 House winner? (2026)
7.5k contracts traded · 4.0k open
IA-01 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Lean D
IA-01 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Iowa’s 1st District
Iowa’s 1st is a rematch: Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks survived Democrat Christina Bohannan by a few hundred votes last cycle, and the 2026 market flips the script, pricing Bohannan as the favorite this time. A contest decided by a rounding error, re-run in a midterm tilted against the incumbent’s party, is precisely the kind of race the board rewards you for reading closely. The live price is the number to trust over any single poll.
Currently represented by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Quick Answer
As of August 28, 2026, Christina Bohannan leads the IA-01 House market at 77¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 77%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live IA-01 House Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
IA-01 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the IA-01 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Iowa’s 1st District) is held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Republican) and rated lean d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the IA-01 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the IA-01 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the IA-01 contract this cycle.
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