PA-07
PA-07 House winner? (2026)
342k contracts traded · 149k open
PA-07 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
PA-07 House Race 2026: Bob Brooks vs Ryan Mackenzie Odds
Pennsylvania’s 7th District
Pennsylvania’s 7th, a Lehigh Valley seat Republican Ryan Mackenzie won by inches, prices as a likely Democratic flip — the market has Democrat Bob Brooks ahead. A first-term incumbent who won a squeaker, running in a midterm tilted against his party, is the board’s recurring flip profile. The live contract is the read on whether the Valley snaps back to its Democratic lean.
Currently represented by Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Quick Answer
As of October 11, 2026, Bob Brooks leads the PA-07 House market at 86¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 86%.
Seat currently held by Ryan Mackenzie (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 11, 8:37 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in PA-07
Bob Brooks
Democrat86¢
Ryan Mackenzie
Republican14¢
Live PA-07 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
PA-07 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the PA-07 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Pennsylvania’s 7th District) is held by Ryan Mackenzie (Republican); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in PA-07 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the PA-07 House race are Bob Brooks (Democrat) and Ryan Mackenzie (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the PA-07 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the PA-07 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the PA-07 contract this cycle.
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