PA-07
PA-07 House winner? (2026)
342k contracts traded · 149k open
PA-07 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
PA-07 House Race 2026: Bob Brooks vs Ryan Mackenzie Odds
Pennsylvania’s 7th District
Pennsylvania’s 7th, a Lehigh Valley seat Republican Ryan Mackenzie won by inches, prices as a likely Democratic flip — the market has Democrat Bob Brooks ahead. A first-term incumbent who won a squeaker, running in a midterm tilted against his party, is the board’s recurring flip profile. The live contract is the read on whether the Valley snaps back to its Democratic lean.
Currently represented by Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, Bob Brooks leads the PA-07 House market at 87¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 87%.
Seat currently held by Ryan Mackenzie (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 5:22 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in PA-07
Bob Brooks
Democrat87¢
Ryan Mackenzie
Republican13¢
Live PA-07 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so Brooks at 87¢ is an 87% implied chance. That sits 37 points from a 50¢ coin flip.
PA-07 by the numbers
- Where the price sits
- Bob Brooks (D) leads PA-07 at 87¢ — an 87% implied chance, against Ryan Mackenzie (R) at 13¢. Quoted book: Brooks 86¢ bid / 87¢ ask; Mackenzie 12¢ bid / 13¢ ask.
- How close it is
- 25th-closest of the 65 House district markets we track, by the favorite’s distance from 50¢.
- Money behind it
- 149,164 contracts of open interest and 341,750 traded over the market’s life (11 in the last 24 hours) — the 8th-deepest of those 65 by open interest. By contract: Bob Brooks 77,457, Ryan Mackenzie 71,707.
- How it has moved
- Brooks’s contract last closed at 87¢ on Oct 14: 0 points since Oct 7 (87¢ → 87¢); +13 since Sep 14, the start of the window we hold (74¢).
- Rating vs market
- The Cook Political Report rated PA-07 a GOP toss-up in its Mar 12 2026 House ratings. The market today has Brooks 37 points past a coin flip — well beyond what a toss-up call implies.
- Seat status
- Incumbent defense — Ryan Mackenzie is a nominee.
- Pennsylvania’s House map
- Pennsylvania sends 17 members to the House; 4 other Pennsylvania districts trade on our board: PA-01 (Fitzpatrick 64¢), PA-08 (Cognetti 74¢), PA-10 (Stelson 81¢), PA-17 (Deluzio 95¢).
- Up the ballot
- Pennsylvania governor — Josh Shapiro (D) 98¢.
PA-07 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the PA-07 House race in 2026?
As of October 15, 2026, Kalshi prices Bob Brooks (D) at 87¢ — a 87% implied chance — to win the PA-07 House race; Ryan Mackenzie (R) is at 13¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously.
Who is running in PA-07 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the PA-07 House race are Bob Brooks (Democrat) and Ryan Mackenzie (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the PA-07 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists PA-07 under event HOUSEPA7-26 as 2 YES contracts: Bob Brooks (HOUSEPA7-26-D) and Ryan Mackenzie (HOUSEPA7-26-R). Each settles at $1 if its candidate wins and $0 if not, so buying Brooks at 87¢ risks 87¢ to collect $1 — worth it only if you put Brooks’s chance above 87%. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states.
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