AZ-01
AZ-01 House winner? (2026)
105k contracts traded · 74k open
AZ-01 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
AZ-01 House Race 2026: Amish Shah vs Jay Feely Odds
Arizona’s 1st District
Arizona’s 1st is a suburban Phoenix district Republican David Schweikert has held through a string of nail-biters, and the 2026 market treats his luck as running short — the Democratic side prices as a clear favorite to flip it. Schweikert’s history of surviving on thin margins is exactly why the contract stays worth watching rather than writing off. Read the live board as the market’s real-time referendum on whether the district’s demographic drift finally catches up with the incumbent.
Currently represented by David Schweikert (R)
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Amish Shah leads the AZ-01 House market at 78¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 78%.
Seat currently held by David Schweikert (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 5:22 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in AZ-01
Amish Shah
Democrat78¢
Jay Feely
Republican23¢
Live AZ-01 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
AZ-01 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the AZ-01 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Arizona’s 1st District) is held by David Schweikert (Republican); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in AZ-01 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the AZ-01 House race are Amish Shah (Democrat) and Jay Feely (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the AZ-01 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the AZ-01 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the AZ-01 contract this cycle.
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