AZ-01
AZ-01 House winner? (2026)
9.8k contracts traded · 7.9k open
AZ-01 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Lean D
AZ-01 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Arizona’s 1st District
Arizona’s 1st is a suburban Phoenix district Republican David Schweikert has held through a string of nail-biters, and the 2026 market treats his luck as running short — the Democratic side prices as a clear favorite to flip it. Schweikert’s history of surviving on thin margins is exactly why the contract stays worth watching rather than writing off. Read the live board as the market’s real-time referendum on whether the district’s demographic drift finally catches up with the incumbent.
Currently represented by David Schweikert (R)
Live AZ-01 House Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
AZ-01 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the AZ-01 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Arizona’s 1st District) is held by David Schweikert (Republican) and rated lean d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the AZ-01 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the AZ-01 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the AZ-01 contract this cycle.
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