PA-10
PA-10 House winner? (2026)
16k contracts traded · 8.8k open
PA-10 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Lean D
PA-10 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Pennsylvania’s 10th District
Pennsylvania’s 10th is the marquee grudge match: Republican Scott Perry narrowly held off Democrat Janelle Stelson last cycle, and the 2026 market flips the favorite to Stelson in the rematch. A high-profile incumbent in a Harrisburg-area swing seat, re-run in a hostile midterm, is exactly the kind of race the board reprices hard. The live price is the number to trust over the noise.
Currently represented by Scott Perry (R)
Quick Answer
As of August 28, 2026, Janelle Stelson leads the PA-10 House market at 78¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 78%. Forecasters rate the seat Lean D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Scott Perry (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live PA-10 House Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
PA-10 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the PA-10 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Pennsylvania’s 10th District) is held by Scott Perry (Republican) and rated lean d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the PA-10 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the PA-10 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the PA-10 contract this cycle.
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