OH-09
OH-09 House winner? (2026)
94k contracts traded · 56k open
OH-09 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
OH-09 House Race 2026: Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin Odds
Ohio’s 9th District
Ohio’s 9th pits the House’s longest-serving woman, Democrat Marcy Kaptur, against Republican Derek Merrin in a Toledo-area seat a GOP redraw made tougher — and the market still prices Kaptur as the favorite. Kaptur has out-run brutal district maps for decades; the contract prices whether she can pull it off once more. Read the live number against how aggressively the new lines cut against her.
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur (D)
Quick Answer
As of October 15, 2026, Marcy Kaptur leads the OH-09 House market at 72¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 72%.
Seat currently held by Marcy Kaptur (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 15, 5:07 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in OH-09
Marcy Kaptur
Democrat72¢
Derek Merrin
Republican28¢
Live OH-09 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so Kaptur at 72¢ is a 72% implied chance. That sits 22 points from a 50¢ coin flip.
OH-09 by the numbers
- Where the price sits
- Marcy Kaptur (D) leads OH-09 at 72¢ — a 72% implied chance, against Derek Merrin (R) at 28¢. Quoted book: Kaptur 71¢ bid / 73¢ ask; Merrin 27¢ bid / 29¢ ask.
- How close it is
- 11th-closest of the 65 House district markets we track (level with 1 other), by the favorite’s distance from 50¢.
- Money behind it
- 56,413 contracts of open interest and 93,674 traded over the market’s life (3,541 in the last 24 hours) — the 23rd-deepest of those 65 by open interest. By contract: Marcy Kaptur 29,525, Derek Merrin 26,888.
- How it has moved
- Kaptur’s contract last closed at 73¢ on Oct 14: +3 points since Oct 7 (70¢ → 73¢); +4 since Sep 14, the start of the window we hold (69¢).
- Rating vs market
- The Cook Political Report rated OH-09 a Dem toss-up in its Mar 12 2026 House ratings. The market today has Kaptur 22 points past a coin flip — well beyond what a toss-up call implies.
- Seat status
- Incumbent defense — Marcy Kaptur is a nominee.
- Ohio’s House map
- Ohio sends 15 members to the House; 2 other Ohio districts trade on our board: OH-01 (Landsman 90¢), OH-13 (Sykes 96¢). Ohio’s map is final: court-required redraw targeting OH-09 (Kaptur) & OH-13 (Sykes) (net effect +2 R).
- Up the ballot
- Ohio Senate — Sherrod Brown (D) 60¢; Ohio governor — Amy Acton (D) 69¢.
OH-09 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the OH-09 House race in 2026?
As of October 15, 2026, Kalshi prices Marcy Kaptur (D) at 72¢ — a 72% implied chance — to win the OH-09 House race; Derek Merrin (R) is at 28¢. Each contract pays $1 if its side wins, so the price in cents is the market’s probability, and it reprices continuously.
Who is running in OH-09 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the OH-09 House race are Marcy Kaptur (Democrat) and Derek Merrin (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the OH-09 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists OH-09 under event HOUSEOH9-26 as 2 YES contracts: Marcy Kaptur (HOUSEOH9-26-D) and Derek Merrin (HOUSEOH9-26-R). Each settles at $1 if its candidate wins and $0 if not, so buying Kaptur at 72¢ risks 72¢ to collect $1 — worth it only if you put Kaptur’s chance above 72%. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states.
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