OH-09 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Ohio’s 9th District
Ohio’s 9th pits the House’s longest-serving woman, Democrat Marcy Kaptur, against Republican Derek Merrin in a Toledo-area seat a GOP redraw made tougher — and the market still prices Kaptur as the favorite. Kaptur has out-run brutal district maps for decades; the contract prices whether she can pull it off once more. Read the live number against how aggressively the new lines cut against her.
Live OH-09 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyThe OH-09 House market is quiet right now — no priced contracts came back on the last refresh. District markets are thinner than statewide races; check the full midterms board for every live race.
OH-09 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the OH-09 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Ohio’s 9th District) is held by Marcy Kaptur (Democrat) and rated lean d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the OH-09 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the OH-09 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the OH-09 contract this cycle.
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