OH-09
OH-09 House winner? (2026)
89k contracts traded · 55k open
OH-09 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
OH-09 House Race 2026: Marcy Kaptur vs Derek Merrin Odds
Ohio’s 9th District
Ohio’s 9th pits the House’s longest-serving woman, Democrat Marcy Kaptur, against Republican Derek Merrin in a Toledo-area seat a GOP redraw made tougher — and the market still prices Kaptur as the favorite. Kaptur has out-run brutal district maps for decades; the contract prices whether she can pull it off once more. Read the live number against how aggressively the new lines cut against her.
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur (D)
Quick Answer
As of October 12, 2026, Marcy Kaptur leads the OH-09 House market at 71¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 71%.
Seat currently held by Marcy Kaptur (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 5:22 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in OH-09
Marcy Kaptur
Democrat71¢
Derek Merrin
Republican28¢
Live OH-09 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
OH-09 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the OH-09 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Ohio’s 9th District) is held by Marcy Kaptur (Democrat); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in OH-09 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the OH-09 House race are Marcy Kaptur (Democrat) and Derek Merrin (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the OH-09 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the OH-09 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the OH-09 contract this cycle.
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