AZ-06
AZ-06 House winner? (2026)
15k contracts traded · 7.3k open
AZ-06 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
AZ-06 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Arizona’s 6th District
Arizona’s 6th, held by Republican Juan Ciscomani in a Tucson-anchored swing district, is one of the House seats the market most expects to flip — the Democratic side prices well into favorite territory. A young incumbency in a district Democrats have carried at the top of the ticket is the classic midterm-flip setup, and the contract reflects it. The live price is the number to watch as the challenger field firms up.
Currently represented by Juan Ciscomani (R)
Live AZ-06 House Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
AZ-06 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the AZ-06 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Arizona’s 6th District) is held by Juan Ciscomani (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the AZ-06 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the AZ-06 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the AZ-06 contract this cycle.
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