AZ-06
AZ-06 House winner? (2026)
18k contracts traded · 9.3k open
AZ-06 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Likely D
AZ-06 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
Arizona’s 6th District
Arizona’s 6th, held by Republican Juan Ciscomani in a Tucson-anchored swing district, is one of the House seats the market most expects to flip — the Democratic side prices well into favorite territory. A young incumbency in a district Democrats have carried at the top of the ticket is the classic midterm-flip setup, and the contract reflects it. The live price is the number to watch as the challenger field firms up.
Currently represented by Juan Ciscomani (R)
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, JoAnna Mendoza leads the AZ-06 House market at 82¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 82%. Forecasters rate the seat Likely D, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Juan Ciscomani (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live AZ-06 House Market
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How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
AZ-06 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the AZ-06 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Arizona’s 6th District) is held by Juan Ciscomani (Republican) and rated likely d; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the AZ-06 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the AZ-06 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the AZ-06 contract this cycle.
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