CA-13
CA-13 House winner? (2026)
30k contracts traded · 12k open
CA-13 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
CA-13 House Race 2026: Adam Gray vs Kevin Lincoln Odds
California’s 13th District
California’s 13th, a Central Valley district Democrat Adam Gray flipped by a hair, now prices as a hold rather than the toss-up its Cook rating implies — the market has the Democratic side deep in favorite territory. Incumbency plus a favorable midterm environment does the work here. The contract reads more as a barometer of how safe the Democratic House map is than a live coin flip.
Currently represented by Adam Gray (D)
Quick Answer
As of October 11, 2026, Adam Gray leads the CA-13 House market at 96¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 96%.
Seat currently held by Adam Gray (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 12, 1:52 AM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in CA-13
Adam Gray
Democrat96¢
Kevin Lincoln
Republican4¢
Live CA-13 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
CA-13 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the CA-13 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (California’s 13th District) is held by Adam Gray (Democrat); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in CA-13 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the CA-13 House race are Adam Gray (Democrat) and Kevin Lincoln (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the CA-13 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the CA-13 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the CA-13 contract this cycle.
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