NC-01
NC-01 House winner? (2026)
53k contracts traded · 40k open
NC-01 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourlyRating: Toss-up
NC-01 House Race 2026 — Live Prediction Market Odds
North Carolina’s 1st District
North Carolina’s 1st is the closest thing to a true coin flip on the House board — Democrat Don Davis defends a redrawn eastern-Carolina seat against Republican Laurie Buckhout, and the contract sits near even money. A new GOP map made this the seat Republicans most want, and the market treats it as genuinely up for grabs. When a contract prices near 50¢, the venue is telling you it honestly does not know.
Currently represented by Donald Davis (D)
Quick Answer
As of August 27, 2026, Don Davis leads the NC-01 House market at 61¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 61%. Forecasters rate the seat Toss-up, so the gap between that rating and this price is the whole question.
Seat currently held by Donald Davis (D).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Live NC-01 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
NC-01 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the NC-01 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (North Carolina’s 1st District) is held by Donald Davis (Democrat) and rated toss-up; because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
How do I trade the NC-01 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the NC-01 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the NC-01 contract this cycle.
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