2028 Presidential Election Tracker
Real-time prediction market probabilities for the 2028 US presidential election — sourced from Polymarket, updated every 5 minutes.
POLITICS
Live prediction market odds for 2028 — updated daily
What is this?
2028 is far away, but early money is already moving. This tracker aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket odds for 2028 presidential contenders. Early markets have the widest mispricings — because the crowd knows less.
If you get in early on the right candidate at 8¢ who eventually wins at 100¢, that's a 12.5x return. The risk is real — but so is the opportunity. This is the time to research, not after the primary.
Real-World Example
→ The Long Bet
A governor has a strong economic record and is popular in swing states. The tracker shows them at 9¢ to win the Dem primary — essentially 9% odds. Most people haven't heard of them yet.
Six months later after good press and endorsements, they're at 28¢. You bought at 9¢ and can sell at 28¢ now — a 3x return — without waiting for the election to resolve.
✅Action: Think of early political markets like buying stock before a company gets popular. Research now, profit later.
Bottom line: Early political markets are inefficient. Early research + patience = outsized returns.
Full guide →Quick Answer
this page shows live 2028 presidential nomination and general-election probabilities from Polymarket and Kalshi, updated as real money moves. It reads off who traders currently price as the Republican and Democratic front-runners — not a forecast, but the crowd's money-weighted odds right now.
Polymarket's 2028 presidential markets see hundreds of thousands of dollars in daily trading volume — far more than any prediction market exchange covers this cycle. Each contract is a binary: it pays $1 if the candidate wins, $0 if they don't. The market price is the crowd's consensus probability, updated in real time. This tracker surfaces the most liquid markets so you can see where real money is going.
Source: Polymarket · Updated 9:05 PM EDT
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Why use prediction markets for 2028 election odds?
Polls measure opinion. Prediction markets measure conviction. On Polymarket, a trader who thinks Gavin Newsom will win the 2028 Democratic nomination puts actual money behind that belief — and loses it if they're wrong. This skin-in-the-game dynamic forces price discovery that polls can't replicate.
In the 2024 cycle, prediction markets correctly anticipated Trump's victory weeks before polls showed a meaningful shift. For 2028, markets are already active with $500K+ in daily volume across the top candidate markets.
How to read nomination vs. general election odds
There are two distinct market types to watch:
- Nomination markets— "Will [candidate] win the [party] presidential nomination?" These pay out if the candidate wins the primary. JD Vance leads Republicans at ~37%. Gavin Newsom leads Democrats at ~25%.
- General election markets— "Will [candidate] win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" These require winning both the primary and the general. Lower probabilities because there are two hurdles to clear.
Embed this 2028 election tracker
Click the Embed button above. The head-to-head bar (vs-bar) shows the top two candidates side by side — perfect for political blog sidebars and newsletter headers. One iframe, no maintenance, auto-updates from live market data.
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