2028 Presidential Election Tracker

Polymarket's 2028 presidential markets see hundreds of thousands of dollars in daily trading volume — far more than any betting exchange covers this cycle. Each contract is a binary: it pays $1 if the candidate wins, $0 if they don't. The market price is the crowd's consensus probability, updated in real time. This tracker surfaces the most liquid markets so you can see where real money is going.

Why use prediction markets for 2028 election odds?

Polls measure opinion. Prediction markets measure conviction. On Polymarket, a trader who thinks Gavin Newsom will win the 2028 Democratic nomination puts actual money behind that belief — and loses it if they're wrong. This skin-in-the-game dynamic forces price discovery that polls can't replicate.

In the 2024 cycle, prediction markets correctly anticipated Trump's victory weeks before polls showed a meaningful shift. For 2028, markets are already active with $500K+ in daily volume across the top candidate markets.

How to read nomination vs. general election odds

There are two distinct market types to watch:

• Nomination markets— "Will [candidate] win the [party] presidential nomination?" These pay out if the candidate wins the primary. JD Vance leads Republicans at ~37%. Gavin Newsom leads Democrats at ~25%.
• General election markets— "Will [candidate] win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" These require winning both the primary and the general. Lower probabilities because there are two hurdles to clear.

Embed this 2028 election tracker

Click the Embed button above. The head-to-head bar (vs-bar) shows the top two candidates side by side — perfect for political blog sidebars and newsletter headers. One iframe, no maintenance, auto-updates from live market data.