2028 Presidential Election Tracker
Real-time prediction market probabilities for the 2028 US presidential election — sourced from Polymarket, updated every 5 minutes.
POLITICS
Live prediction market odds for 2028 — updated daily
What is this?
2028 is far away, but early money is already moving. This tracker aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket odds for 2028 presidential contenders. Early markets have the widest mispricings — because the crowd knows less.
If you get in early on the right candidate at 8¢ who eventually wins at 100¢, that's a 12.5x return. The risk is real — but so is the opportunity. This is the time to research, not after the primary.
Real-World Example
→ The Long Bet
A governor has a strong economic record and is popular in swing states. The tracker shows them at 9¢ to win the Dem primary — essentially 9% odds. Most people haven't heard of them yet.
Six months later after good press and endorsements, they're at 28¢. You bought at 9¢ and can sell at 28¢ now — a 3x return — without waiting for the election to resolve.
✅Action: Think of early political markets like buying stock before a company gets popular. Research now, profit later.
Bottom line: Early political markets are inefficient. Early research + patience = outsized returns.
Full guide →Quick Answer
this page shows live 2028 presidential nomination and general-election probabilities from Polymarket and Kalshi, updated as real money moves. It reads off who traders currently price as the Republican and Democratic front-runners — not a forecast, but the crowd's money-weighted odds right now.
Polymarket's 2028 presidential markets see hundreds of thousands of dollars in daily trading volume — far more than any prediction market exchange covers this cycle. Each contract is a binary: it pays $1 if the candidate wins, $0 if they don't. The market price is the crowd's consensus probability, updated in real time. This tracker surfaces the most liquid markets so you can see where real money is going.
Source: Polymarket · Updated 1:05 AM EDT
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in August 2026?
cnbc: 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.33%, new 19-year high, on inflation and spending concerns
Will the S&P 500 be between 9200 and 9399.99 on Dec 31, 2027 at 4pm EST?
bbc: Chinese robotics giant Unitree soars in stock market debut
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-10 House seat?
washpost: Key witness in Trump impeachment trial loses to democratic socialist in Florida Senate primary. See …
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
npr: Embattled Florida Republican Rep. Cory Mills loses his fight to keep his House seat
News the market hasn't priced yet · Oracle v2 · updates every 15 min
Related Tools
Why use prediction markets for 2028 election odds?
Polls measure opinion. Prediction markets measure conviction. On Polymarket, a trader who thinks Gavin Newsom will win the 2028 Democratic nomination puts actual money behind that belief — and loses it if they're wrong. This skin-in-the-game dynamic forces price discovery that polls can't replicate.
In the 2024 cycle, prediction markets correctly anticipated Trump's victory weeks before polls showed a meaningful shift. For 2028, markets are already active with $500K+ in daily volume across the top candidate markets.
How to read nomination vs. general election odds
There are two distinct market types to watch:
- Nomination markets — "Will [candidate] win the [party] presidential nomination?" These pay out if the candidate wins the primary. JD Vance leads Republicans at ~37%. Gavin Newsom leads Democrats at ~25%.
- General election markets — "Will [candidate] win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" These require winning both the primary and the general. Lower probabilities because there are two hurdles to clear.
Embed this 2028 election tracker
Click the Embed button above. The head-to-head bar (vs-bar) shows the top two candidates side by side — perfect for political blog sidebars and newsletter headers. One iframe, no maintenance, auto-updates from live market data.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 presidential election?
Polymarket prediction markets currently show JD Vance as the leading Republican candidate for the 2028 nomination at approximately 37%, while Gavin Newsom leads Democratic probabilities at around 25%. General election winner markets show Newsom as the current frontrunner with roughly 17% probability. These prices update continuously as new information emerges.
How accurate are prediction markets for presidential elections?
Prediction markets have historically outperformed polls and pundit forecasts in US presidential elections. Polymarket sees hundreds of thousands of dollars in daily trading volume on 2028 markets, making the prices meaningfully informed. However, with 2+ years until the election, uncertainty is high — treat these as probability estimates, not certainties.
What is the difference between nomination odds and general election odds?
Nomination odds (e.g., "Will Gavin Newsom win the Democratic nomination?") measure only whether a candidate wins their party primary. General election odds (e.g., "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?") factor in both winning the nomination and the general election. The general election probability is always lower since it requires clearing two hurdles.
Can I embed this 2028 election tracker on my site?
Yes — click the Embed button to get a free iframe. Choose the head-to-head bar (vs-bar) to show top candidates side by side, or the timeline to show how probabilities have shifted. Paste one line of code. No API key or signup required.
Get The 7 Oracles' daily edge — subscribe free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.