POLYMARKET USTop 12 of 18 contenders
2028 General Election Winner — Polymarket US
Top contenders by Polymarket US implied probability.
2028 PRESIDENTLive · 5-min refresh78 tradeable contracts
2028 Presidential Prediction Markets
Real-money positioning across the 2028 race — Democratic nominee, Republican nominee, general-election winner, plus the Trump-term contracts (impeachment-by-deadline, leaves-office binaries, 25th Amendment). Side-by-side Kalshi and Polymarket US prices side by side.
Updated Nov 6, 2:25 PM UTC
Kalshi and Polymarket US both list the 2028 presidential race. As of Nov 6, 3:21 AM ET, the leading Democratic nominee is Jon Ossoff at 27% and the leading Republican nominee is JD Vance at 31% on Polymarket US; Polymarket US also lists 18 state markets. Each price is an implied probability.
2028 Odds After the Midterms
Kalshi’s ladder got a new leader. Jon Ossoff, who won the Georgia Senate race, passed J.D. Vance, and the Democratic Sweep contract gained 12¢. These prices are a dated record, 9:30 AM ET Nov. 3 to 9:30 AM ET Nov. 4, 2026. The ladders below are live.
| Candidate | Nov. 3 | Nov. 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon OssoffWon Georgia Senate | 12¢ | 17¢ | +5¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 20¢ | 13¢ | −7¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 15¢ | 13¢ | −2¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 12¢ | 12¢ | 0¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9¢ | 11¢ | +2¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 3¢ | 6¢ | +3¢ |
| James TalaricoWon Texas Senate | 3¢ | 4¢ | +1¢ |
| Josh ShapiroWon Pennsylvania Governor | 3¢ | 3¢ | 0¢ |
| Contract | Nov. 3 | Nov. 4 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Sweep | 55¢ | 67¢ | +12¢ |
| Republican Sweep | 14¢ | 8¢ | −6¢ |
| D-House, R-Senate, D-President | 10¢ | 2¢ | −8¢ |
| D-House, R-Senate, R-President | 9¢ | 1¢ | −8¢ |
| R-House, D-Senate, R-President | 2¢ | 7¢ | +5¢ |
| D-House, D-Senate, R-President | 3¢ | 6¢ | +3¢ |
Who Wins the Presidency in 2028?
The same race on both venues.Each contract pays $1 if that candidate wins the November 2028 general election. The price is the market’s implied probability — a 22¢ contract is a 22% chance. Kalshi and Polymarket US are separate exchanges with their own books, so the same name can carry a different price.
All markets →
KALSHITop 12 of 32 contenders
2028 General Election Winner — Kalshi
KXPRESPERSON-28 candidate ladder. CFTC-regulated; available in most states, with sports contracts restricted in some.
- 1Jon Ossoff23¢$6.2M contracts
- 2J.D. Vance12¢$5.2M contracts
- 3Marco Rubio11¢$6.2M contracts
- 4Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10¢$4.9M contracts
- 5Gavin Newsom8¢$5.2M contracts
- 6Ron DeSantis6¢$3.5M contracts
- 7James Talarico3¢$3.1M contracts
- 8Kamala Harris3¢$3.4M contracts
- 9Andy Beshear3¢$2.7M contracts
- 10Pete Buttigieg3¢$2.7M contracts
- 11Josh Shapiro3¢$2.5M contracts
- 12Raphael Warnock2¢$146K contracts
Nomination Markets
Conditional pay-out: wins primary only.Nomination contracts pay $1 if that candidate wins the party primary — full stop, regardless of November. The implied conditional “wins general given nomination” is the general-election price divided by the nomination price. Big numbers there flag a candidate the market thinks would clean up if they got the ticket.
POLYMARKET US
Democratic 2028 Nominee — Polymarket US
Who wins the Democratic Party nomination?
POLYMARKET US
Republican 2028 Nominee — Polymarket US
Who wins the Republican Party nomination?
Polymarket US as of Nov 6, 3:21 AM ET or later.
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
2028 Odds by State
| State | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 16% | — |
| Arizona | 50% | — |
| Florida | 16% | — |
| Georgia | 65% | 5% |
| Iowa | 23% | — |
| Maine | 80% | — |
| Michigan | 61% | — |
| Minnesota | 78% | 1% |
| Nevada | 58% | 38% |
| New Hampshire | — | 3% |
| New Jersey | — | 14% |
| New Mexico | — | — |
| North Carolina | — | 47% |
| Ohio | 35% | 61% |
| Pennsylvania | 67% | — |
| Texas | 33% | 67% |
| Virginia | 76% | 16% |
| Wisconsin | — | 33% |
Polymarket US as of Nov 6, 3:21 AM ET.
Does Trump Finish His Term?
2 markets liveKalshi runs a ladder of impeachment-by-deadline binaries (KXIMPEACH-{YY}-{MMM01}) plus a single resignation binary (KXTRUMPRESIGN). Each one resolves YES if the trigger event happens before its deadline. Read the resolution criteria carefully — some impeachment contracts require Senate conviction, others trigger on a House vote alone. These markets stay quiet most of the year and spike around news cycles, which is exactly when the spreads get interesting.
Impeach by
Will the President be impeached before ?
Before Jan 1, 202865¢Before Oct 1, 202756¢Before Aug 1, 202750¢Before Jul 1, 202742¢Before Jun 1, 202741¢Before May 1, 202730¢Before Apr 1, 202726¢Before Mar 1, 202712¢Before Feb 1, 20273¢Before Jan 1, 20271¢
4670k contracts traded · 1907k open
Trump Resigns
Will Trump resign before his term ends?
664k contracts traded · 249k open
How to Read These Markets
Price = ProbabilityA 22¢ Yes contract is a 22% implied chance. It pays $1 if the event happens and $0 if it does not.
Two Venues, Two BooksKalshi and Polymarket US price the race separately, so the same name can differ between them.
Lifetime > 24h VolumeThe 2028 cycle is far out, so 24h flow is thin. Lifetime volume and open interest say more about these markets.
2028 Presidential Markets — FAQ
How did the 2028 odds move after the midterms?
On Kalshi, Jon Ossoff went from 12¢ to 17¢ and took the top of the ladder, and J.D. Vance fell from 20¢ to 13¢, between 9:30 AM ET on Nov. 3 and 9:30 AM ET on Nov. 4, 2026. The Democratic Sweep contract on the 2028 Trifecta rose from 55¢ to 67¢. Those are dated prices; the ladders on this page are live.
Who is favored to win the 2028 US presidential election?
The ladders on this page show the current price for every named candidate on Kalshi and Polymarket US, with each price read as an implied probability. The leader has already changed once, on the night of the 2026 midterms, so read today's number off the board rather than this sentence.
How do nomination odds differ from general election odds?
Nomination markets pay $1 if the candidate wins their party primary. General-election markets pay $1 only if they win the primary AND the general. The general-election number is always lower than the nomination number for the same candidate — you're clearing two hurdles instead of one. The implied conditional probability of winning the general given the nomination is general / nomination.
What are the odds Trump finishes his second term?
Kalshi runs a series of impeachment-by-deadline binaries (KXIMPEACH-26-*, KXIMPEACH-27-*, plus the term-end roll KXIMPEACH-29-JAN20) and a single resignation binary (KXTRUMPRESIGN — pays $1 if Trump resigns before his term ends). Each contract resolves on a clear trigger event by a specific date. Volume tends to spike around news cycles. Always read the contract's resolution criteria — some impeachment markets require Senate conviction, others trigger on a House vote alone.
Are 2028 election prediction markets legal in the US?
Yes. Kalshi and Polymarket US are both CFTC-regulated exchanges open to US traders, and both list 2028 nominee and general-election contracts. Polymarket US also lists state-by-state 2028 markets. Polymarket US is available in every state except Nevada.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Both Kalshi and Polymarket.com called all seven swing states correctly the night before. Polymarket.com had Trump at 61¢ on election eve while RealClearPolitics polling showed effectively a coin flip. The full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 audit linked from the politics hub.
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