Eagles vs Jaguars player props — Kalshi prices vs the books
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 5. Game preview and model line →
Quick Answer
As of October 8, 2026, Kalshi lists 85 player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Eagles vs Jaguars, Week 5.
Kalshi as of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET · books as of Oct 8, 3:15 PM ET · 279 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 85 with a real two-sided book · 2 priced against 3+ books
This week on the boardNFL Week 5 predictions →Week 6 predictions →Week 4 results →
Week 5 gamesBuccaneers at CowboysEagles at JaguarsBengals at DolphinsRaiders at PatriotsVikings at SaintsBrowns at JetsColts at SteelersTexans at TitansGiants at CommandersBroncos at ChargersLions at CardinalsBears at Packers49ers at SeahawksRavens at FalconsBills at Rams
Oracle calls for this game
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB | 25+ rush ydsover 24.5 | PHI vs JAX | NO | 🔒 | HIGH | Buy NO → | |||
| Jalen HurtsQB | 1+ pass TDsover 0.5 | PHI vs JAX | YES | 🔒 | HIGH | Buy YES → | |||
| Bhayshul TutenRBWatch | 60+ rush ydsover 59.5 | JAX vs PHI | NO | 🔒 | MODERATE | Buy NO → | |||
3 of 3 props · 3 locked (Pro)
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Prop market board — Eagles vs Jaguars
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
| Player | Prop | Game | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Novig | ProphetX | Best price | Our P(over) | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 2+ rec | PHI @ JAX | 48.5¢ | 50.0%5bk | -1.5¢ | o -108 / u -117 | o -122 / u -108 | over · BetRivers 51.5¢under · ProphetX 51.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 10+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 50.0¢ | 50.9%6bk | -0.9¢ | o -108 / u +100 | o -112 / u -104 | over · Novig 51.9¢under · Novig 50¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Ameer AbdullahJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 6.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +1150 | o +810 | over · Kalshi 7.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 48.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +108 / u -122 | o -124 | over · Novig 48.1¢under · Kalshi 53.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 2+ TDs | PHI @ JAX | 11.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 15+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 36.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +147 / u -194 | o +156 | over · ProphetX 39.1¢under · Novig 66¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 25+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 17.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +317 / u -456 | o +355 | over · Kalshi 21.1¢under · Novig 82¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 15+ rush att | PHI @ JAX | 53.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 80+ rush+rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 51.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 30+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 88.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -900 / u +203 | o -1550 | over · Kalshi 89.7¢under · Kalshi 13.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 40+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 79.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -400 / u +285 | o -500 | over · Novig 80¢under · Kalshi 23.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 50+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 68.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -223 / u +170 | o -265 | over · Novig 69¢under · Kalshi 33.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenRBJAX v PHI | 60+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 58.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -127 / u +108 | o -170 / u +112 | over · Novig 55.9¢under · Kalshi 43.7¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenRBJAX v PHI | 70+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 45.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +120 / u -156 | o +100 | over · Novig 45.5¢under · Kalshi 56.7¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenRBJAX v PHI | 80+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 36.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +186 / u -245 | o +194 | over · ProphetX 34¢under · Kalshi 66.6¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenRBJAX v PHI | 90+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 27.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +285 / u -4900 | o +285 | over · Novig 26¢under · Kalshi 75.4¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenRBJAX v PHI | 100+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 20.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +376 | o +400 | over · ProphetX 20¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Bhayshul TutenJAX v PHI | 110+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 13.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +567 | o +620 | over · ProphetX 13.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brenton StrangeJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 22.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +308 / u -9900 | o +285 | over · BetRivers 23.5¢under · Kalshi 79.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brenton StrangeJAX v PHI | 15+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 80.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -426 / u +300 | o -660 | over · Novig 81¢under · Kalshi 23.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brenton StrangeJAX v PHI | 25+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 65.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -203 / u +156 | o -240 | over · Novig 67¢under · Kalshi 38.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brenton StrangeJAX v PHI | 40+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 40.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +120 / u -138 | o +127 | over · Kalshi 42.7¢under · Novig 58¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brenton StrangeJAX v PHI | 70+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 12.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +506 | o +620 | over · ProphetX 13.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brian Thomas Jr.JAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 20.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +344 / u -809 | o +335 | over · FD 21.7¢under · Kalshi 82.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brian Thomas Jr.JAX v PHI | 15+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 66.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -233 / u +163 | o -270 | over · Kalshi 69.5¢under · Kalshi 36.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brian Thomas Jr.JAX v PHI | 50+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 20.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +326 / u -456 | o +320 | over · Kalshi 22.2¢under · Novig 82¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 22.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +308 / u -9900 | o +240 | over · Kalshi 24.2¢under · Kalshi 79.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX v PHI | 4+ rush att | PHI @ JAX | 87.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX v PHI | 20+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 65.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -203 / u +150 | o -230 | over · Novig 67¢under · Kalshi 38.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX v PHI | 25+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 54.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -133 / u +104 | o -138 | over · Novig 57.1¢under · Kalshi 48.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dameon PiercePHI v JAX | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 14.0¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · BetRivers 13.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Darius CooperPHI v JAX | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 17.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +426 / u -488 | o +375 | over · Kalshi 19¢under · Novig 83¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dontayvion WicksPHI v JAX | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 21.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +308 / u -9900 | o +230 | over · Kalshi 23.2¢under · Kalshi 80.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dontayvion WicksPHI v JAX | 2+ TDs | PHI @ JAX | 2.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| JAC Jaguars D/STJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 13.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 15.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 23.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +292 / u -4900 | o +255 | over · Kalshi 25.3¢under · Kalshi 79.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX v PHI | 15+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 85.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -2400 / u +156 | o -1150 | over · Kalshi 87.8¢under · Kalshi 18¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX v PHI | 40+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 52.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -130 / u +104 | o -138 | over · Kalshi 55.7¢under · Novig 49¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jakobi MeyersJAX v PHI | 70+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 20.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +300 | o +300 | over · Kalshi 23.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 32.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +203 / u -567 | o +146 | over · Novig 33¢under · Kalshi 69.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 2+ TDs | PHI @ JAX | 5.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 1+ INTs | PHI @ JAX | 52.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsQBPHI v JAX | 1+ pass TDs | PHI @ JAX | 64.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 2+ pass TDs | PHI @ JAX | 24.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 150+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 73.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -376 / u +186 | — | over · Kalshi 78.2¢under · Kalshi 32.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 200+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 45.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -104 / u -203 | — | over · Kalshi 47.7¢under · Kalshi 57.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 225+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 27.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +178 / u -355 | — | over · Kalshi 34.6¢under · Novig 78¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 325+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 5.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +1150 | — | over · Kalshi 6.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 10+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 84.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -733 / u +400 | — | over · Kalshi 86.8¢under · Kalshi 19¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsQBPHI v JAX | 25+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 54.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -144 / u +104 | — | over · Kalshi 57.7¢under · Novig 49¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsQBPHI v JAX | 30+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 44.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +106 / u -144 | o -108 | over · Kalshi 47.7¢under · Novig 59¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Jalen HurtsPHI v JAX | 50+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 17.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +388 / u -567 | o +350 | over · Kalshi 20.1¢under · Novig 85¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Johnny MundtPHI v JAX | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 7.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +1011 | o +650 | over · DK 8.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh CameronJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 10.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +669 / u -3233 | o +470 | over · Kalshi 11.7¢under · Kalshi 90.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Makai LemonPHI v JAX | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 16.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +413 / u -1150 | o +315 | over · Kalshi 18¢under · Kalshi 84.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Makai LemonPHI v JAX | 4+ rec | PHI @ JAX | 50.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 36.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +170 / u -525 | o +130 | over · Novig 37¢under · Kalshi 65.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | 2+ TDs | PHI @ JAX | 6.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | 50+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 62.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -182 / u +133 | o -210 | over · Novig 64.5¢under · Kalshi 40.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | 60+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 52.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -122 / u +102 | o -126 / u -420 | over · Kalshi 54.7¢under · Novig 49.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | 70+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 41.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +127 / u -156 | o +127 | over · Novig 44.1¢under · Novig 60.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | 80+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 32.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +186 / u -233 | o +186 | over · Novig 35¢under · Novig 70¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | 90+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 24.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +270 / u -1329 | o +270 | over · Novig 27¢under · Kalshi 79.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Parker WashingtonJAX v PHI | 100+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 17.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +365 / u -4900 | o +380 | over · Kalshi 20.1¢under · Kalshi 84.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 22.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +317 / u -9900 | o +230 | over · Novig 24¢under · Kalshi 79.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 2+ TDs | PHI @ JAX | 3.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 20+ completions | PHI @ JAX | 49.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 1+ pass TDs | PHI @ JAX | 83.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 2+ pass TDs | PHI @ JAX | 49.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 3+ pass TDs | PHI @ JAX | 20.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 150+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 88.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -1233 / u +525 | — | over · Kalshi 89.7¢under · Kalshi 13.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 200+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 66.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -239 / u +156 | — | over · Kalshi 69.5¢under · Kalshi 37.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 225+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 51.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -133 / u -117 | — | over · Kalshi 53.8¢under · Kalshi 51.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 300+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 14.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +441 / u -1329 | — | over · Kalshi 16.9¢under · Kalshi 88.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 325+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 8.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +614 / u -4900 | — | over · Kalshi 10.6¢under · Kalshi 93.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 350+ pass yds | PHI @ JAX | 6.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +1150 | — | over · Kalshi 7.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 4+ rush att | PHI @ JAX | 51.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 10+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 65.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -178 / u +138 | o -210 | over · Novig 64¢under · Kalshi 38.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Trevor LawrenceJAX v PHI | 15+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 49.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +100 / u -127 | o +101 | over · ProphetX 49.8¢under · Kalshi 54.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Will ShipleyPHI v JAX | anytime TD | PHI @ JAX | 29.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +203 / u -525 | o +160 | over · Kalshi 31.5¢under · Kalshi 72.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Will ShipleyPHI v JAX | 2+ TDs | PHI @ JAX | 4.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Will ShipleyPHI v JAX | 15+ rec yds | PHI @ JAX | 47.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Will ShipleyPHI v JAX | 25+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 68.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Will ShipleyPHI v JAX | 40+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 44.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Will ShipleyPHI v JAX | 60+ rush yds | PHI @ JAX | 23.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
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The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike
Strikes above, distribution here: our full margin curve beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.
Eagles vs Jaguars props — FAQ
What are the player props for Eagles vs Jaguars?
85 Kalshi player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Week 5 — passing, rushing, receiving and scoring lines — each shown on this page beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, with the cheapest venue for each side named.
Where are Eagles vs Jaguars player props priced best?
The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.
What is the gap column?
The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?
Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 85 strikes with a real two-sided book; 194 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.
Can you trade NFL player props on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL player-prop contracts — for example, will a quarterback record 275 or more passing yards. Each contract settles at $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if no, so its price in cents is the market's implied probability, and traders buy and sell it from each other until it settles.
How is a Kalshi prop different from a prop at the books?
A Kalshi prop is an exchange contract: traders take either side from each other, the price moves with the order book, and a position can be sold before kickoff. At the books the house sets the line. This page reads the books' implied probability at the same line as each Kalshi strike so the two can be compared directly.
What is an Oracle Ladder?
An Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market as a curve — for player props, beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line. Our model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any strike where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refused rather than shown.
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- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or moneyline into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale