Bills vs Jets player props — Kalshi prices vs the books
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 10. Game preview and model line →
Quick Answer
As of November 12, 2026, Kalshi lists 42 player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Bills vs Jets, Week 10.
Kalshi as of Nov 12, 7:20 AM ET · books as of Nov 12, 6:15 AM ET · 226 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 42 with a real two-sided book · 1 priced against 3+ books
This week on the boardNFL Week 10 predictions →Week 11 predictions →Week 9 results →
Week 10 gamesCommanders at GiantsPatriots at LionsChiefs at FalconsTexans at BrownsVikings at PackersDolphins at ColtsPanthers at SaintsBills at JetsJaguars at TitansRams at CardinalsSeahawks at Raiders49ers at CowboysSteelers at BengalsChargers at Ravens
Oracle calls for this game
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQBWatch | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | BUF vs NYJ | NO | 1.4 | — | 44¢ | MODERATE | Buy NO → |
| Josh AllenQBWatch | 30+ rush ydsover 29.5 | BUF vs NYJ | NO | 🔒 | MODERATE | Buy NO → | ||
2 of 2 props · 1 locked (Pro)
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Prop market board — Bills vs Jets
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
| Player | Prop | Game | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Novig | ProphetX | Best price | Our P(over) | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallNYJ v BUF | 15+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 56.0¢ | 50.7%2bk | +5.3¢ | o -122 / u +100 | — | over · Novig 55¢under · Kalshi 48.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 30+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 49.5¢ | 48.3%3bk | +1.2¢ | o -104 / u -120 | o -104 / u -115 | over · Novig 51¢under · Kalshi 52.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 58.0¢ | 59.0%exch | -1.0¢ | o -156 / u +138 | o -170 / u +127 | over · Kalshi 60.7¢under · Novig 42¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Braelon AllenNYJ v BUF | 30+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 57.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -156 / u -144 | o -162 | over · Kalshi 60.7¢under · Kalshi 46.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Breece HallNYJ v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 41.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +122 / u -138 | — | over · Kalshi 43.7¢under · Novig 58¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Breece HallNYJ v BUF | 2+ TDs | BUF @ NYJ | 10.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Breece HallNYJ v BUF | 20+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 44.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Breece HallNYJ v BUF | 25+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 33.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o -200 | over · Kalshi 37.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Breece HallNYJ v BUF | 60+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 39.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +118 | over · Kalshi 43.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Breece HallNYJ v BUF | 80+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 20.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +292 | o +285 | over · Kalshi 25.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidBUF v NYJ | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 29.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +264 / u -308 | o -184 | over · Novig 27.5¢under · Kalshi 73.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidBUF v NYJ | 50+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 35.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +122 | over · Kalshi 39.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| DJ MooreBUF v NYJ | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 31.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +203 / u -223 | o -192 | over · Novig 33¢under · Novig 69¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| DJ MooreBUF v NYJ | 50+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 42.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o +104 | over · Kalshi 46.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| DJ MooreBUF v NYJ | 70+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 24.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +245 | o +235 | over · Kalshi 28.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Geno SmithNYJ v BUF | 200+ pass yds | BUF @ NYJ | 61.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -194 / u +144 | — | over · Kalshi 65.6¢under · Novig 41¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Geno SmithNYJ v BUF | 5+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 50.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| James CookBUF v NYJ | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 57.5¢ | — | one-sided | o -163 / u +144 | — | over · Kalshi 60.7¢under · Novig 41¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| James CookBUF v NYJ | 2+ TDs | BUF @ NYJ | 20.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| James CookBUF v NYJ | 10+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 42.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o -285 | over · Kalshi 45.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| James CookBUF v NYJ | 20+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 20.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +285 | o -168 | over · Kalshi 23.2¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 2+ TDs | BUF @ NYJ | 18.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 2+ pass TDs | BUF @ NYJ | 55.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 3+ pass TDs | BUF @ NYJ | 26.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 150+ pass yds | BUF @ NYJ | 90.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -1329 | — | over · Kalshi 92.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 175+ pass yds | BUF @ NYJ | 81.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 200+ pass yds | BUF @ NYJ | 70.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o -280 | over · Kalshi 73.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 225+ pass yds | BUF @ NYJ | 56.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -150 / u +117 | o -170 | over · Kalshi 59.7¢under · Novig 46.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 250+ pass yds | BUF @ NYJ | 39.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +125 / u -150 | o +123 | over · Kalshi 41.7¢under · Novig 60¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 300+ pass yds | BUF @ NYJ | 13.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +413 | o +405 | over · Kalshi 16.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 10+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 84.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 15+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 74.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 20+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 64.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o -240 | over · Kalshi 68.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 25+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 55.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | — | o -156 | over · Kalshi 58.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 50+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 17.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +400 | o +395 | over · Novig 20¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v NYJ | 60+ rush yds | BUF @ NYJ | 11.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +669 | o +570 | over · Novig 13¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Keleki LatuBUF v NYJ | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 5.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +1329 / u -3233 | o +900 | over · DK 6.3¢under · Kalshi 96.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kenyon SadiqNYJ v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 14.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +488 | o -146 | over · BetRivers 16.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Keon ColemanBUF v NYJ | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 26.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +277 | o +225 / u -315 | over · Novig 26.5¢under · Kalshi 75.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Khalil ShakirBUF v NYJ | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 24.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +277 / u -326 | o -188 | over · Kalshi 26.3¢under · Novig 76.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Khalil ShakirBUF v NYJ | 40+ rec yds | BUF @ NYJ | 55.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -163 / u +125 | — | over · Kalshi 57.7¢under · Novig 44.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Mason TaylorNYJ v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ NYJ | 15.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +506 | o +430 / u -690 | over · Fanatics 15.4¢under · Kalshi 85.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
42 of 42 two-sided strikes · + 184 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced · book consensus as of Nov 12, 6:15 AM ET
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Same props on both venues: Kalshi vs Polymarket US
Bills at Jets · same player, stat and threshold · cost to buy after fees · as of 8:20 AM ET
| Player prop (141) | Kalshi8:20 AM ET | Polymarket USPolymarketPartner8:38 AM ET | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall anytime TD | no current price | 44¢46.3¢ after fees | — |
| Khalil Shakir 40+ rec yds | no current price | 59¢61.3¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen anytime TD | no current price | 60¢62.3¢ after fees | — |
| Breece Hall 2+ TDs | no current price | 10¢10.9¢ after fees | — |
| DJ Moore first TD | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Kalshi1.3¢ less |
| James Cook III anytime TD | no current price | 60¢62.3¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 200+ pass yds | no current price | 71¢73¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 2+ TDs | no current price | 21¢22.6¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 30+ rush yds | no current price | 49¢51.4¢ after fees | — |
| Keon Coleman anytime TD | no current price | 27¢28.9¢ after fees | — |
| Khalil Shakir anytime TD | no current price | 30¢32¢ after fees | — |
| Mason Taylor anytime TD | no current price | 15¢16.2¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 250+ pass yds | no current price | 44¢46.3¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 2+ pass TDs | no current price | 61¢63.3¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 225+ pass yds | no current price | 59¢61.3¢ after fees | — |
| DJ Moore 3+ TDs | no current price | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq anytime TD | no current price | 16¢17.3¢ after fees | — |
| DJ Moore anytime TD | no current price | 32¢34.1¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 2+ TDs | no current price | 19¢20.5¢ after fees | — |
| Dalton Kincaid anytime TD | no current price | 30¢32¢ after fees | — |
| Isaiah Williams 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Keleki Latu anytime TD | no current price | 6¢6.5¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 200+ pass yds | no current price | 65¢67.2¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 60+ rush yds | no current price | 14¢15.1¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 300+ pass yds | no current price | 16¢17.3¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 50+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Josh Allen 3+ pass TDs | no current price | 30¢32¢ after fees | — |
| Greg Dortch first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Josh Allen first TD | 17¢18¢ after fees | 17¢18.3¢ after fees | Even |
| Josh Allen 20+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Josh Allen 150+ pass yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Breece Hall 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Breece Hall 80+ rush yds | no current price | 25¢26.8¢ after fees | — |
| Breece Hall 60+ rush yds | no current price | 45¢47.4¢ after fees | — |
| DJ Moore 70+ rec yds | no current price | 28¢29.9¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 25+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Braelon Allen 30+ rush yds | no current price | 60¢62.3¢ after fees | — |
| Dalton Kincaid 50+ rec yds | no current price | 43¢45.3¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 175+ pass yds | no current price | 85¢86.2¢ after fees | — |
| DJ Moore 50+ rec yds | no current price | 47¢49.4¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III first TD | 19¢20.1¢ after fees | 20¢21.5¢ after fees | Kalshi1.4¢ less |
| Breece Hall first TD | 10¢10.6¢ after fees | 10¢10.9¢ after fees | Even |
| Dalton Kincaid first TD | 9¢9.6¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Khalil Shakir first TD | 9¢9.6¢ after fees | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | Even |
| Braelon Allen first TD | 8¢8.5¢ after fees | 8¢8.7¢ after fees | Even |
| Keon Coleman first TD | 7¢7.5¢ after fees | 7¢7.6¢ after fees | Even |
| Dawson Knox first TD | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | no two-sided book | — |
| Jackson Hawes first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Keleki Latu first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Ray Davis first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Ty Johnson first TD | 4¢4.3¢ after fees | no two-sided book | — |
| Adonai Mitchell first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Geno Smith first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Isaiah Williams first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Mason Taylor first TD | no two-sided book | no two-sided book | — |
| Josh Allen 1+ pass TDs | no current price | 88¢89¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 4+ pass TDs | no current price | 12¢13¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 1+ pass TDs | no current price | 74¢75.8¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 2+ pass TDs | no current price | 37¢39.2¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 3+ pass TDs | no current price | 14¢15.1¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 4+ pass TDs | no current price | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 275+ pass yds | no current price | 31¢33¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 325+ pass yds | no current price | 13¢14.1¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 150+ pass yds | no current price | 88¢89¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 175+ pass yds | no current price | 77¢78.7¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 225+ pass yds | no current price | 51¢53.4¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 250+ pass yds | no current price | 36¢38.2¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 275+ pass yds | no current price | 24¢25.7¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 300+ pass yds | no current price | 15¢16.2¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith 325+ pass yds | no current price | 10¢10.9¢ after fees | — |
| Dalton Kincaid 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Dalton Kincaid 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Dalton Kincaid 40+ rec yds | no current price | 55¢57.4¢ after fees | — |
| Dalton Kincaid 60+ rec yds | no current price | 32¢34.1¢ after fees | — |
| Dawson Knox 10+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Dawson Knox 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| DJ Moore 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| DJ Moore 40+ rec yds | no current price | 59¢61.3¢ after fees | — |
| DJ Moore 60+ rec yds | no current price | 36¢38.2¢ after fees | — |
| Keon Coleman 10+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Keon Coleman 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Keon Coleman 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Keon Coleman 40+ rec yds | no current price | 38¢40.2¢ after fees | — |
| Keon Coleman 50+ rec yds | no current price | 27¢28.9¢ after fees | — |
| Khalil Shakir 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Khalil Shakir 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Khalil Shakir 50+ rec yds | no current price | 44¢46.3¢ after fees | — |
| Khalil Shakir 60+ rec yds | no current price | 34¢36.1¢ after fees | — |
| Adonai Mitchell 20+ rec yds | no current price | 75¢76.8¢ after fees | — |
| Adonai Mitchell 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Adonai Mitchell 40+ rec yds | no current price | 48¢50.4¢ after fees | — |
| Adonai Mitchell 50+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Adonai Mitchell 60+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Breece Hall 10+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Breece Hall 30+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq 10+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq 20+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq 30+ rec yds | no current price | 39¢41.3¢ after fees | — |
| Mason Taylor 10+ rec yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Mason Taylor 20+ rec yds | no current price | 43¢45.3¢ after fees | — |
| Mason Taylor 30+ rec yds | no current price | 27¢28.9¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 40+ rush yds | no current price | 31¢33¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 100+ rush yds | no current price | 45¢47.4¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 110+ rush yds | no current price | 36¢38.2¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 120+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| James Cook III 60+ rush yds | no current price | 83¢84.3¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 70+ rush yds | no current price | 75¢76.8¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 80+ rush yds | no current price | 65¢67.2¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 90+ rush yds | no current price | 55¢57.4¢ after fees | — |
| Braelon Allen 20+ rush yds | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Braelon Allen 40+ rush yds | no current price | 44¢46.3¢ after fees | — |
| Braelon Allen 50+ rush yds | no current price | 31¢33¢ after fees | — |
| Braelon Allen 60+ rush yds | no current price | 21¢22.6¢ after fees | — |
| Breece Hall 40+ rush yds | no current price | 73¢74.9¢ after fees | — |
| Breece Hall 50+ rush yds | no current price | 59¢61.3¢ after fees | — |
| Breece Hall 70+ rush yds | no current price | 34¢36.1¢ after fees | — |
| Dalton Kincaid 2+ TDs | no current price | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | — |
| Dawson Knox anytime TD | no current price | 15¢16.2¢ after fees | — |
| Dawson Knox 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| DJ Moore 2+ TDs | no current price | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | — |
| Josh Allen 3+ TDs | no current price | 5¢5.5¢ after fees | — |
| James Cook III 3+ TDs | no current price | 6¢6.5¢ after fees | — |
| Jackson Hawes anytime TD | no current price | 9¢9.8¢ after fees | — |
| Keon Coleman 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Khalil Shakir 2+ TDs | no current price | 4¢4.4¢ after fees | — |
| Ray Davis anytime TD | no current price | 7¢7.6¢ after fees | — |
| Ty Johnson anytime TD | no current price | 15¢16.2¢ after fees | — |
| Ty Johnson 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Adonai Mitchell anytime TD | no current price | 18¢19.4¢ after fees | — |
| Adonai Mitchell 2+ TDs | no current price | 3¢3.3¢ after fees | — |
| Braelon Allen anytime TD | no current price | 34¢36.1¢ after fees | — |
| Braelon Allen 2+ TDs | no current price | 6¢6.5¢ after fees | — |
| Braelon Allen 3+ TDs | no current price | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
| Breece Hall 3+ TDs | no current price | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
| Geno Smith anytime TD | no current price | 10¢10.9¢ after fees | — |
| Isaiah Williams anytime TD | no current price | 10¢10.9¢ after fees | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq 2+ TDs | no current price | no two-sided book | — |
| Malik McClain anytime TD | no current price | 7¢7.6¢ after fees | — |
| Mason Taylor 2+ TDs | no current price | 2¢2.2¢ after fees | — |
This game on Kalshi →This game on Polymarket US →
Sponsored by Polymarket US
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See https://polymarketexchange.com/files/legal/Polymarket%20US%20Rulebook%20(2026.09.30).pdf for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Polymarket US only (29)
- Adonai Mitchell 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 58¢
- Adonai Mitchell 11+ fantasy points (PPR)Polymarket US 50¢
- Braelon Allen 10+ fantasy points (PPR)Polymarket US 50¢
- Breece Hall 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 51¢
- Breece Hall 11+ fantasy points (PPR)Polymarket US 50¢
- Dalton Kincaid 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 67¢
- Dalton Kincaid 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 49¢
- Dalton Kincaid 5+ receptionsPolymarket US 32¢
- Dalton Kincaid 9+ fantasy points (PPR)Polymarket US 50¢
- Dawson Knox 2+ receptionsPolymarket US 55¢
- DJ Moore 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 68¢
- DJ Moore 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 49¢
- DJ Moore 5+ receptionsPolymarket US 34¢
- Geno Smith 1+ interceptions thrownPolymarket US 53¢
- Greg Dortch anytime TDPolymarket US 6¢
- James Cook III 20+ rushing attemptsPolymarket US 53¢
- Jeremy Ruckert anytime TDPolymarket US 6¢
- Josh Allen 1+ interceptions thrownPolymarket US 40¢
- Josh Allen 2+ interceptions thrownPolymarket US 14¢
- Kenyon Sadiq 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 45¢
- Keon Coleman 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 47¢
- Keon Coleman 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 28¢
- Keon Coleman 8+ fantasy points (PPR)Polymarket US 50¢
- Khalil Shakir 3+ receptionsPolymarket US 74¢
- Khalil Shakir 4+ receptionsPolymarket US 56¢
- Khalil Shakir 5+ receptionsPolymarket US 39¢
- Mason Taylor 2+ receptionsPolymarket US 66¢
- Omar Cooper Jr. 2+ TDsPolymarket US 3¢
- Omar Cooper Jr. anytime TDPolymarket US 15¢
Kalshi only (100)
- Josh Allen 15+ rush ydsKalshi 76¢
- James Cook III 10+ rec ydsKalshi 44¢
- Geno Smith 5+ rush ydsKalshi 51¢
- Breece Hall 25+ rec ydsKalshi 36¢
- Breece Hall 15+ rec ydsKalshi 59¢
- Josh Allen 10+ rush ydsKalshi 86¢
- James Cook III 20+ rec ydsKalshi 22¢
- Braelon Allen 100+ rush ydsKalshi 5¢
- Josh Allen 5+ pass TDsKalshi 5¢
- Josh Allen 350+ pass ydsKalshi 7¢
- Geno Smith 350+ pass ydsKalshi 6¢
- Dalton Kincaid 100+ rec ydsKalshi 9¢
- Dalton Kincaid 110+ rec ydsKalshi 6¢
- Dalton Kincaid 15+ rec ydsKalshi 87¢
- Dalton Kincaid 25+ rec ydsKalshi 74¢
- Dalton Kincaid 70+ rec ydsKalshi 21¢
- Dalton Kincaid 80+ rec ydsKalshi 15¢
- Dalton Kincaid 90+ rec ydsKalshi 11¢
- Dawson Knox 15+ rec ydsKalshi 48¢
- Dawson Knox 25+ rec ydsKalshi 31¢
- Dawson Knox 30+ rec ydsKalshi 24¢
- Dawson Knox 40+ rec ydsKalshi 15¢
- Dawson Knox 50+ rec ydsKalshi 10¢
- Dawson Knox 60+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- DJ Moore 100+ rec ydsKalshi 11¢
- DJ Moore 110+ rec ydsKalshi 8¢
- DJ Moore 120+ rec ydsKalshi 6¢
- DJ Moore 20+ rec ydsKalshi 83¢
- DJ Moore 25+ rec ydsKalshi 77¢
- DJ Moore 80+ rec ydsKalshi 20¢
- DJ Moore 90+ rec ydsKalshi 15¢
- James Cook III 15+ rec ydsKalshi 33¢
- James Cook III 25+ rec ydsKalshi 17¢
- James Cook III 30+ rec ydsKalshi 12¢
- James Cook III 40+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- James Cook III 50+ rec ydsKalshi 6¢
- Keon Coleman 15+ rec ydsKalshi 73¢
- Keon Coleman 25+ rec ydsKalshi 57¢
- Keon Coleman 60+ rec ydsKalshi 18¢
- Keon Coleman 70+ rec ydsKalshi 13¢
- Keon Coleman 80+ rec ydsKalshi 10¢
- Keon Coleman 90+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- Khalil Shakir 100+ rec ydsKalshi 9¢
- Khalil Shakir 110+ rec ydsKalshi 6¢
- Khalil Shakir 15+ rec ydsKalshi 87¢
- Khalil Shakir 25+ rec ydsKalshi 76¢
- Khalil Shakir 70+ rec ydsKalshi 22¢
- Khalil Shakir 80+ rec ydsKalshi 16¢
- Khalil Shakir 90+ rec ydsKalshi 11¢
- Adonai Mitchell 10+ rec ydsKalshi 89¢
- Adonai Mitchell 100+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- Adonai Mitchell 15+ rec ydsKalshi 82¢
- Adonai Mitchell 25+ rec ydsKalshi 69¢
- Adonai Mitchell 70+ rec ydsKalshi 19¢
- Adonai Mitchell 80+ rec ydsKalshi 13¢
- Adonai Mitchell 90+ rec ydsKalshi 10¢
- Breece Hall 40+ rec ydsKalshi 17¢
- Breece Hall 50+ rec ydsKalshi 11¢
- Breece Hall 60+ rec ydsKalshi 7¢
- Kenyon Sadiq 15+ rec ydsKalshi 64¢
+ 40 more listed on Kalshi only.
Not every market is listed on both venues. A row pairs only the same player, stat and threshold, and the club must agree. The single-venue lists show the ask on the one venue that lists the contract, two-sided books only. Cost after fees is the ask plus each venue’s per-contract taker fee — Kalshi: Taker fee 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract, max 1.75¢. Polymarket US: Taker fee 9.50% × price × (1 − price) per contract under $10,000 of 30-day taker volume (max $2.38 per 100), down to 6.95% at $250,000+. A price older than 30 minutes shows as no current price.
The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike
Strikes above, distribution here: our full margin curve beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.
Bills vs Jets props — FAQ
What are the player props for Bills vs Jets?
42 Kalshi player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Week 10 — passing, rushing, receiving and scoring lines — each shown on this page beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, with the cheapest venue for each side named.
Where are Bills vs Jets player props priced best?
The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.
What is the gap column?
The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?
Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 42 strikes with a real two-sided book; 184 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.
Can you trade NFL player props on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL player-prop contracts — for example, will a quarterback record 275 or more passing yards. Each contract settles at $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if no, so its price in cents is the market's implied probability, and traders buy and sell it from each other until it settles.
How is a Kalshi prop different from a prop at the books?
A Kalshi prop is an exchange contract: traders take either side from each other, the price moves with the order book, and a position can be sold before kickoff. At the books the house sets the line. This page reads the books' implied probability at the same line as each Kalshi strike so the two can be compared directly.
What is an Oracle Ladder?
An Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market as a curve — for player props, beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line. Our model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any strike where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refused rather than shown.
More NFL Markets
- NFL Week 10 predictions — Model vs. Kalshi on every game on the board right now.
- NFL Week 11 predictions — Next week’s slate, priced the moment the lines open.
- NFL Week 9 results — Final scores and every graded call from the week just played.
- Kalshi NFL spread & total ladders, scanned live → — Every NFL strike checked for prices out of order, with Novig and Polymarket US beside it
- Will Derrick Henry score a TD? Live Kalshi odds → — Henry anytime TD, 2+ TDs and rushing-yard prices for every Ravens game, plus his TD record vs the market
- Markets 101: be the market maker, not the market taker → — Why the first-TD board prices out to ~118%, and how a resting bid a cent under the ask beats paying it
- Heisman odds 2026 — Kalshi vs Polymarket US → — Every contender priced on both exchanges, cheaper venue named, plus Coach Gene’s longshots
- Grok fantasy football — connect the draft desk → — One URL, no key: the grok.com/connectors walkthrough and six prompts
- NFL MCP server — the in-season desk, inside your AI agent → — Kalshi props venue by venue, spread ladders, correlation-aware combos, weekly game edges — free tools, no key
- MCP setup — connect Claude, ChatGPT or Grok in a minute → — One URL, no API key: per-host install steps and troubleshooting
- NFL 2026 Market Guide — the 61-page book → — All 32 teams priced against the market, plus a 153-player draft board
- NFL 2026 Quarter-Season Report — 64 games, 32 teams, priced → — Weeks 1–4 in one book: opening vs closing lines, the Kalshi board Sept 8 vs Oct 8, all 32 team cards
- Madden 27 ratings vs our model vs the market → — All 32 team ratings, our power ratings, and live win-total prices on one board
- NFL Predictions — every game vs the market → — Free fair value vs Kalshi on all 18 weeks
- 2026 NFL Win Totals — model vs Kalshi → — All 32 teams: projected wins vs the KXNFLWINS ladder
- NFL Standings 2026 — projected records + playoff odds → — All 8 divisions: projected record, PWR, division-title and playoff odds
- NFL Schedule Predictor 2026 — every game picked → — Straight-up winner and win probability for all 272 games, plus the 10,000-season sim
- NFL Game Edges — where the model disagrees → — Game-winner, spread & total edges vs Kalshi prices
- NFL MVP Edges → — Live MVP market mispricings vs Kalshi KXNFLMVP
- Win Total Futures → — Monte Carlo season wins vs the Kalshi line
- Championship Edges → — Playoff / conference / Super Bowl probabilities
- Kalshi NFL Markets → — How Kalshi prices every NFL market + live edges
- Power Rankings — the model methodology anchor → — All 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- Fantasy Draft Assistant — the same model, in your AI agent → — Free MCP draft desk: board, best available, sleepers vs ADP, who-do-I-draft
- NFL Model Calibration Ledger — how accurate is it, actually → — The graded record: 59.6% straight up, 0.236 Brier, and hit rate by confidence bucket across 3,266 games
- NFL Power Ratings tool — build your own PWR board → — Adjust the model weights and re-rank all 32 teams on the points-per-game scale
- NFL Win Probability calculator → — Turn any rating gap, spread or game-winner price into a calibrated win probability
- NFL Power Ratings vs. the Market — where we disagree → — Our PWR and the rating implied by live Kalshi win-total prices, all 32 teams on one points scale