Bills vs Rams player props — Kalshi prices vs the books
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 5. Game preview and model line →
Quick Answer
As of October 8, 2026, Kalshi lists 47 player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Bills vs Rams, Week 5.
Kalshi as of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET · books as of Oct 8, 3:15 PM ET · 162 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 47 with a real two-sided book · 2 priced against 3+ books
This week on the boardNFL Week 5 predictions →Week 6 predictions →Week 4 results →
Week 5 gamesBuccaneers at CowboysEagles at JaguarsBengals at DolphinsRaiders at PatriotsVikings at SaintsBrowns at JetsColts at SteelersTexans at TitansGiants at CommandersBroncos at ChargersLions at CardinalsBears at Packers49ers at SeahawksRavens at FalconsBills at Rams
Oracle calls for this game
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton KincaidTEWatch | 50+ rec ydsover 49.5 | BUF vs LAR | NO | 🔒 | MODERATE | Buy NO → | |||
| James CookRBWatch | 70+ rush ydsover 69.5 | BUF vs LAR | NO | 🔒 | MODERATE | Buy NO → | |||
2 of 2 props · 2 locked (Pro)
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Prop market board — Bills vs Rams
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
| Player | Prop | Game | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Novig | ProphetX | Best price | Our P(over) | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | 70+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 48.0¢ | 50.0%6bk | -2.0¢ | o +104 / u -111 | o +100 / u -117 | over · Novig 49¢under · ESPN Bet 52.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Puka NacuaLAR v BUF | 95+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 48.0¢ | 48.9%2bk | -0.9¢ | — | — | over · ESPN Bet 51.2¢under · DK 53.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidTEBUF v LAR | 50+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 50.5¢ | 51.0%5bk | -0.5¢ | o -113 / u +102 | o -116 / u -103 | over · Novig 53.1¢under · Novig 49.5¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Blake CorumLAR v BUF | 20+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 71.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -308 | o -350 | over · Kalshi 75.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Blake CorumLAR v BUF | 30+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 53.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -138 / u +111 | o -138 | over · Kalshi 57.7¢under · Novig 47.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidBUF v LAR | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 28.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +217 | o +168 | over · Kalshi 31.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidBUF v LAR | 40+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 61.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -186 / u +144 | o -210 | over · Novig 65¢under · Novig 41¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidBUF v LAR | 60+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 40.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +127 / u -156 | o +138 | over · ProphetX 42¢under · Novig 60.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Davante AdamsLAR v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 46.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +100 | o -420 | over · Kalshi 48.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Davante AdamsLAR v BUF | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LAR | 10.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Davante AdamsLAR v BUF | 70+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 43.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +115 | o +112 | over · Novig 46.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Davis AllenLAR v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 9.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +669 | o +470 | over · Kalshi 10.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dawson KnoxBUF v LAR | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 13.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +567 | o +415 | over · BetRivers 13.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| James Cook IIIBUF v LAR | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 50.0¢ | — | one-sided | o -111 | o -420 | over · Novig 52.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| James Cook IIIBUF v LAR | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LAR | 13.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| James Cook IIIRBBUF v LAR | 70+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 55.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -150 | o -170 | over · Kalshi 59.7¢ | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| James Cook IIIBUF v LAR | 80+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 43.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +102 | o +101 | over · Kalshi 45.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LAR | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 51.0¢ | — | one-sided | o -115 / u -150 | o -420 | over · Novig 53.5¢under · Kalshi 51.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LAR | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LAR | 13.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LAR | 2+ pass TDs | BUF @ LAR | 50.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LAR | 250+ pass yds | BUF @ LAR | 49.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -104 / u -122 | — | over · Novig 51¢under · Kalshi 53.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LAR | 325+ pass yds | BUF @ LAR | 13.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +413 | — | over · Kalshi 15.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LAR | 40+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 44.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +104 | o +104 | over · Kalshi 48.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Joshua PalmerBUF v LAR | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 14.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +456 / u -525 | o +310 | over · BetRivers 16¢under · Novig 84¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Keon ColemanBUF v LAR | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 26.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +264 | o +220 | over · BetRivers 26.3¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 58.5¢ | — | one-sided | o -170 | o -420 | over · Kalshi 61.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LAR | 19.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | 15+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 63.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -203 / u +170 | o -210 | over · Kalshi 66.6¢under · Novig 37¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | 25+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 41.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +127 / u -147 | o +127 | over · Novig 44.1¢under · Novig 59.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | 40+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 18.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +344 / u -456 | o +355 | over · Kalshi 20.1¢under · Novig 82¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | 40+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 82.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -614 | o -800 | over · Kalshi 84.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kyren WilliamsLAR v BUF | 50+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 72.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -317 | o -350 | over · Novig 76¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| LA Rams D/STLAR v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 12.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · DK 15.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 5.5¢ | — | one-sided | o +1438 / u -1900 | o +810 | over · BetRivers 5¢under · Novig 95¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | 2+ pass TDs | BUF @ LAR | 69.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | 3+ pass TDs | BUF @ LAR | 39.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | 4+ pass TDs | BUF @ LAR | 15.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | 275+ pass yds | BUF @ LAR | 52.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -141 | — | over · Kalshi 54.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | 300+ pass yds | BUF @ LAR | 38.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +130 | — | over · Kalshi 42.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | 400+ pass yds | BUF @ LAR | 6.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +900 | — | over · Kalshi 8.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Matthew StaffordLAR v BUF | 10+ rush yds | BUF @ LAR | 20.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Puka NacuaLAR v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 51.0¢ | — | one-sided | o -122 | o -420 | over · Kalshi 53.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Puka NacuaLAR v BUF | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LAR | 14.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Puka NacuaLAR v BUF | 90+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 53.5¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o -122 | o -123 | over · Novig 55¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Puka NacuaLAR v BUF | 100+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 45.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +108 | o +108 | over · Kalshi 47.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Puka NacuaLAR v BUF | 110+ rec yds | BUF @ LAR | 33.0¢ | off-ladder | off-ladder | o +150 | o +150 | over · Kalshi 39.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Tutu AtwellLAR v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LAR | 5.0¢ | — | one-sided | o +1150 | o +720 | over · BetRivers 5.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
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The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike
Strikes above, distribution here: our full margin curve beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.
Bills vs Rams props — FAQ
What are the player props for Bills vs Rams?
47 Kalshi player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Week 5 — passing, rushing, receiving and scoring lines — each shown on this page beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, with the cheapest venue for each side named.
Where are Bills vs Rams player props priced best?
The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.
What is the gap column?
The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?
Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 47 strikes with a real two-sided book; 115 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.
Can you trade NFL player props on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL player-prop contracts — for example, will a quarterback record 275 or more passing yards. Each contract settles at $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if no, so its price in cents is the market's implied probability, and traders buy and sell it from each other until it settles.
How is a Kalshi prop different from a prop at the books?
A Kalshi prop is an exchange contract: traders take either side from each other, the price moves with the order book, and a position can be sold before kickoff. At the books the house sets the line. This page reads the books' implied probability at the same line as each Kalshi strike so the two can be compared directly.
What is an Oracle Ladder?
An Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market as a curve — for player props, beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line. Our model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any strike where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refused rather than shown.
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