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NFL 2026

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Colts vs Steelers player props — Kalshi prices vs the books

Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 5. Game preview and model line →

Quick Answer

As of October 8, 2026, Kalshi lists 52 player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Colts vs Steelers, Week 5.

Kalshi as of Oct 8, 3:10 PM ET · books as of Oct 8, 3:15 PM ET · 230 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 52 with a real two-sided book · 3 priced against 3+ books

This week on the boardNFL Week 5 predictions →Week 6 predictions →Week 4 results →

Week 5 gamesBuccaneers at CowboysEagles at JaguarsBengals at DolphinsRaiders at PatriotsVikings at SaintsBrowns at JetsColts at SteelersTexans at TitansGiants at CommandersBroncos at ChargersLions at CardinalsBears at Packers49ers at SeahawksRavens at FalconsBills at Rams

Oracle calls for this game

Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.

NFL player prop edges — our projection against each Kalshi contract (X or more), on the strike closest to our projection. The call is YES or NO on that contract, the market price is the price of the called side, and the edge is stated on the called side. Rows badged WATCH are not plays; rows badged SKEW are calls where the average projection sits on the other side of the threshold.
PlayerContractMatchupCallOur projOur oddsMktEdgeTierTrade
Daniel JonesQB2+ pass TDsover 1.5IND vs PITNO🔒HIGHBuy NO →
Jonathan TaylorRBWatch70+ rush ydsover 69.5IND vs PITNO🔒MODERATEBuy NO →

2 of 2 props · 2 locked (Pro)

Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.

Prop market board — Colts vs Steelers

Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.

🔒 Filter by our call — Pro
Every Kalshi NFL player-prop strike with a two-sided book this week: the Kalshi mid, the sportsbook consensus probability read at that strike, exchange quotes at the same strike, and the gap between Kalshi and consensus in cents. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
PlayerPropGameKalshiConsensusGapNovigProphetXBest priceOur P(over)Trade
DK MetcalfPIT v IND4+ recIND @ PIT61.0¢57.8%4bk+3.2¢o -163 / u +113o -176 / u +122over · DK 61.2¢under · Kalshi 42.7¢—Kalshi →
DK MetcalfPIT v IND50+ rec ydsIND @ PIT53.0¢50.4%3bk+2.6¢o -111 / u +100o -112 / u -108over · Novig 52.6¢under · Novig 50¢—Kalshi →
Tyler WarrenIND v PIT50+ rec ydsIND @ PIT49.0¢51.6%2bk-2.6¢o -125 / u +100o -128over · Kalshi 51.8¢under · Novig 50¢—Kalshi →
Jonathan TaylorIND v PIT3+ recIND @ PIT50.5¢48.8%4bk+1.7¢o -108 / u -122o -108 / u -122over · Novig 51.9¢under · Kalshi 51.8¢—Kalshi →
Aaron RodgersPIT v IND225+ pass ydsIND @ PIT48.5¢50.1%2bk-1.6¢o -113 / u -111—over · Kalshi 51.8¢under · Novig 52.6¢—Kalshi →
Aaron RodgersPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT6.5¢—one-sidedo +953o +510over · BetRivers 6.3¢—Kalshi →
Aaron RodgersPIT v IND1+ pass TDsIND @ PIT82.5¢—no books——Kalshi only—Kalshi →
Aaron RodgersPIT v IND2+ pass TDsIND @ PIT48.0¢—no books——Kalshi only—Kalshi →
Aaron RodgersPIT v IND250+ pass ydsIND @ PIT33.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +163 / u -203—over · Kalshi 35.6¢under · Novig 67¢—Kalshi →
Aaron RodgersPIT v IND275+ pass ydsIND @ PIT21.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +264—over · Kalshi 25.3¢—Kalshi →
Ashton DulinIND v PITanytime TDIND @ PIT13.5¢—one-sidedo +488o +360over · BetRivers 12.5¢—Kalshi →
Ben SkowronekPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT6.5¢—one-sidedo +1233o +750over · DK 6.7¢—Kalshi →
Daniel JonesIND v PIT1+ pass TDsIND @ PIT74.0¢—no books——Kalshi only—Kalshi →
Daniel JonesQBIND v PIT2+ pass TDsIND @ PIT35.0¢—no books——Kalshi only🔒Kalshi →
Daniel JonesIND v PIT200+ pass ydsIND @ PIT58.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero -190 / u +144—over · Kalshi 61.7¢under · Novig 41¢—Kalshi →
Daniel JonesIND v PIT225+ pass ydsIND @ PIT43.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +100 / u -127—over · Kalshi 45.7¢under · Novig 55.9¢—Kalshi →
Daniel JonesIND v PIT10+ rush ydsIND @ PIT51.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero -133 / u +104o -138over · Kalshi 53.8¢under · Novig 49¢—Kalshi →
Daniel JonesIND v PIT15+ rush ydsIND @ PIT36.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +144 / u -186o +132over · Kalshi 39.7¢under · Novig 65¢—Kalshi →
Daniel JonesIND v PIT25+ rush ydsIND @ PIT15.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +376 / u -567o +355over · Kalshi 18¢under · Novig 85¢—Kalshi →
Darnell WashingtonPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT20.0¢—one-sidedo +335 / u -400o +260over · Kalshi 22.2¢under · Novig 80¢—Kalshi →
DK MetcalfPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT34.0¢—one-sidedo +170 / u -900o +130over · Kalshi 36.6¢under · Kalshi 68.6¢—Kalshi →
DK MetcalfPIT v IND60+ rec ydsIND @ PIT43.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +135 / u -167o +138over · ProphetX 42¢under · Kalshi 60.7¢—Kalshi →
DK MetcalfPIT v IND70+ rec ydsIND @ PIT33.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +208 / u -257o +205over · Novig 32.5¢under · Kalshi 70.5¢—Kalshi →
Germie BernardPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT19.5¢—one-sidedo +900o +600over · DK 9.1¢—Kalshi →
Jaylen WarrenPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT50.5¢—one-sidedo +100 / u -1567o -420over · BetRivers 48.5¢under · Kalshi 51.8¢—Kalshi →
Jaylen WarrenPIT v IND2+ TDsIND @ PIT14.5¢—no books——Kalshi only—Kalshi →
Jonathan TaylorIND v PITanytime TDIND @ PIT59.5¢—one-sidedo -170 / u -1567o -240over · Kalshi 61.7¢under · Kalshi 42.7¢—Kalshi →
Jonathan TaylorIND v PIT2+ TDsIND @ PIT20.0¢—no books——Kalshi only—Kalshi →
Jonathan TaylorRBIND v PIT70+ rush ydsIND @ PIT66.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero -257 / u +178o -300over · Kalshi 68.6¢under · Novig 36¢🔒Kalshi →
Jonathan TaylorIND v PIT80+ rush ydsIND @ PIT55.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero -163 / u +122o -184over · Kalshi 59.7¢under · Novig 45¢—Kalshi →
Jonathan TaylorIND v PIT90+ rush ydsIND @ PIT42.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero -108 / u -117o -108over · Kalshi 47.7¢under · Novig 53.9¢—Kalshi →
Jonathan TaylorIND v PIT100+ rush ydsIND @ PIT37.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +135 / u -163o +132over · Kalshi 40.7¢under · Novig 62¢—Kalshi →
Josh DownsIND v PITanytime TDIND @ PIT26.5¢—one-sidedo +213o +166over · Kalshi 29.4¢—Kalshi →
Josh DownsIND v PIT60+ rec ydsIND @ PIT47.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +104o +104over · Novig 49¢—Kalshi →
Josh DownsIND v PIT90+ rec ydsIND @ PIT20.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +300o +285over · Kalshi 23.2¢—Kalshi →
Pat FreiermuthPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT23.0¢—one-sidedo +285o +215over · Kalshi 25.3¢—Kalshi →
Pat FreiermuthPIT v IND15+ rec ydsIND @ PIT73.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero -456o -400over · Kalshi 78.2¢—Kalshi →
Pat FreiermuthPIT v IND25+ rec ydsIND @ PIT55.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero -150o -156over · DK 53.5¢under · Kalshi 48.7¢—Kalshi →
Pat FreiermuthPIT v IND40+ rec ydsIND @ PIT31.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +203 / u -245o +194over · Novig 33¢under · Novig 71¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT23.0¢—one-sidedo +355o +270over · DK 21.7¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND25+ rec ydsIND @ PIT72.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero -186 / u +144o -210over · Novig 65¢under · Kalshi 31.5¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND35+ rec ydsIND @ PIT67.5¢off-ladderoff-ladder——Kalshi only—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND40+ rec ydsIND @ PIT55.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +127 / u -144o +132over · ProphetX 43.1¢under · Kalshi 46.7¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND50+ rec ydsIND @ PIT37.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +208 / u -245o +215over · ProphetX 31.7¢under · Kalshi 64.6¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND60+ rec ydsIND @ PIT28.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +317o +320over · ProphetX 23.8¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND70+ rec ydsIND @ PIT17.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +471o +490over · ProphetX 16.9¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND80+ rec ydsIND @ PIT12.0¢off-ladderoff-laddero +641o +740over · ProphetX 11.9¢—Kalshi →
Roman WilsonPIT v IND4+ recIND @ PIT44.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +163o +164over · ProphetX 37.9¢—Kalshi →
Seth McGowanIND v PITanytime TDIND @ PIT8.5¢—one-sidedo +953o +600over · DK 9.1¢—Kalshi →
Travis HomerPIT v INDanytime TDIND @ PIT6.0¢—one-sidedo +1011o +650over · BetRivers 4.8¢—Kalshi →
Tyler WarrenIND v PITanytime TDIND @ PIT28.0¢—one-sidedo +199 / u -4900o +178over · Kalshi 30.4¢under · Kalshi 74.4¢—Kalshi →
Tyler WarrenIND v PIT60+ rec ydsIND @ PIT35.5¢off-ladderoff-laddero +133 / u -163o +122over · Kalshi 38.6¢under · Novig 62¢—Kalshi →
52 of 52 two-sided strikes · + 178 listed on Kalshi, not yet priced · Our P(over) is Pro · book consensus as of Oct 8, 3:15 PM ET

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Colts vs Steelers player prop ladders for Week 5: the Kalshi price at every strike vs the sportsbook consensus
The Colts vs Steelers prop ladders with the widest market disagreement this week — free to share. Updates as the market moves.

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A live card locked to Colts vs Steelers, Week 5 — the Kalshi price at every spread strike for this one game — for a preview post or a game-day thread. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

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Indianapolis ColtsPittsburgh SteelersEvery game this week →

The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike

Strikes above, distribution here: our full margin curve beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.

How to read this board — and what we are not claiming

Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.

Colts vs Steelers props — FAQ

What are the player props for Colts vs Steelers?

52 Kalshi player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Week 5 — passing, rushing, receiving and scoring lines — each shown on this page beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, with the cheapest venue for each side named.

Where are Colts vs Steelers player props priced best?

The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.

What is the gap column?

The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.

Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?

Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 52 strikes with a real two-sided book; 178 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.

Can you trade NFL player props on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL player-prop contracts — for example, will a quarterback record 275 or more passing yards. Each contract settles at $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if no, so its price in cents is the market's implied probability, and traders buy and sell it from each other until it settles.

How is a Kalshi prop different from a prop at the books?

A Kalshi prop is an exchange contract: traders take either side from each other, the price moves with the order book, and a position can be sold before kickoff. At the books the house sets the line. This page reads the books' implied probability at the same line as each Kalshi strike so the two can be compared directly.

What is an Oracle Ladder?

An Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market as a curve — for player props, beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line. Our model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any strike where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refused rather than shown.

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