Bills vs Raiders player props — Kalshi prices vs the books
Every Kalshi player-prop strike for this game with a real two-sided book, priced against the sportsbook consensus at the same line and the exchanges that quote it, with the cheapest venue for each side named. Week 6. Game preview and model line →
Quick Answer
As of October 14, 2026, Kalshi lists 40 player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Bills vs Raiders, Week 6.
Kalshi as of Oct 14, 8:20 AM ET · books as of Oct 14, 8:15 AM ET · 153 Kalshi prop strikes listed for this game · 40 with a real two-sided book · 0 priced against 3+ books
This week on the boardNFL Week 6 predictions →Week 7 predictions →Week 5 results →
Week 6 gamesSeahawks at BroncosTexans at JaguarsBears at FalconsRavens at BrownsTitans at ColtsJets at PatriotsSaints at GiantsPanthers at EaglesSteelers at BuccaneersCardinals at RamsChargers at ChiefsBills at RaidersCowboys at PackersCommanders at 49ers
Oracle calls for this game
Where our projection disagrees with the Kalshi price by enough. The only thing on this page that says play.
| Player | Contract | Matchup | Call | Our proj | Our odds | Mkt | Edge | Tier | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB | 2+ pass TDsover 1.5 | BUF vs LV | NO | 1.4 | 59% | 48¢ | +11.2 pp | HIGH | Buy NO → |
| James CookRBWatch | 90+ rush ydsover 89.5 | BUF vs LV | NO | 🔒 | MODERATE | Buy NO → | |||
2 of 2 props · 1 locked (Pro)
Watch — the disagreement is real, but our inputs for that player are limited or contradicted, so we are not calling it a play. Watch rows are capped at MODERATE, can never be the top call, and are graded separately from the published record.
Prop market board — Bills vs Raiders
Gap is the Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus at that strike, in cents. Exchange quotes are raw and one-sided, as quoted. A gap is a price difference, not a call.
| Player | Prop | Game | Kalshi | Consensus | Gap | Novig | ProphetX | Best price | Our P(over) | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton JeantyLV v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 52.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 56.7¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Ashton JeantyLV v BUF | 25+ rec yds | BUF @ LV | 48.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Ashton JeantyLV v BUF | 40+ rec yds | BUF @ LV | 25.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Ashton JeantyLV v BUF | 40+ rush yds | BUF @ LV | 65.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Brock BowersLV v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 49.0¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Fanatics 50¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Brock BowersLV v BUF | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LV | 12.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Brock BowersLV v BUF | 70+ rec yds | BUF @ LV | 57.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Brock BowersLV v BUF | 80+ rec yds | BUF @ LV | 47.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| BUF Bills D/STBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 11.0¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 13.8¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 32.0¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 35.6¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Dalton KincaidBUF v LV | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LV | 5.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| James CookBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 59.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Fanatics 61.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| James CookBUF v LV | 70+ rush yds | BUF @ LV | 71.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| James CookRBBUF v LV | 90+ rush yds | BUF @ LV | 53.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| James CookBUF v LV | 100+ rush yds | BUF @ LV | 44.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 60.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Fanatics 63¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 2+ TDs | BUF @ LV | 21.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 1+ pass TDs | BUF @ LV | 83.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenQBBUF v LV | 2+ pass TDs | BUF @ LV | 52.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | 🔒 | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 150+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 90.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 175+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 83.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 225+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 57.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 250+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 40.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 275+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 27.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 300+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 15.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 40+ rush yds | BUF @ LV | 37.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Josh AllenBUF v LV | 50+ rush yds | BUF @ LV | 25.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Keon ColemanBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 22.0¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Fanatics 21.1¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Khalil ShakirBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 27.0¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 30.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 5.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 6.4¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | 2+ pass TDs | BUF @ LV | 58.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | 3+ pass TDs | BUF @ LV | 27.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | 200+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 73.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | 225+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 61.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | 250+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 46.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | 275+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 32.0¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Kirk CousinsLV v BUF | 300+ pass yds | BUF @ LV | 18.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Mike WashingtonLV v BUF | 15+ rush yds | BUF @ LV | 51.5¢ | — | no books | — | — | Kalshi only | — | Kalshi → |
| Ray DavisBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 7.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 8.5¢ | — | Kalshi → |
| Ty JohnsonBUF v LV | anytime TD | BUF @ LV | 13.5¢ | — | one-sided | — | — | over · Kalshi 15.9¢ | — | Kalshi → |
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The Ladder: the shape of the distribution vs every strike
Strikes above, distribution here: our full margin curve beside the Kalshi price at each rung, with the verdict — SHAPE, LOCATION or PRICED. This week's widest gap, auto-advancing.
How to read this board — and what we are not claiming
Consensus is the median de-vigged probability across every sportsbook quoting a line, read at the Kalshi strike — exact when a book quotes that line, interpolated when two quoted lines bracket it, refused when they do not. Kalshi prices are the mid of a real two-sided book only. This page carries at least 40 such strikes or it does not exist; we are not claiming to beat the market, only to show where each price is.
Bills vs Raiders props — FAQ
What are the player props for Bills vs Raiders?
40 Kalshi player-prop strikes with a real two-sided book for Week 6 — passing, rushing, receiving and scoring lines — each shown on this page beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line, with the cheapest venue for each side named.
Where are Bills vs Raiders player props priced best?
The "best price" column on each strike names the venue with the cheapest price for that side, in cents per $1 of payout — Kalshi net of its fee, sportsbooks and exchanges at their raw quote. It only appears when at least two venues quote the exact strike, because a best price needs a comparison.
What is the gap column?
The Kalshi mid minus the sportsbook consensus probability read at the same strike, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is pricing the over above the books, negative means it is cheaper. A gap is a price difference, not a recommendation.
Why are some Kalshi strikes not shown here?
Kalshi lists a game's ladder early and most strikes stay unpriced until a day or two before kickoff. This page shows the 40 strikes with a real two-sided book; 113 more are listed and not yet priced. A 1¢ bid against a 99¢ ask is a listing, not a price.
Can you trade NFL player props on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists NFL player-prop contracts — for example, will a quarterback record 275 or more passing yards. Each contract settles at $1 if the answer is yes and $0 if no, so its price in cents is the market's implied probability, and traders buy and sell it from each other until it settles.
How is a Kalshi prop different from a prop at the books?
A Kalshi prop is an exchange contract: traders take either side from each other, the price moves with the order book, and a position can be sold before kickoff. At the books the house sets the line. This page reads the books' implied probability at the same line as each Kalshi strike so the two can be compared directly.
What is an Oracle Ladder?
An Oracle Ladder shows every Kalshi strike for one market as a curve — for player props, beside the sportsbook consensus at the same line. Our model's own number is published only between 30% and 70%, the band where it is measured calibrated, and any strike where it sits more than 30 points from the Kalshi price is refused rather than shown.
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