NHL Teams 2026-27: Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds
All 32 clubs, grouped by division: the simulation's playoff and Cup chances, the Kalshi make-the-playoffs price and the Goal Light power rank. Each team links to its own page.
Quick Answer
As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, Carolina Hurricanes lead the 10,000-season sim at 20.5% to win the Stanley Cup. Closest to the playoff line: Pittsburgh Penguins 53%, Washington Capitals 53%, Columbus Blue Jackets 55%, Anaheim Ducks 44%.
Atlantic Division · Eastern Conference
| Team | Playoffs (sim) | Kalshi | Cup (sim) | Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 84% | 87¢ | 3.9% | 7 |
| Ottawa Senators | 71% | 64¢ | 2.6% | 11 |
| Florida Panthers | 69% | 75¢ | 2.1% | 9 |
| Boston Bruins | 59% | 50¢ | 0.9% | 22 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 41% | 50¢ | 0.7% | 20 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 37% | 62¢ | 0.5% | 21 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 24% | 13¢ | 0.3% | 17 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 4% | 47¢ | 0.0% | 29 |
Metropolitan Division · Eastern Conference
| Team | Playoffs (sim) | Kalshi | Cup (sim) | Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 99% | 93¢ | 20.5% | 1 |
| New Jersey Devils | 83% | 56¢ | 6.4% | 5 |
| New York Rangers | 57% | 46¢ | 1.1% | 18 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 55% | 35¢ | 1.4% | 13 |
| Washington Capitals | 53% | 80¢ | 1.0% | 16 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 53% | 37¢ | 1.7% | 12 |
| New York Islanders | 11% | 31¢ | 0.1% | 24 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 1% | 18¢ | 0.0% | 27 |
Central Division · Western Conference
| Team | Playoffs (sim) | Kalshi | Cup (sim) | Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | 100% | 89¢ | 17.9% | 2 |
| Utah Mammoth | 98% | 78¢ | 10.0% | 4 |
| Dallas Stars | 85% | 78¢ | 3.1% | 6 |
| Minnesota Wild | 79% | 79¢ | 1.8% | 14 |
| St. Louis Blues | 65% | 36¢ | 1.4% | 15 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 30% | 41¢ | 0.1% | 23 |
| Nashville Predators | 6% | 32¢ | 0.0% | 28 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 0% | 20¢ | 0.0% | 31 |
Pacific Division · Western Conference
| Team | Playoffs (sim) | Kalshi | Cup (sim) | Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vegas Golden Knights | 100% | 56¢ | 14.8% | 3 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 98% | 86¢ | 6.1% | 8 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 59% | 37¢ | 1.2% | 10 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 44% | 62¢ | 0.3% | 19 |
| Seattle Kraken | 32% | 34¢ | 0.2% | 25 |
| San Jose Sharks | 2% | 51¢ | 0.0% | 32 |
| Calgary Flames | 2% | 7¢ | 0.0% | 26 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 1% | 7¢ | 0.0% | 30 |
Stanley Cup odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs model →·Tonight's NHL predictions →
NHL teams — frequently asked
How are NHL playoff chances calculated here?
We play out the rest of the regular season 10,000 times from the Goal Light game model, apply the NHL format (top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference), and count how often each team qualifies. The run updates every morning after the night's results.
Where do the Kalshi prices come from?
Each team page shows the mid of the live Kalshi contract — make the playoffs, division, conference, Stanley Cup and the season-points ladder — next to the simulation. Polymarket appears on the Cup and conference rows, labelled as its international book. A contract with no two-sided price shows "—", never an estimate.
What does the power rank measure?
The Goal Light rating: how many chances a team creates and allows on expected goals, with a 45-day half-life so it tracks current play. Rank 1 is the strongest team in the league on that measure.
Is a gap between the model and Kalshi a recommendation?
No. A gap is disagreement between a simulation and a market on a contract that settles months from now. Read it as where the two differ, then decide and size any position yourself. Trade responsibly.