Western Conference · Central Division

Dallas Stars Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Stars three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Stars make the playoffs in 85% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 78¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 3.1% (Kalshi 5¢), and project to 101.2 points. Power rank: 6th of 32.

Playoff chance

85%

model · Kalshi 78¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 85% → 85%

Stanley Cup

3.1%

model · Kalshi 5¢ · Polymarket (intl) 6¢

Power rank

6th / 32

unchanged in 7 days · creates chances 21st, suppresses 1st

Dallas Stars' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	85.4%	78¢	—	+7.4pp	Kalshi →
Win the Central Division	5.3%	14¢	—	-9.2pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	6.8%	10¢	13¢	-2.7pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	3.1%	5¢	6¢	-1.4pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	1.0%	2¢	—	-1.0pp	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 101.2 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 100+ closest to a coin flip at 48¢ (sim 59%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 97¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 95¢ · sim 100%
80+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 100%
85+ · Kalshi 88¢ · sim 98%
90+ · Kalshi 78¢ · sim 93%
95+ · Kalshi 64¢ · sim 80%
100+ · Kalshi 48¢ · sim 59%
105+ · Kalshi 33¢ · sim 35%
110+ · Kalshi 18¢ · sim 15%
115+ · Kalshi 8¢ · sim 5%

Next games

Oct 20 · 8:00 PM ET — vs Boston BruinsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 8:00 PM ET — vs Winnipeg JetsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 25 · 6:00 PM ET — vs New York IslandersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Jake Oettinger — allows about 2% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 5 starts in 30 days
Casey DeSmith — allows about 1% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Central Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Dallas Stars odds — frequently asked

What are the Dallas Stars' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Stars a 85% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 101.2 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 78¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Dallas Stars' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Stars a 3.1% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 5¢ and Polymarket's international book at 6¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Dallas Stars rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Stars rank 6th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 21st in chance creation and 1st in chance suppression, unchanged from 6th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Dallas Stars play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Boston Bruins on Oct 20. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.