NHL Goal Scorer Odds & Player Props Today
Every player contract Kalshi lists tonight. Goals are priced by Goal Light — model probability, the Kalshi price, the books' implied number, and the gap — with one headline call, the Oracle Goal of the Day. Points, assists and goalie saves sit below at the Kalshi price.
Quick Answer
11 games tonight; Kalshi has not listed the player-goal contracts yet — they open through the afternoon.
Anytime goal — every listed contract
No player-goal contracts listed yet.
First goal scorer — reference
No first-goal contracts listed yet.
Shots on goal — what the books imply
Kalshi lists no shots market. This is the books\' read only: the de-vigged median P(over) where books quote both sides, else the implied over. No model claim.
No shots-on-goal lines posted yet — books post them through the afternoon.
Player contracts grade under the NHL Goal of the Day record only — see the hub. Trade responsibly.
NHL goal scorer odds — frequently asked
How is a player's goal probability priced?
His share of his team's goals (a 60-game weighted blend of goals and individual expected goals, shrunk to a position prior) times the team's expected goals in this matchup from the Goal Light grid — so the goalie he faces and the game's pace are already in the number. P(1+ goal) is 1 − e^−λ.
What is Goal Dependency?
The share of a team's goals the player accounts for over the window. At the top of the NHL it sits around 20–25%; we label anyone at 20% or more a Dependency Sniper — the players a team's scoring actually runs through.
Why does the books column say "implied", not "consensus"?
Sportsbooks quote anytime-goal props on the Yes side only, so the price cannot be de-vigged. We show the median implied probability across books, hold included, and label it that way. Shots on goal are quoted two ways and are de-vigged where both sides quote.
Are the points, assists and goalie-saves props priced by the model?
Not yet. Kalshi lists them and we show every one at the live Kalshi price — the mid when there is a real two-sided book, otherwise the ask — so the whole NHL player board is in one place. Goal Light prices goals today; points, assists and saves get a model only once it has been backtested, and none of these rows ever carries a call until then.
How are 2+ goals and hat tricks priced?
From the same expected-goals number as the anytime contract: with λ his expected goals tonight, P(2+) = 1 − e^−λ(1 + λ) and P(3+) adds the λ²/2 term. A 25% anytime scorer is roughly a 3% two-goal night and well under 1% for a hat trick.
Where is the shots-on-goal model?
There isn't one on this page. Kalshi lists no shots market, so the shots board is the books' implied number only — a market read, with no model claim beside it.
When does a player contract become a position?
When the model clears the Kalshi price by 4 points net of the spread on a two-sided book, the gap is under 20 points (a wider one is usually a lineup fact we do not have), and the player is on the day's line combinations with his team's goalie confirmed.
Is the first-goal board a position?
No. First goal is a reference market: the model prices it by competing exponentials and grades it, but at the prices Kalshi lists the edge is thin and the variance enormous.