Western Conference · Pacific Division

Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Oilers three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Oilers make the playoffs in 98% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 86¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 6.1% (Kalshi 7¢), and project to 107.5 points. Power rank: 8th of 32.

Playoff chance

98%

model · Kalshi 86¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 87% → 98%

Stanley Cup

6.1%

model · Kalshi 7¢ · Polymarket (intl) 10¢

Power rank

8th / 32

▼ 3 in 7 days · creates chances 17th, suppresses 4th

Edmonton Oilers' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	97.5%	86¢	—	+11.6pp	Kalshi →
Win the Pacific Division	27.4%	46¢	—	-18.1pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	11.7%	17¢	14¢	-4.8pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	6.1%	7¢	10¢	-0.4pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	6.0%	7¢	—	-1.0pp	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 107.5 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 105+ closest to a coin flip at 54¢ (sim 65%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 97¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 97¢ · sim 100%
80+ · Kalshi 96¢ · sim 100%
85+ · Kalshi 94¢ · sim 100%
90+ · Kalshi 91¢ · sim 99%
95+ · Kalshi 83¢ · sim 95%
100+ · Kalshi 69¢ · sim 84%
105+ · Kalshi 54¢ · sim 65%
110+ · Kalshi 38¢ · sim 40%
115+ · Kalshi 21¢ · sim 19%

Next games

Oct 20 · 9:00 PM ET — vs Minnesota WildNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 9:00 PM ET — vs Carolina HurricanesNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET — vs Toronto Maple LeafsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Devon Levi — allows about 1% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 5 starts in 30 days
Tristan Jarry — allows about 2% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Pacific Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Edmonton Oilers odds — frequently asked

What are the Edmonton Oilers' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Oilers a 98% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 107.5 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 86¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Edmonton Oilers' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Oilers a 6.1% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 7¢ and Polymarket's international book at 10¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Edmonton Oilers rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Oilers rank 8th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 17th in chance creation and 4th in chance suppression, down 3 from 5th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Edmonton Oilers play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Minnesota Wild on Oct 20. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.