Western Conference · Pacific Division

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Kings three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Kings make the playoffs in 59% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 37¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 1.2% (Kalshi 3¢), and project to 93.5 points. Power rank: 10th of 32.

Playoff chance

59%

model · Kalshi 37¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 57% → 59%

Stanley Cup

1.2%

model · Kalshi 3¢ · Polymarket (intl) 2¢

Power rank

10th / 32

▲ 5 in 7 days · creates chances 22nd, suppresses 3rd

Los Angeles Kings' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	59.1%	37¢	—	+22.1pp	Kalshi →
Win the Pacific Division	1.5%	2¢	—	+0.0pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	2.7%	3¢	4¢	+0.2pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	1.2%	3¢	2¢	-1.3pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.1%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 93.5 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 90+ closest to a coin flip at 47¢ (sim 69%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 94¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 88¢ · sim 99%
80+ · Kalshi 79¢ · sim 96%
85+ · Kalshi 65¢ · sim 86%
90+ · Kalshi 47¢ · sim 69%
95+ · Kalshi 31¢ · sim 45%
100+ · Kalshi 19¢ · sim 23%
105+ · Kalshi 9¢ · sim 9%
110+ · Kalshi 5¢ · sim 2%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET — at Washington CapitalsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 7:30 PM ET — at New York IslandersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 3:30 PM ET — at New Jersey DevilsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Darcy Kuemper — allows about 3% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 4 starts in 30 days
Anton Forsberg — allows about what the shots he faces should produce (league average) · 1 start in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Pacific Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Los Angeles Kings odds — frequently asked

What are the Los Angeles Kings' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Kings a 59% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 93.5 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 37¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Los Angeles Kings' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Kings a 1.2% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 3¢ and Polymarket's international book at 2¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Los Angeles Kings rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Kings rank 10th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 22nd in chance creation and 3rd in chance suppression, up 5 from 15th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Los Angeles Kings play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: at Washington Capitals on Oct 20. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.