Western Conference · Pacific Division

Vegas Golden Knights Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Golden Knights three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Golden Knights make the playoffs in 100% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 56¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 14.8% (Kalshi 6¢), and project to 113.9 points. Power rank: 3rd of 32.

Playoff chance

100%

model · Kalshi 56¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 96% → 100%

Stanley Cup

14.8%

model · Kalshi 6¢ · Polymarket (intl) 8¢

Power rank

3rd / 32

▼ 2 in 7 days · creates chances 6th, suppresses 2nd

Vegas Golden Knights' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	99.8%	56¢thin	—	+43.8pp	Kalshi →
Win the Pacific Division	70.0%	36¢thin	—	+34.5pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	24.4%	14¢	14¢	+9.9pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	14.8%	6¢	8¢	+9.3pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	22.7%	7¢	—	+15.7pp	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 113.9 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 105+ closest to a coin flip at 52¢ (sim 89%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 97¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 97¢ · sim 100%
80+ · Kalshi 96¢ · sim 100%
85+ · Kalshi 94¢ · sim 100%
90+ · Kalshi 89¢ · sim 100%
95+ · Kalshi 80¢ · sim 99%
100+ · Kalshi 66¢ · sim 97%
105+ · Kalshi 52¢ · sim 89%
110+ · Kalshi 32¢ · sim 72%
115+ · Kalshi 17¢ · sim 48%

Next games

Oct 20 · 10:30 PM ET — vs Tampa Bay LightningNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 8:00 PM ET — at St. Louis BluesNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET — at Columbus Blue JacketsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Carter Hart — allows about what the shots he faces should produce (league average) · 6 starts in 30 days
Adin Hill — allows about 2% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 3 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Pacific Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Vegas Golden Knights odds — frequently asked

What are the Vegas Golden Knights' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Golden Knights a 100% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 113.9 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 56¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Vegas Golden Knights' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Golden Knights a 14.8% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 6¢ and Polymarket's international book at 8¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Vegas Golden Knights rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Golden Knights rank 3rd of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 6th in chance creation and 2nd in chance suppression, down 2 from 1st a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Vegas Golden Knights play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Tampa Bay Lightning on Oct 20. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.