Eastern Conference · Atlantic Division

Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Senators three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Senators make the playoffs in 71% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 64¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 2.6% (Kalshi 4¢), and project to 98.7 points. Power rank: 11th of 32.

Playoff chance

71%

model · Kalshi 64¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 97% → 71%

Stanley Cup

2.6%

model · Kalshi 4¢ · Polymarket (intl) 3¢

Power rank

11th / 32

▼ 1 in 7 days · creates chances 20th, suppresses 6th

Ottawa Senators' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	71.1%	64¢	—	+7.6pp	Kalshi →
Win the Atlantic Division	19.3%	11¢	—	+8.3pp	Kalshi →
Win the Eastern Conference	7.6%	4¢	7¢	+4.1pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	2.6%	4¢	3¢	-0.9pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.5%	2¢	—	-0.9pp	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 98.7 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 105+ closest to a coin flip at 45¢ (sim 23%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 96¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 95¢ · sim 100%
80+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 99%
85+ · Kalshi 90¢ · sim 96%
90+ · Kalshi 78¢ · sim 88%
95+ · Kalshi 76¢ · sim 70%
100+ · Kalshi 43¢ · sim 46%
105+ · Kalshi 45¢ · sim 23%
110+ · Kalshi 43¢ · sim 9%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 2%

Next games

Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET — vs Florida PanthersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET — vs San Jose SharksNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET — vs New York RangersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Linus Ullmark — allows about 3% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 6 starts in 30 days
Samuel Ersson — allows about 4% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Atlantic Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Ottawa Senators odds — frequently asked

What are the Ottawa Senators' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Senators a 71% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 98.7 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 64¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Ottawa Senators' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Senators a 2.6% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 4¢ and Polymarket's international book at 3¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Ottawa Senators rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Senators rank 11th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 20th in chance creation and 6th in chance suppression, down 1 from 10th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Ottawa Senators play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Florida Panthers on Oct 21. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.