Eastern Conference · Atlantic Division

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Maple Leafs three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 4% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 47¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.0%, and project to 79.3 points. Power rank: 29th of 32.

Playoff chance

model · Kalshi 47¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 2% → 4%

Stanley Cup

0.0%

model · Kalshi — · Polymarket (intl) 3¢

Power rank

29th / 32

▲ 1 in 7 days · creates chances 23rd, suppresses 30th

Toronto Maple Leafs' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	3.7%	47¢thin	—	-42.8pp	Kalshi →
Win the Atlantic Division	0.1%	3¢	—	-2.4pp	Kalshi →
Win the Eastern Conference	0.1%	4¢	3¢	-3.5pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.0%	—thin	3¢	—	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 79.3 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 105+ closest to a coin flip at 44¢ (sim 0%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 95¢ · sim 89%
75+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 72%
80+ · Kalshi 89¢ · sim 49%
85+ · Kalshi 81¢ · sim 26%
90+ · Kalshi 74¢ · sim 11%
95+ · Kalshi 65¢ · sim 3%
100+ · Kalshi 57¢ · sim 1%
105+ · Kalshi 44¢ · sim 0%
110+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 19 · 7:30 PM ET — vs San Jose SharksNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET — at Columbus Blue JacketsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET — vs New York RangersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Sergei Bobrovsky — allows about what the shots he faces should produce (league average) · 5 starts in 30 days
Anthony Stolarz — allows about 1% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 3 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Atlantic Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Toronto Maple Leafs odds — frequently asked

What are the Toronto Maple Leafs' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Maple Leafs a 4% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 79.3 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 47¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Toronto Maple Leafs' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Maple Leafs a 0.0% Stanley Cup winner and Polymarket's international book at 3¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Toronto Maple Leafs rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Maple Leafs rank 29th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 23rd in chance creation and 30th in chance suppression, up 1 from 30th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Toronto Maple Leafs play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs San Jose Sharks on Oct 19. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.