Eastern Conference · Metropolitan Division

New York Rangers Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Rangers three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Rangers make the playoffs in 57% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 46¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 1.1% (Kalshi 2¢), and project to 95.7 points. Power rank: 18th of 32.

Playoff chance

57%

model · Kalshi 46¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 26% → 57%

Stanley Cup

1.1%

model · Kalshi 2¢ · Polymarket (intl) 2¢

Power rank

18th / 32

▲ 1 in 7 days · creates chances 24th, suppresses 8th

New York Rangers' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	57.2%	46¢	—	+11.7pp	Kalshi →
Win the Metropolitan Division	2.3%	5¢	—	-2.2pp	Kalshi →
Win the Eastern Conference	3.4%	5¢	4¢	-1.1pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	1.1%	2¢	2¢	-0.4pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.1%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 95.7 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 90+ closest to a coin flip at 54¢ (sim 78%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 95¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 100%
80+ · Kalshi 84¢ · sim 98%
85+ · Kalshi 71¢ · sim 92%
90+ · Kalshi 54¢ · sim 78%
95+ · Kalshi 36¢ · sim 57%
100+ · Kalshi 24¢ · sim 32%
105+ · Kalshi 9¢ · sim 13%
110+ · Kalshi 5¢ · sim 4%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 1%

Next games

Oct 19 · 7:00 PM ET — vs Anaheim DucksNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET — at Toronto Maple LeafsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET — at Ottawa SenatorsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Igor Shesterkin — allows about 4% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 5 starts in 30 days
Dylan Garand — allows about 1% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 4 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Metropolitan Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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New York Rangers odds — frequently asked

What are the New York Rangers' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Rangers a 57% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 95.7 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 46¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the New York Rangers' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Rangers a 1.1% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 2¢ and Polymarket's international book at 2¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the New York Rangers rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Rangers rank 18th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 24th in chance creation and 8th in chance suppression, up 1 from 19th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the New York Rangers play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Anaheim Ducks on Oct 19. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.