Eastern Conference · Metropolitan Division

New York Islanders Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Islanders three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Islanders make the playoffs in 11% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 31¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.1%, and project to 84.4 points. Power rank: 24th of 32.

Playoff chance

11%

model · Kalshi 31¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 39% → 11%

Stanley Cup

0.1%

model · Kalshi — · Polymarket (intl) 1¢

Power rank

24th / 32

unchanged in 7 days · creates chances 18th, suppresses 25th

New York Islanders' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	10.8%	31¢	—	-19.7pp	Kalshi →
Win the Metropolitan Division	0.1%	3¢	—	-2.4pp	Kalshi →
Win the Eastern Conference	0.3%	2¢	8¢	-1.2pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.1%	—thin	1¢	—	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 84.4 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 85+ closest to a coin flip at 56¢ (sim 50%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 92¢ · sim 97%
75+ · Kalshi 83¢ · sim 89%
80+ · Kalshi 72¢ · sim 73%
85+ · Kalshi 56¢ · sim 50%
90+ · Kalshi 38¢ · sim 26%
95+ · Kalshi 25¢ · sim 11%
100+ · Kalshi 13¢ · sim 3%
105+ · Kalshi 6¢ · sim 1%
110+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET — vs Anaheim DucksNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 7:30 PM ET — vs Los Angeles KingsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 25 · 6:00 PM ET — at Dallas StarsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Ilya Sorokin — allows about 4% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 5 starts in 30 days
Semyon Varlamov — allows about 1% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Metropolitan Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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New York Islanders odds — frequently asked

What are the New York Islanders' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Islanders a 11% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 84.4 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 31¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the New York Islanders' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Islanders a 0.1% Stanley Cup winner and Polymarket's international book at 1¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the New York Islanders rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Islanders rank 24th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 18th in chance creation and 25th in chance suppression, unchanged from 24th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the New York Islanders play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Anaheim Ducks on Oct 20. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.