Western Conference · Central Division

Chicago Blackhawks Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Blackhawks three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Blackhawks make the playoffs in 0% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 20¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.0%, and project to 70.7 points. Power rank: 31st of 32.

Playoff chance

model · Kalshi 20¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 2% → 0%

Stanley Cup

0.0%

model · Kalshi — · Polymarket (intl) 0¢

Power rank

31st / 32

▲ 1 in 7 days · creates chances 31st, suppresses 29th

Chicago Blackhawks' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	0.4%	20¢	—	-19.1pp	Kalshi →
Win the Central Division	0.0%	2¢	—	-1.5pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	0.0%	—thin	0¢	—	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.0%	—thin	0¢	—	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 70.7 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 75+ closest to a coin flip at 49¢ (sim 31%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 80¢ · sim 55%
75+ · Kalshi 49¢ · sim 31%
80+ · Kalshi 48¢ · sim 14%
85+ · Kalshi 49¢ · sim 4%
90+ · Kalshi — · sim 1%
95+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
100+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
105+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
110+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 23 · 8:00 PM ET — vs Montreal CanadiensNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 25 · 3:00 PM ET — vs Florida PanthersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 27 · 8:00 PM ET — vs Los Angeles KingsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Spencer Knight — allows about what the shots he faces should produce (league average) · 6 starts in 30 days
Arvid Soderblom — allows about 2% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Central Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Chicago Blackhawks odds — frequently asked

What are the Chicago Blackhawks' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Blackhawks a 0% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 70.7 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 20¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Chicago Blackhawks' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Blackhawks a 0.0% Stanley Cup winner and Polymarket's international book at 0¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Chicago Blackhawks rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Blackhawks rank 31st of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 31st in chance creation and 29th in chance suppression, up 1 from 32nd a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Chicago Blackhawks play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Montreal Canadiens on Oct 23. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.