Western Conference · Central Division

Utah Mammoth Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Mammoth three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Mammoth make the playoffs in 98% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 78¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 10.0% (Kalshi 4¢), and project to 109.7 points. Power rank: 4th of 32.

Playoff chance

98%

model · Kalshi 78¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 63% → 98%

Stanley Cup

10.0%

model · Kalshi 4¢ · Polymarket (intl) 3¢

Power rank

4th / 32

▼ 1 in 7 days · creates chances 3rd, suppresses 11th

Utah Mammoth's futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	98.3%	78¢	—	+20.3pp	Kalshi →
Win the Central Division	28.1%	21¢	—	+7.6pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	17.3%	9¢	11¢	+8.3pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	10.0%	4¢	3¢	+6.5pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	9.7%	3¢	—	+6.7pp	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 109.7 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 100+ closest to a coin flip at 57¢ (sim 91%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 97¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 96¢ · sim 100%
80+ · Kalshi 95¢ · sim 100%
85+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 100%
90+ · Kalshi 86¢ · sim 99%
95+ · Kalshi 74¢ · sim 97%
100+ · Kalshi 57¢ · sim 91%
105+ · Kalshi 39¢ · sim 75%
110+ · Kalshi 24¢ · sim 51%
115+ · Kalshi 13¢ · sim 27%

Next games

Oct 19 · 9:00 PM ET — vs Pittsburgh PenguinsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 10:00 PM ET — at Seattle KrakenNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ET — vs Tampa Bay LightningNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Karel Vejmelka — allows about 1% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 6 starts in 30 days
Sebastian Cossa — allows about 1% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Central Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Utah Mammoth odds — frequently asked

What are the Utah Mammoth's playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Mammoth a 98% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 109.7 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 78¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Utah Mammoth's Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Mammoth a 10.0% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 4¢ and Polymarket's international book at 3¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Utah Mammoth rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Mammoth rank 4th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 3rd in chance creation and 11th in chance suppression, down 1 from 3rd a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Utah Mammoth play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Pittsburgh Penguins on Oct 19. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.