Western Conference · Pacific Division

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Flames three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Flames make the playoffs in 2% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 7¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.0%, and project to 73.7 points. Power rank: 26th of 32.

Playoff chance

model · Kalshi 7¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 4% → 2%

Stanley Cup

0.0%

model · Kalshi — · Polymarket (intl) 0¢

Power rank

26th / 32

▲ 3 in 7 days · creates chances 27th, suppresses 27th

Calgary Flames' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	1.7%	7¢	—	-4.8pp	Kalshi →
Win the Pacific Division	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	0.0%	—thin	2¢	—	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.0%	—thin	0¢	—	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 73.7 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 70+ closest to a coin flip at 35¢ (sim 70%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 35¢ · sim 70%
75+ · Kalshi 26¢ · sim 46%
80+ · Kalshi 16¢ · sim 23%
85+ · Kalshi — · sim 9%
90+ · Kalshi — · sim 3%
95+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
100+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
105+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
110+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 22 · 9:00 PM ET — vs Minnesota WildNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ET — vs Detroit Red WingsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 26 · 8:30 PM ET — vs Toronto Maple LeafsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Dustin Wolf — allows about 3% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 5 starts in 30 days
Devin Cooley — allows about 1% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Pacific Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

Embed this team card on your site

A live card locked to the Calgary Flames — the simulated playoff chance against the Kalshi price, the Stanley Cup chance and the power rank — for a fan site, a newsletter or a subreddit sidebar. Free; the credit line is the only ask. No API key, no signup.

Article width · 560×300

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nhl-team-card/flames/hero"
  width="560"
  height="300"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Calgary Flames — playoff chance vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Calgary Flames playoff chances and Stanley Cup odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/teams/flames?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nhl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Sidebar · 320×380

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nhl-team-card/flames/sidebar"
  width="320"
  height="380"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Calgary Flames — playoff chance vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Calgary Flames playoff chances and Stanley Cup odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/teams/flames?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nhl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

MPU · ad slot · 300×250

<iframe
  src="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/embed/nhl-team-card/flames/mpu"
  width="300"
  height="250"
  frameborder="0"
  loading="lazy"
  title="Calgary Flames — playoff chance vs Kalshi — PredictionMarketsPicks">
</iframe>
<p style="margin:6px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 system-ui,sans-serif;text-align:center">Calgary Flames playoff chances and Stanley Cup odds from <a href="https://predictionmarketspicks.com/nhl/teams/flames?utm_source=embed&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=nhl-team-card">PredictionMarketsPicks</a></p>

Calgary Flames odds — frequently asked

What are the Calgary Flames' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Flames a 2% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 73.7 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 7¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Calgary Flames' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Flames a 0.0% Stanley Cup winner and Polymarket's international book at 0¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Calgary Flames rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Flames rank 26th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 27th in chance creation and 27th in chance suppression, up 3 from 29th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Calgary Flames play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Minnesota Wild on Oct 22. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.