Western Conference · Pacific Division

Seattle Kraken Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Kraken three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Kraken make the playoffs in 32% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 34¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.2%, and project to 88.3 points. Power rank: 25th of 32.

Playoff chance

32%

model · Kalshi 34¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 25% → 32%

Stanley Cup

0.2%

model · Kalshi — · Polymarket (intl) 1¢

Power rank

25th / 32

unchanged in 7 days · creates chances 26th, suppresses 23rd

Seattle Kraken's futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	31.7%	34¢	—	-1.8pp	Kalshi →
Win the Pacific Division	0.4%	2¢	—	-1.1pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	0.4%	2¢	4¢	-1.1pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.2%	—thin	1¢	—	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 88.3 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 75+ closest to a coin flip at 44¢ (sim 96%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 99%
75+ · Kalshi 44¢ · sim 96%
80+ · Kalshi 38¢ · sim 86%
85+ · Kalshi 30¢ · sim 68%
90+ · Kalshi 22¢ · sim 44%
95+ · Kalshi 16¢ · sim 22%
100+ · Kalshi — · sim 9%
105+ · Kalshi — · sim 2%
110+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 20 · 9:40 PM ET — vs Detroit Red WingsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 10:00 PM ET — vs Utah MammothNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ET — vs Minnesota WildNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Philipp Grubauer — allows about 2% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 4 starts in 30 days
Joey Daccord — allows about 1% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 4 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Pacific Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Seattle Kraken odds — frequently asked

What are the Seattle Kraken's playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Kraken a 32% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 88.3 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 34¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Seattle Kraken's Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Kraken a 0.2% Stanley Cup winner and Polymarket's international book at 1¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Seattle Kraken rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Kraken rank 25th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 26th in chance creation and 23rd in chance suppression, unchanged from 25th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Seattle Kraken play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Detroit Red Wings on Oct 20. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.