Western Conference · Pacific Division

San Jose Sharks Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Sharks three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Sharks make the playoffs in 2% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 51¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.0% (Kalshi 4¢), and project to 74.8 points. Power rank: 32nd of 32.

Playoff chance

model · Kalshi 51¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 28% → 2%

Stanley Cup

0.0%

model · Kalshi 4¢ · Polymarket (intl) 2¢

Power rank

32nd / 32

▼ 1 in 7 days · creates chances 29th, suppresses 31st

San Jose Sharks' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	1.8%	51¢thin	—	-48.7pp	Kalshi →
Win the Pacific Division	0.0%	8¢	—	-7.5pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	0.0%	9¢	5¢	-8.5pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.0%	4¢	2¢	-3.5pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 74.8 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 95+ closest to a coin flip at 47¢ (sim 1%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 96¢ · sim 74%
75+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 51%
80+ · Kalshi 86¢ · sim 27%
85+ · Kalshi 75¢ · sim 11%
90+ · Kalshi 64¢ · sim 3%
95+ · Kalshi 47¢ · sim 1%
100+ · Kalshi 28¢ · sim 0%
105+ · Kalshi 14¢ · sim 0%
110+ · Kalshi 6¢ · sim 0%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 19 · 7:30 PM ET — at Toronto Maple LeafsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET — at Montreal CanadiensNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET — at Ottawa SenatorsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Yaroslav Askarov — allows about 3% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 5 starts in 30 days
Alex Nedeljkovic — allows about 1% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 2 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Pacific Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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San Jose Sharks odds — frequently asked

What are the San Jose Sharks' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Sharks a 2% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 74.8 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 51¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the San Jose Sharks' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Sharks a 0.0% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 4¢ and Polymarket's international book at 2¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the San Jose Sharks rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Sharks rank 32nd of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 29th in chance creation and 31st in chance suppression, down 1 from 31st a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the San Jose Sharks play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: at Toronto Maple Leafs on Oct 19. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.