Eastern Conference · Metropolitan Division

Philadelphia Flyers Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Flyers three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Flyers make the playoffs in 1% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 18¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.0%, and project to 73.4 points. Power rank: 27th of 32.

Playoff chance

model · Kalshi 18¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 73% → 1%

Stanley Cup

0.0%

model · Kalshi — · Polymarket (intl) 0¢

Power rank

27th / 32

▼ 1 in 7 days · creates chances 32nd, suppresses 17th

Philadelphia Flyers' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	0.5%	18¢	—	-17.0pp	Kalshi →
Win the Metropolitan Division	0.0%	2¢	—	-1.5pp	Kalshi →
Win the Eastern Conference	0.0%	—thin	3¢	—	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.0%	—thin	0¢	—	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 73.4 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 95+ closest to a coin flip at 53¢ (sim 0%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 91¢ · sim 69%
75+ · Kalshi 85¢ · sim 44%
80+ · Kalshi 78¢ · sim 22%
85+ · Kalshi 70¢ · sim 8%
90+ · Kalshi 60¢ · sim 2%
95+ · Kalshi 53¢ · sim 0%
100+ · Kalshi 41¢ · sim 0%
105+ · Kalshi 40¢ · sim 0%
110+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%
115+ · Kalshi — · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 19 · 7:00 PM ET — vs Colorado AvalancheNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET — at Buffalo SabresNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET — vs Anaheim DucksNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Joseph Woll — allows about 1% fewer goals than the shots he faces should produce · 5 starts in 30 days
Dan Vladar — allows about 1% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 4 starts in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Metropolitan Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Philadelphia Flyers odds — frequently asked

What are the Philadelphia Flyers' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Flyers a 1% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 73.4 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 18¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Philadelphia Flyers' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Flyers a 0.0% Stanley Cup winner and Polymarket's international book at 0¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Philadelphia Flyers rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Flyers rank 27th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 32nd in chance creation and 17th in chance suppression, down 1 from 26th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Philadelphia Flyers play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: vs Colorado Avalanche on Oct 19. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.