Western Conference · Pacific Division

Anaheim Ducks Playoff Chances & Stanley Cup Odds 2026-27

The Ducks three ways: our 10,000-season simulation, the live Kalshi contract and Polymarket's international book — side by side, never averaged.

Quick Answer

As of Oct 18, 6:41 PM ET, The Ducks make the playoffs in 44% of our 10,000 simulated seasons against 62¢ on Kalshi, win the Stanley Cup in 0.3% (Kalshi 3¢), and project to 90.5 points. Power rank: 19th of 32.

Playoff chance

44%

model · Kalshi 62¢

Last 14 sim runs (30 days): 77% → 44%

Stanley Cup

0.3%

model · Kalshi 3¢ · Polymarket (intl) 2¢

Power rank

19th / 32

▼ 5 in 7 days · creates chances 8th, suppresses 28th

Anaheim Ducks' futures: model vs Kalshi vs Polymarket

Contract	Sim	Kalshi	Polymarket (intl)	Sim − Kalshi
Make the playoffs	44.4%	62¢	—	-17.6pp	Kalshi →
Win the Pacific Division	0.7%	7¢	—	-5.8pp	Kalshi →
Win the Western Conference	0.9%	6¢	5¢	-4.6pp	Kalshi →
Win the Stanley Cup	0.3%	3¢	2¢	-2.2pp	Kalshi →
Presidents' Trophy	0.0%	—thin	—	—	Kalshi →

Kalshi is the mid on a two-sided book; Polymarket is its international book (Polymarket US is a separate venue with its own prices). A gap of 5 points or more is coloured. A gap is disagreement between a model and a market on a long-dated contract — not a guarantee.

Season points

Sim projection: 90.5 points. Kalshi's points ladder prices 95+ closest to a coin flip at 42¢ (sim 31%) — that rung is the market's median, not its mean. Kalshi →

All 10 rungs

70+ · Kalshi 95¢ · sim 100%
75+ · Kalshi 93¢ · sim 98%
80+ · Kalshi 85¢ · sim 91%
85+ · Kalshi 75¢ · sim 77%
90+ · Kalshi 60¢ · sim 55%
95+ · Kalshi 42¢ · sim 31%
100+ · Kalshi 27¢ · sim 13%
105+ · Kalshi 16¢ · sim 4%
110+ · Kalshi 8¢ · sim 1%
115+ · Kalshi 5¢ · sim 0%

Next games

Oct 19 · 7:00 PM ET — at New York RangersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET — at New York IslandersNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.
Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET — at New Jersey DevilsNot priced yet — the model prices each game on game day once projected starters post.

In net: goalie form

Lukas Dostal — allows about 1% more goals than the shots he faces should produce · 6 starts in 30 days
Ville Husso — allows about what the shots he faces should produce (league average) · 1 start in 30 days

Goalie factor = goals allowed ÷ expected goals allowed on every unblocked, non-empty-net attempt, shrunk toward league average. It is the layer that moves the game price when the starter changes.

Pacific Division rivals

All 32 NHL teams →·Stanley Cup odds, every team →·Tonight's NHL predictions →

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Anaheim Ducks odds — frequently asked

What are the Anaheim Ducks' playoff chances?

Our 10,000-season simulation gives the Ducks a 44% chance to make the 2026-27 playoffs (as of Oct 18), with 90.5 projected points. Kalshi's make-the-playoffs contract trades at 62¢, the market's implied probability. The sim re-runs every morning after the night's results.

What are the Anaheim Ducks' Stanley Cup odds?

The sim makes the Ducks a 0.3% Stanley Cup winner; Kalshi's champion contract trades at 3¢ and Polymarket's international book at 2¢ (as of Oct 18). Those are three different reads — a model and two markets — shown side by side and never averaged. A gap is disagreement, not a guarantee.

Where do the Anaheim Ducks rank in the NHL power ratings?

The Ducks rank 19th of 32 in the Goal Light power ratings (as of Oct 18) — 8th in chance creation and 28th in chance suppression, down 5 from 14th a week earlier. The ratings come from expected goals with a 45-day half-life, so they move with how a team is playing, not only its record.

When do the Anaheim Ducks play next, and how is the game priced?

Next up: at New York Rangers on Oct 19. The model prices each game on game day (10:45 AM ET) once the projected starting goalies post; until then the game shows "not priced yet".

The sim and ratings re-run at 6:15 AM ET; Kalshi and Polymarket prices refresh through the day. Educational analysis, not financial advice. Trade responsibly.