The 7 Oracles went live Thursday night with their Week 5 card: best favorite, best underdog, best over, best under and best props. The stream is below. This page is the board they were working from, read off Kalshi at about 8 PM ET Thursday, Oct. 8, with a link to every game.
▶ Watch on its own page, with the full transcript →
The Week 5 board
A Kalshi price is the market's probability: 78¢ means the market gives that team a 78% chance. The total is the strike where the over trades closest to 50¢, so it's the market's real line.
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Kalshi favorite | Total (over price) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Buccaneers at Cowboys | Cowboys 81¢ | 48.5 (52¢) |
| Sun 9:30 AM, London | Eagles vs. Jaguars | Jaguars 77¢ | 41.5 (52¢) |
| Sun 1 PM | Bengals at Dolphins | Bengals 75¢ | 42.5 (52¢) |
| Sun 1 PM | Raiders at Patriots | Patriots 64¢ | 45.5 (49¢) |
| Sun 1 PM | Vikings at Saints | Vikings 57¢ | 41.5 (51¢) |
| Sun 1 PM | Browns at Jets | Jets 57¢ | 39.5 (52¢) |
| Sun 1 PM | Colts at Steelers | Steelers 59¢ | 44.5 (49¢) |
| Sun 1 PM | Texans at Titans | Texans 78¢ | 37.5 (53¢) |
| Sun 1 PM | Giants at Commanders | Commanders 63¢ | 42.5 (49¢) |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Broncos at Chargers | Broncos 64¢ | 41.5 (52¢) |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Lions at Cardinals | Lions 71¢ | 54.5 (50¢) |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Bears at Packers | Bears 53¢ | 45.5 (51¢) |
| Sun 4:25 PM | 49ers at Seahawks | Seahawks 62¢ | 46.5 (49¢) |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Ravens at Falcons | Falcons 62¢ | 43.5 (52¢) |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Bills at Rams | Rams 62¢ | 54.5 (50¢) |
Prices are Kalshi mid-prices, rounded to the nearest cent. Chiefs and Panthers are on bye. The full week, with every game's spread ladder and model line, is on the Week 5 schedule.
Best favorites: Texans, Jaguars, Bengals
Three teams sit at 75¢ or higher on Sunday, and each is a road or neutral-site favorite.
Texans at Titans, Texans 78¢. The week's biggest Sunday price, about 7.5 points. It's also the lowest total on the board at 37.5, so the market is pricing a low-scoring game with Houston in front. Our model's own line on this game is under review this week, so the game page shows the market line as the headline.
Jaguars vs. Eagles in London, Jaguars 77¢. Philadelphia is a 24¢ underdog at a 9:30 AM ET kickoff. Live board: Eagles vs. Jaguars.
Bengals at Dolphins, Bengals 75¢. About 6.5 points, with Joe Burrow against a Miami offense led by Malik Willis. Live board: Bengals at Dolphins.
If you want a favorite without paying 75¢ or more, step down the ladder. Detroit at 71¢ in Arizona is the next tier, and every game page's spread ladder shows what each extra point costs. Here's Lions–Cardinals:
Best underdogs: where the price is closest
Packers 48¢ at home against the Bears. The market has Green Bay as a home underdog against Chicago, with Case Keenum expected to start for the Bears. Our line on this game is held until both quarterbacks are confirmed. Live board: Bears at Packers.
Saints 45¢ against the Vikings. New Orleans's starter isn't settled, so we publish this game both ways, an Oracle Fork. With Tyler Shough, our line has the Vikings by 2.5. With Spencer Rattler, it's the Vikings by 3.8. Either way Minnesota wins about 59% of the time, close to the 57¢ the market charges. Live board: Vikings at Saints.
Browns 45¢ at the Jets. This is the game where our model and the market disagree, and it's not in Cleveland's favor. See the Jets below.
If you want the long shots, the Titans (23¢), Eagles (24¢) and Dolphins (26¢) each pay about four times your stake if they win. Use the probability converter to turn any of these prices into odds you're used to.
Our one game position: Jets over the Browns
Our published line has the Jets winning 58.8% of the time, with Geno Smith starting against Deshaun Watson. Kalshi has the Jets at about 57¢. That's a MODERATE call, and it's the only game on the Week 5 board where our line clears the market by enough to publish a position. We'd take it at 57¢ or better on the Jets moneyline. Above that, there's nothing left.
Every other game is priced within a point or two of our line, or held for a quarterback decision. Ravens at Falcons on Sunday night is in the second group, with Tyler Huntley expected to start for Baltimore. A model that tells you which games to leave alone is doing its job. Live board: Browns at Jets.
Best overs and unders: the totals ladder
These are the market's lines, not ours. Each game page carries the full ladder, so you can buy the exact strike you believe in rather than the one that's handed to you.
Highest: Lions at Cardinals, 54.5. The over trades at 49.5¢. Lower strikes cost more: 52.5 at 55.5¢, 53.5 at 53.5¢. Higher strikes pay more: 55.5 at 46¢, 56.5 at 43.5¢. See the 54.5 contract on Kalshi.
Monday night: Bills at Rams, 54.5. Same line, same 49.5¢ over. Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford are the two starting quarterbacks on the week's other shootout total. Live board: Bills at Rams.
Lowest: Texans at Titans, 37.5. The over is 52.5¢, and 38.5 is 47.5¢. That's the only total on the board below 39. See the 37.5 contract on Kalshi.
Next lowest: Browns at Jets, 39.5. The over is 51.5¢.
Small rungs carry a fee on every contract. Check what a cheap strike costs you with the Kalshi fee calculator before you build a ladder.
Best props: five strikes where Kalshi and the books disagree
Of 3,416 Kalshi player-prop strikes listed for Week 5, 39 could be priced against three or more books. Five were at least 5¢ apart. A gap is a price difference, not a call. Our model's read is listed beside each, and every one of those reads is labelled WATCH, which means it hasn't cleared every publish gate.
| Player | Strike | Kalshi | Books | Cheaper side on Kalshi | Our read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner, SEA | 3+ receptions | 47.5¢ | 55% | Over | Over, WATCH |
| Roman Wilson, PIT | 3+ receptions | 62¢ | 55% | Under | Under, WATCH |
| Michael Wilson, ARI | 6+ receptions | 56¢ | 50% | Under | — |
| Braelon Allen, NYJ | 70+ rushing yards | 54.5¢ | 49% | Under | — |
| Chris Olave, NO | 7+ receptions | 46.5¢ | 52% | Over | — |
The two to look at are the ones where the books and our model point the same way. AJ Barner 3+ catches is 47.5¢ on Kalshi while five books average 55%, and our model has him at 63.8% with a 3.45-catch projection. Roman Wilson under 3 catches is the mirror: Kalshi charges 62¢ for the over, the books say 55%, and our model has the over at 49.7%.
Braelon Allen's rushing line is worth a look on its own. His 70+ strike carries more than 8,000 contracts of open interest, the deepest market of the five, and the books have it under 50%. His full ladder is on his player page.
Every Kalshi prop this week, priced against the books venue by venue, is on the NFL prop board. More player pages from this slate: Josh Jacobs · Tyler Shough · KC Concepcion · Alvin Kamara · Juwan Johnson · Kyler Murray · Jaylen Warren · DK Metcalf · CeeDee Lamb.
Before you take any of these
Every price above is from about 8 PM ET Thursday. Lines will move through the weekend, most of all on Sunday morning when inactives post at 90 minutes before each kickoff. Prediction-market contracts can be sold before kickoff, so getting in early is a choice you can unwind. Size each position before you enter it with the Kelly calculator, and if you want to combine legs, the free Combo Edge Builder prices the combination and tells you if it's worth taking. The live model-versus-market board is at /nfl/edges, and every Fade the Field episode with a written breakdown is at Fade the Field.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange: contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢ as market-implied probabilities and settle on the real outcome. Everything here is market data and our model's read at a stated price on a stated date. Nothing here is advice. Trade responsibly.