It's Monday. Week 5 isn't even over, and no team has filed a Week 6 injury report. So this isn't a list of picks. It's a list of forks: for every game, what we're watching, why it matters, and what changes if it breaks one way or the other. Every price is Kalshi at 8 AM ET Monday, Oct. 12. Every line is DraftKings via ESPN from the same morning, with its opener beside it. Every usage number comes from the ESPN box scores for Weeks 1–5.
How to read this page
Each game gets three lines:
- Watching: the one status that moves this game.
- Why: what the box scores say happened the last time it broke.
- If: what we expect to move (the line, a player's volume) when it resolves.
A Kalshi price is the market's probability: 70¢ means a 70% chance. A fork is not a call. It's the question the market hasn't answered yet.
The Week 6 board
| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Kalshi (Mon 8 AM) | DraftKings spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | QB status on our board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15 PM | Seahawks at Broncos | Seahawks 60¢ | DEN +2.5 → SEA −3 | 43.5 → 41.5 | Set |
| Sun 9:30 AM, London | Texans vs. Jaguars | Jaguars 58¢ | HOU −1.5 → JAX −3 | 41.5 → 43.5 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Bears at Falcons | Bears 63¢ | CHI −3 → CHI −3 | 47.5 → 47.5 | Fork: Penix / Tagovailoa |
| Sun 1 PM | Ravens at Browns | Ravens 70¢ | BAL −6.5 → BAL −4.5 | 44.5 → 40.5 | Priced with Huntley |
| Sun 1 PM | Titans at Colts | Colts 75¢ | IND −3.5 → IND −7 | 48.5 → 44.5 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Jets at Patriots | Patriots 76¢ | NE −9.5 → NE −7 | 42.5 → 44.5 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Saints at Giants | Saints 50¢ / Giants 49¢ | NYG −2.5 → NO −1.5 | 45.5 → 44.5 | Priced with Winston |
| Sun 1 PM | Panthers at Eagles | Eagles 51¢ | PHI −6.5 → PHI −1.5 | 43.5 → 42.5 | Set |
| Sun 1 PM | Steelers at Buccaneers | Steelers 58¢ | TB −1.5 → PIT −3 | 45.5 → 40.5 | Priced with Daniels |
| Sun 4:05 PM | Cardinals at Rams | Rams 86¢ | LAR −13.5 → LAR −12.5 | 46.5 → 52.5 | Set |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Chargers at Chiefs | Chiefs 79¢ | KC −2.5 → KC −8.5 | 46.5 → 42.5 | Set |
| Sun 4:25 PM | Bills at Raiders | Bills 71¢ | BUF −6.5 → BUF −6 | 47.5 → 52.5 | Set |
| Sun 8:20 PM | Cowboys at Packers | Packers 51¢ | GB −3 → GB −1.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | Set |
| Mon 8:15 PM | Commanders at 49ers | 49ers 78¢ | SF −5.5 → SF −7.5 | 50.5 → 50.5 | Set |
Kalshi prices are mid-prices, rounded. ESPN's archive carries no timestamp for an opener, so we don't say what moved a line, only that it moved. The Bengals, Dolphins, Lions and Vikings are on bye. The full week, with every spread ladder, is on the Week 6 schedule.
The five forks that decide the week
1. Lamar Jackson's ankle: Ravens at Browns
Watching: whether Jackson practices this week. He missed Sunday night in Atlanta with an ankle injury, and Tyler Huntley started.
Why: the usual read is that no Lamar means more Derrick Henry. Sunday didn't show it. Henry carried 24 times for a 69% share of Baltimore's rushes. In Weeks 1–4 with Jackson, he averaged 22.25 carries and 70%. What changed was the passing: Huntley threw 32 times (24 of 32, 201 yards, 2 TDs), more than Jackson did in any game this season. Zay Flowers still drew 9 of 31 targets. Justice Hill was the one who grew, with 4 carries for 73 yards and 4 targets, his most of the season.
If Jackson is out again: Henry's carries probably look like any other week, and the volume to watch is Huntley's attempts and Hill's touches. Kalshi already has the Ravens at 70¢ with Huntley on our board, and the DraftKings total has dropped from 44.5 to 40.5. If he's in: our board is priced for the wrong quarterback, and this is the first game page that changes. Live board: Ravens at Browns.
On the Cleveland side, Quinshon Judkins has handled 52–63% of the carries every week (14 on Sunday), and running back Raheim Sanders (hip) and right tackle Tytus Howard (knee) left Sunday's loss in the fourth quarter, per the AP.
2. Michael Penix Jr.'s ribs: Bears at Falcons
Watching: Penix's practice status. He left Sunday night's overtime loss with a rib injury and Tua Tagovailoa finished. Penix predicted he will return next week, per the AP.
Why: Penix has been efficient in his three starts: 18 of 25, 15 of 20 and 19 of 32, never under 223 yards. Drake London has drawn 30–43% of the targets in all three. On the other side, Chicago has started three quarterbacks this season. Tyson Bagent started Weeks 4 and 5, with Caleb Williams out for a third straight game on Sunday (hamstring). In Bagent's Week 4 start, Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards. Monangai missed Sunday (toe, thumb), and Chicago's running game shrank to 24 attempts. Roschon Johnson filled in with 5 carries and 7 targets.
If Penix plays: our board's Penix version applies, and Kalshi has the Bears at 63¢ as of Monday. If it's Tagovailoa: the page already shows that version. This is a fork on our board, so it carries both lines until Atlanta names a starter. The Chicago fork is Monangai: if he's back, Chicago's run game with Bagent looked like Week 4. If not, it's D'Andre Swift and a committee. Live board: Bears at Falcons.
3. Baker Mayfield's thumb: Steelers at Buccaneers
Watching: whether Mayfield gets back from the thumb injury that has kept Jalon Daniels under center for two weeks.
Why: our board prices this game with Daniels. Separately, the DraftKings line has gone from Tampa Bay −1.5 to Pittsburgh −3, and the total from 45.5 to 40.5. With Daniels starting, Tampa Bay leaned on Bucky Irving: 16 and 21 carries the last two weeks, and 165 yards against Dallas on Thursday.
If Mayfield is back: the total is the number that should move most. If not: Irving's volume is the most reliable thing in this game. For Pittsburgh, Roman Wilson left Sunday with a hand injury after one target, per the AP (doubtful on ESPN's in-game list), and Germie Bernard drew 9 of 30 targets on Sunday. Live board: Steelers at Buccaneers.
4. CeeDee Lamb's quad: Cowboys at Packers, Sunday night
Watching: Lamb's status after the quad injury from Thursday night's loss to Tampa Bay. Dallas gets ten days between games.
Why: in Week 4, Lamb drew 21 of Dallas's 43 targets. Hurt in Week 5, he drew five and caught two for nine yards, and George Pickens took 13 targets for 130 yards. Prescott has thrown 40-plus passes three weeks running, so whoever is on the field gets fed.
If Lamb is limited or out: Pickens is the target, and his last two "with Lamb" weeks were 11 and 3 targets. That's the range you're paying for. If Lamb is fine: Week 4 is the template. This is also one of three games where our screen currently flags a position: Green Bay to win, MODERATE, at 50.5¢, where the books' line implies 54.4%. Kalshi has it at 51¢. Green Bay lost defensive tackle Javon Hargrave late in Sunday's game to what Matt LaFleur believes is an Achilles injury, per the AP. Live board: Cowboys at Packers.
5. Deebo Samuel's hamstring: Commanders at 49ers, Monday night
Watching: Samuel, who hurt his hamstring on the play he fumbled Sunday in Seattle and didn't return, per the AP.
Why: in that game, which Samuel left late in the third quarter, Mike Evans drew 10 of 27 targets (37%) for 113 yards. George Kittle drew six, the same as Week 4.
If Samuel sits: Evans' target share is the number. If he plays: expect it back near the 21–28% Evans ran in Weeks 1 and 4. On the Washington side, Jayden Daniels ran 9 times for 103 yards on Sunday after the elbow that had our board forked last week, and Terry McLaurin returned from his hamstring. The screen also flags Washington here, MODERATE, at 22.5¢. Live board: Commanders at 49ers.
The rest of the slate
Seahawks at Broncos (Thursday). Watching: Denver's corners. Pat Surtain II (ankle) and Riley Moss (ribs) both missed Sunday, and this is a short week. Why: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has drawn at least 29% of Seattle's targets in every game. If both corners sit again, that's the matchup. And the one that doesn't matter: Zach Charbonnet's torn ACL. He hasn't had a carry in five games, and Emanuel Wilson took 77% of the carries on Sunday. Kalshi: Seahawks 60¢. Game page.
Texans vs. Jaguars (London). Watching: David Montgomery's groin. DeMeco Ryans said he may miss some time, per the AP. Why: Woody Marks took 15 of Houston's 27 carries (56%) on Sunday; Montgomery had 5 before he left in the second quarter. In Weeks 1–4 Marks never had more than 9. If Montgomery is out, Marks is the lead back. Jacksonville's fork is up front: left tackle Anton Harrison was carted off with a knee injury, per the AP. The line has moved 4.5 points toward Jacksonville. Game page.
Titans at Colts. Watching: the line more than the injury report. It's gone from Indianapolis −3.5 to −7 and the total from 48.5 to 44.5. Tennessee corner Cor'Dale Flott didn't return Sunday (chest). Colts 75¢. Game page.
Jets at Patriots. Watching: TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) and left tackle Will Campbell (knee). Neither returned Sunday, per the AP. Why: Henderson had 4 carries before he left; Rhamondre Stevenson (13) and Corey Kiner (6) carried the rest of the load. For the Jets, Kenyon Sadiq is in the concussion protocol, per the AP, and Garrett Wilson drew 11 of 29 targets without much help. Patriots 76¢. Game page.
Saints at Giants. Watching: the Giants' line, after right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor was carried off with a calf injury. Why: Jameis Winston threw 54 times in Sunday's tie, and Malik Nabers drew 20 targets. That's a volume number, not a sustainable one. The line flipped from Giants −2.5 to Saints −1.5, and Kalshi has it as a coin flip. Game page.
Panthers at Eagles. Watching: Philadelphia's defense after London. Jonathan Greenard (ankle) missed Sunday, and Jalyx Hunt and Michael Carter II were hurt. Carolina is coming off its bye; the Eagles are coming back from London. Why it matters: the line has moved five points, from Philadelphia −6.5 to −1.5. Our screen still holds an Eagles position entered Oct. 6 at 55¢. Kalshi now has Philadelphia at 51¢, so the market has moved against it. Game page.
Cardinals at Rams and Bills at Raiders. Watching: tonight. Both the Rams and Bills play Monday night and get a short turnaround. Both totals have jumped five or more points since they opened (Cardinals–Rams 46.5 to 52.5, Bills–Raiders 47.5 to 52.5). Anything that comes out of tonight's game moves these two first. Cardinals at Rams · Bills at Raiders.
Chargers at Chiefs. Watching: the Chargers' receiver room. Quentin Johnston (chest) and Brenen Thompson (quadriceps) missed Sunday, and Tre' Harris left with a hamstring injury. Justin Herbert threw for 121 yards and no Charger had more than four targets. Why: the line has gone from Kansas City −2.5 to −8.5, the biggest spread move of the week, and the Chargers are 0-5. Chiefs 79¢. Game page.
Look-ahead: the Vikings' targets (Week 7)
Minnesota is on bye this week, so this one waits for Colts at Vikings on Oct. 25. But the bye week is when this gets decided. T.J. Hockenson was helped off Sunday after hitting his head, per the AP (ESPN lists a concussion), and Jordan Addison didn't appear in Sunday's box score.
Here's what Minnesota looked like with Addison out and Hockenson gone early (one target). Kyler Murray's 30 attempts produced 29 targets: Justin Jefferson 7 (24%), tight end Gavin Bartholomew 6, Myles Price 4, Tai Felton 3, Aaron Jones 3. Bartholomew had one target all season before Sunday. And when Jefferson missed Week 4, Hockenson soaked up 13 targets and caught all 13. If both Hockenson and Addison are out for Week 7, Jefferson's share and Bartholomew's role are the two numbers to price. We'll write it up when the Week 7 prices list.
What our screen flags right now
Three games clear our screen on Monday morning, all MODERATE: Green Bay against Dallas, Washington at San Francisco, and Philadelphia against Carolina. Each is a gap between Kalshi's price and the probability the books' line implies, not a forecast of the score. The screen reprices every time the market moves, and an injury report can erase a gap in an hour. The live list is on the NFL edges board.
When this page updates
Wednesday, after the first injury reports. Friday, after final statuses. Every fork above will have resolved one way or the other by then, and the game pages flip with it. Kalshi lists Week 6 player props later in the week. When it does, the strikes worth watching are the ones above: Henry and Hill, Marks, Irving, Pickens, Evans, Smith-Njigba. They'll be on the prop board with the books beside them.