2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 1 model lines vs. Kalshi
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2026NFL Fantasy Draft Kit — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Half-PPR · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
This is where our model and the draft room disagree. We run a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position (ADP). Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
Read it as a draft-day cheat sheet: target the sleepers a round or two before their ADP, and let someone else reach for the busts. Refreshed monthly through the off-season as rosters and ADP move.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jauan JenningsWR47 · MIN · ADP 146
- Rashid ShaheedWR33 · SEA · ADP 120
- Khalil ShakirWR36 · BUF · ADP 110
- Cooper KuppWR55 · SEA · ADP 172
- Josh DownsWR37 · IND · ADP 108
Top Busts to Fade
- Antonio WilliamsWR92 · WAS · ADP 165
- Bhayshul TutenRB33 · JAX · ADP 55
- Jalen NailorWR81 · LV · ADP 144
- Luther Burden IIIWR45 · CHI · ADP 52
- Chris OlaveWR24 · NO · ADP 23
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR20 | 79 | +27 | Sleeper | 226.1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR22 | 78 | +22 | Sleeper | 211.1 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | TE23 | 149 | -25 | Bust Risk | 77.7 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | WR24 | 23 | -34 | Strong Bust | 146.9 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | WR29 | 37 | -29 | Strong Bust | 143.9 |
| Michael Pittman | WR | PIT | WR30 | 80 | +14 | Sleeper | 182.1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR33 | 120 | +43 | Sleeper | 225.4 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | RB33 | 55 | -46 | Strong Bust | 78.0 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | WR36 | 110 | +33 | Sleeper | 199.0 |
| Josh Downs | WR | IND | WR37 | 108 | +29 | Sleeper | 190.9 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | WR39 | 61 | -20 | Strong Bust | 141.6 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR45 | 52 | -35 | Bust Risk | 116.4 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LA | RB46 | 117 | -30 | Bust Risk | 78.3 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR47 | 146 | +44 | Sleeper | 194.8 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | WR48 | 68 | -27 | Bust Risk | 117.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | WR49 | 87 | -11 | Bust Risk | 129.9 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR53 | 90 | -22 | Bust Risk | 109.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | WR55 | 172 | +33 | Sleeper | 163.4 |
| Tank Dell | WR | HOU | WR61 | 180 | +17 | Sleeper | 126.9 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR65 | 112 | -33 | Strong Bust | 95.7 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR68 | 125 | -25 | Bust Risk | 102.7 |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | TEN | WR69 | 124 | -28 | Strong Bust | 102.1 |
| John Metchie III | WR | CAR | WR71 | 119 | -33 | Strong Bust | 95.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR81 | 144 | -46 | Strong Bust | 81.4 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | WR92 | 165 | -63 | Bust Risk | 75.0 |
25 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP— positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)
These are our model's calls, not the consensus. Where our projected rank and the market's ADP disagree is the whole point: the sleepers we have higher than the room, and the busts we have lower. We publish our number and let you see the gap.