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2026 NFL Fantasy Draft Kit — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Half-PPR · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
This is where our model and the draft room disagree. We run a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position (ADP). Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
Read it as a draft-day cheat sheet: target the sleepers a round or two before their ADP, and let someone else reach for the busts. Refreshed monthly through the off-season as rosters and ADP move.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jauan JenningsWR36 · MIN · ADP 159
- Rashid ShaheedWR38 · SEA · ADP 150
- Zay FlowersWR13 · BAL · ADP 67
- Jakobi MeyersWR33 · JAX · ADP 115
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR8 · SEA · ADP 55
Top Busts to Fade
- De'Zhaun StriblingWR48 · SF · ADP 48
- Luther Burden IIIWR50 · CHI · ADP 73
- Michael WilsonWR32 · ARI · ADP 38
- KC ConcepcionWR34 · CLE · ADP 45
- Mike EvansWR49 · SF · ADP 80
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | WR8 | 55 | +12 | Strong Sleeper | 287.6 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | WR9 | 56 | +12 | Strong Sleeper | 283.7 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | WR10 | 58 | +12 | Strong Sleeper | 255.8 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | WR13 | 67 | +13 | Strong Sleeper | 251.5 |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | WR14 | 60 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 225.8 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | WR15 | 64 | +10 | Strong Sleeper | 242.0 |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | WR17 | 70 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 201.9 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | WR19 | 68 | +8 | Strong Sleeper | 200.6 |
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | TE21 | 126 | -9 | Bust Risk | 98.6 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | WR21 | 26 | -10 | Strong Bust | 166.6 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | WR23 | 37 | -8 | Strong Bust | 165.7 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | WR24 | 27 | -12 | Strong Bust | 155.6 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR28 | 88 | +8 | Sleeper | 188.9 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LAR | RB28 | 51 | -11 | Strong Bust | 82.6 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | WR29 | 32 | -15 | Strong Bust | 152.6 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | TE30 | 151 | -11 | Bust Risk | 75.7 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | WR31 | 95 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 188.9 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR32 | 38 | -16 | Strong Bust | 143.0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR33 | 115 | +13 | Sleeper | 202.5 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | WR34 | 45 | -16 | Strong Bust | 139.6 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR36 | 159 | +21 | Sleeper | 204.9 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | WR37 | 120 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 185.4 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR38 | 150 | +17 | Sleeper | 200.7 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | WR43 | 94 | -4 | Bust Risk | 162.9 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | SF | WR48 | 48 | -29 | Strong Bust | 111.6 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | WR49 | 80 | -16 | Bust Risk | 130.2 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR50 | 73 | -20 | Bust Risk | 123.0 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | WR52 | 105 | -10 | Bust Risk | 137.3 |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | NO | WR53 | 93 | -15 | Strong Bust | 127.3 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | RB53 | 157 | -9 | Strong Bust | 66.2 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR62 | 141 | -9 | Bust Risk | 112.2 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR63 | 130 | -13 | Bust Risk | 105.3 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR70 | 168 | -11 | Bust Risk | 100.3 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | WR78 | 179 | -15 | Strong Bust | 82.9 |
34 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)
These are our model's calls, not the consensus. Where our projected rank and the market's ADP disagree is the whole point: the sleepers we have higher than the room, and the busts we have lower. We publish our number and let you see the gap.
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