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2026 NFL Fantasy Draft Kit — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Half-PPR · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
This is where our model and the draft room disagree. We run a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position (ADP). Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
Read it as a draft-day cheat sheet: target the sleepers a round or two before their ADP, and let someone else reach for the busts. Refreshed monthly through the off-season as rosters and ADP move.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jauan JenningsWR44 · MIN · ADP 154
- Rashid ShaheedWR36 · SEA · ADP 124
- Jakobi MeyersWR27 · JAX · ADP 88
- Brian Thomas Jr.WR24 · JAX · ADP 72
- DK MetcalfWR25 · PIT · ADP 65
Top Busts to Fade
- Luther Burden IIIWR50 · CHI · ADP 53
- Mike EvansWR48 · SF · ADP 56
- Matthew GoldenWR63 · GB · ADP 104
- Michael WilsonWR47 · ARI · ADP 73
- Tyler AllgeierRB54 · ARI · ADP 168
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | TE | NYG | TE20 | 139 | -8 | Bust Risk | 98.2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | JAX | WR24 | 72 | +11 | Sleeper | 189.1 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | WR25 | 65 | +8 | Sleeper | 187.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR27 | 88 | +15 | Sleeper | 202.1 |
| Carnell Tate | WR | TEN | WR29 | 78 | +8 | Strong Sleeper | 186.2 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | RB31 | 52 | -9 | Bust Risk | 95.0 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | WR33 | 86 | +8 | Sleeper | 184.5 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | WR35 | 61 | -4 | Bust Risk | 163.3 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR36 | 124 | +18 | Sleeper | 195.6 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | WR41 | 64 | -9 | Bust Risk | 153.1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | WR42 | 67 | -8 | Bust Risk | 154.5 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR44 | 154 | +20 | Sleeper | 203.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR47 | 73 | -11 | Bust Risk | 142.9 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | WR48 | 56 | -19 | Bust Risk | 133.1 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR50 | 53 | -23 | Bust Risk | 122.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | RB54 | 168 | -10 | Strong Bust | 65.5 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | RB56 | 177 | -9 | Strong Bust | 69.7 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | WR60 | 169 | +8 | Sleeper | 143.0 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR62 | 122 | -9 | Bust Risk | 112.0 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR63 | 104 | -14 | Bust Risk | 106.0 |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | SF | WR65 | 128 | -10 | Strong Bust | 112.6 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR76 | 165 | -10 | Bust Risk | 98.2 |
| Ryan Flournoy | WR | DAL | WR78 | 179 | -8 | Bust Risk | 92.3 |
23 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)
These are our model's calls, not the consensus. Where our projected rank and the market's ADP disagree is the whole point: the sleepers we have higher than the room, and the busts we have lower. We publish our number and let you see the gap.
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Draft with the model inside your AI assistant
This kit is a snapshot; the same 2026 board is live inside Claude, ChatGPT or Cursor — ask it for the best available at your pick, with the players already gone removed. All eight tools answer with no key and no account.