2026 Gridiron Edge is live — ratings, projections, and Week 8 model lines vs. Kalshi
Power ratings, MVP & championship edges, and every Week 8 game priced against the live prediction market.
2026 NFL Fantasy Draft Kit — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Half-PPR · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
This is where our model and the draft room disagree. We run a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position (ADP). Projections answer “what does he produce if he plays?”, so they assume a full slate and leave availability risk to you. The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
Read it as a draft-day cheat sheet: target the sleepers a round or two before their ADP, and let someone else reach for the busts. Refreshed monthly through the off-season as rosters and ADP move.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jauan JenningsWR37 · MIN · ADP 159
- Zay FlowersWR12 · BAL · ADP 67
- Jakobi MeyersWR30 · JAX · ADP 115
- Rashee RiceWR13 · KC · ADP 64
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR9 · SEA · ADP 55
Top Busts to Fade
- KC ConcepcionWR36 · CLE · ADP 45
- Luther Burden IIIWR45 · CHI · ADP 73
- Deebo Samuel Sr.WR72 · SF · ADP 177
- DJ MooreWR26 · BUF · ADP 27
- Jordyn TysonWR49 · NO · ADP 93
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Rank | Consensus ADP | vs ADP | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA | WR9 | 55 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 287.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | WR10 | 56 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 280.8 |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | WR11 | 58 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 262.4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | WR12 | 67 | +12 | Strong Sleeper | 266.7 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | WR13 | 64 | +10 | Strong Sleeper | 242.9 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | WR23 | 32 | -9 | Strong Bust | 168.4 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | WR25 | 37 | -10 | Strong Bust | 160.4 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LAR | RB26 | 51 | -10 | Strong Bust | 88.9 |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | WR26 | 27 | -14 | Strong Bust | 152.0 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR28 | 38 | -12 | Strong Bust | 156.0 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | TE30 | 151 | -11 | Bust Risk | 70.7 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR30 | 115 | +11 | Sleeper | 199.4 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | TEN | WR35 | 120 | +8 | Sleeper | 191.9 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | WR36 | 45 | -19 | Strong Bust | 134.7 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | MIN | WR37 | 159 | +13 | Sleeper | 199.8 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR40 | 150 | +9 | Sleeper | 193.5 |
| Mike Evans | WR | SF | WR43 | 80 | -13 | Bust Risk | 145.4 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR45 | 73 | -17 | Bust Risk | 129.0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | RB | LAC | RB48 | 154 | -9 | Bust Risk | 69.3 |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | NO | WR49 | 93 | -14 | Strong Bust | 124.0 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | WR50 | 105 | -12 | Bust Risk | 130.0 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | WR55 | 141 | -8 | Bust Risk | 121.5 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR58 | 130 | -13 | Bust Risk | 112.4 |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | LV | WR64 | 168 | -12 | Bust Risk | 110.6 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | SF | WR72 | 177 | -17 | Bust Risk | 96.8 |
25 players
Our Rank — our model's positional rank · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · vs ADP — positional slots our model disagrees with consensus (positive = we're higher = sleeper)
These are our model's calls, not the consensus. Where our projected rank and the market's ADP disagree is the whole point: the sleepers we have higher than the room, and the busts we have lower. We publish our number and let you see the gap.
Full player projections →Team power rankings →Methodology →Quarter-Season Report →
Off the draft board, onto the market: this week's NFL edge
A draft kit dates the day rooms move; this does not. The week's highest model-vs-Kalshi game edge, auto-advancing every week and refreshed every 5 minutes.
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The draft’s over. Your agent isn’t.
The same connector now prices the season: every Kalshi prop this week venue by venue, spread and win-total ladders against the whole model distribution, correlation-aware same-game combos, and the weekly game edges. The free tools answer with no key and no account.