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2026NFL Fantasy Draft Kit — Sleepers & Busts
2026 · Half-PPR · DAEPA Monte Carlo vs. consensus ADP
This is where our model and the draft room disagree. We run a 1,000-season Monte Carlo simulation for every skill player — built on Defense-Adjusted EPA (DAEPA), multi-year usage and efficiency, and weekly injury modeling — then compare each player's projected positional rank to their consensus Average Draft Position (ADP). The gaps are the edges: sleepers the field is letting slide, and busts going off the board too early.
Read it as a draft-day cheat sheet: target the sleepers a round or two before their ADP, and let someone else reach for the busts. Refreshed monthly through the off-season as rosters and ADP move.
Top Sleepers to Target
- Jakobi MeyersWR10 · JAX · ADP 104
- Khalil ShakirWR22 · BUF · ADP 129
- Daniel JonesQB2 · IND · ADP 146
- Tony PollardRB8 · TEN · ADP 80
- Travis HunterWR36 · JAX · ADP 174
Top Busts to Fade
- Antonio WilliamsWR114 · WAS · ADP 173
- Matthew GoldenWR87 · GB · ADP 122
- Emmett JohnsonRB87 · KC · ADP 178
- Bhayshul TutenRB58 · JAX · ADP 60
- Jalen McMillanWR85 · TB · ADP 152
| Player | Pos | Team | Our Pos Rank | Consensus ADP | Pos-Slot Edge | Call | Proj Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | QB14 | 14 | -13 | Strong Bust | 296.6 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | RB16 | 15 | -8 | Bust Risk | 153.6 |
| Brock Bowers | TE | LV | TE17 | 19 | -16 | Bust Risk | 96.7 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | TE10 | 20 | -8 | Bust Risk | 114.1 |
| Chris Olave | WR | NO | WR18 | 27 | -8 | Strong Bust | 142.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | WR20 | 30 | -8 | Strong Bust | 141.1 |
| Malik Nabers | WR | NYG | WR24 | 32 | -11 | Bust Risk | 135.4 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | WR4 | 35 | +10 | Sleeper | 196.3 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | CIN | WR23 | 36 | -8 | Bust Risk | 136.6 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI | TE11 | 37 | -8 | Bust Risk | 110.6 |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | WR41 | 38 | -25 | Strong Bust | 109.0 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | LAC | WR33 | 41 | -15 | Bust Risk | 121.1 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI | WR49 | 44 | -29 | Strong Bust | 95.4 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | QB16 | 45 | -13 | Strong Bust | 287.3 |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | WR39 | 48 | -18 | Bust Risk | 113.7 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | QB27 | 50 | -23 | Strong Bust | 198.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | RB29 | 52 | -11 | Bust Risk | 119.4 |
| Davante Adams | WR | LA | WR6 | 53 | +16 | Strong Sleeper | 188.8 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | RB58 | 60 | -37 | Bust Risk | 63.6 |
| Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | RB46 | 61 | -24 | Bust Risk | 81.1 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | QB31 | 63 | -25 | Strong Bust | 155.9 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | ARI | WR59 | 69 | -31 | Bust Risk | 84.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | RB37 | 70 | -14 | Bust Risk | 102.6 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | WR14 | 73 | +15 | Sleeper | 147.2 |
| Alec Pierce | WR | IND | WR16 | 78 | +15 | Sleeper | 144.7 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | MIN | QB35 | 78 | -24 | Strong Bust | 138.5 |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | WR21 | 79 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 137.3 |
| Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | RB8 | 80 | +20 | Sleeper | 182.4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | JAX | QB1 | 82 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 390.2 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | CLE | TE18 | 83 | -12 | Bust Risk | 94.9 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI | WR48 | 89 | -14 | Bust Risk | 96.8 |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | WR50 | 90 | -15 | Strong Bust | 94.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | LA | QB5 | 91 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 348.3 |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | RB41 | 92 | -11 | Bust Risk | 89.3 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | WR | TB | WR57 | 93 | -21 | Bust Risk | 86.7 |
| Jayden Reed | WR | GB | WR53 | 96 | -16 | Bust Risk | 91.2 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LA | RB45 | 98 | -14 | Bust Risk | 81.6 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | LAC | WR29 | 99 | +9 | Sleeper | 125.6 |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | JAX | WR10 | 104 | +30 | Strong Sleeper | 158.8 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | RB21 | 105 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 142.5 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | TE1 | 107 | +8 | Sleeper | 146.2 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | TE19 | 111 | -9 | Bust Risk | 94.3 |
| Xavier Worthy | WR | KC | WR64 | 114 | -21 | Strong Bust | 80.6 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | WR87 | 122 | -43 | Strong Bust | 67.1 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | TE4 | 124 | +9 | Sleeper | 127.5 |
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | CLE | QB37 | 125 | -16 | Strong Bust | 106.7 |
| KC Concepcion | WR | CLE | WR62 | 127 | -17 | Strong Bust | 81.6 |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | BUF | WR22 | 129 | +24 | Sleeper | 137.1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | NYG | RB26 | 130 | +11 | Sleeper | 125.8 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | SEA | QB7 | 135 | +15 | Strong Sleeper | 339.2 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | TE | LAC | TE23 | 136 | -8 | Strong Bust | 87.6 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | QB12 | 137 | +11 | Strong Sleeper | 306.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | NO | TE25 | 143 | -9 | Bust Risk | 83.5 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | SEA | WR68 | 144 | -19 | Strong Bust | 77.8 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | TE | NYJ | TE43 | 145 | -26 | Bust Risk | 52.6 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | IND | QB2 | 146 | +23 | Strong Sleeper | 377.6 |
| Brenton Strange | TE | JAX | TE9 | 149 | +9 | Sleeper | 115.4 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | TE3 | 150 | +16 | Sleeper | 131.2 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | TB | WR85 | 152 | -35 | Bust Risk | 68.6 |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | NYJ | WR61 | 157 | -9 | Bust Risk | 82.7 |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | CLE | RB53 | 164 | -12 | Bust Risk | 70.0 |
| Denzel Boston | WR | CLE | WR65 | 165 | -12 | Bust Risk | 80.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | QB17 | 167 | +10 | Strong Sleeper | 266.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | RB28 | 169 | +14 | Strong Sleeper | 119.6 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | TE8 | 170 | +13 | Sleeper | 116.9 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS | WR114 | 173 | -59 | Bust Risk | 57.1 |
| Travis Hunter | WR | JAX | WR36 | 174 | +20 | Sleeper | 117.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | ARI | QB20 | 175 | +9 | Strong Sleeper | 244.8 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | PHI | RB56 | 177 | -12 | Bust Risk | 65.2 |
| Emmett Johnson | RB | KC | RB87 | 178 | -42 | Bust Risk | 42.6 |
70 players
Our Pos Rank — our model's rank at the position · Consensus ADP — average draft position across public boards · Pos-Slot Edge— positional slots we disagree with ADP (positive = we're higher = sleeper)