NY-17
NY-17 House winner? (2026)
223k contracts traded · 154k open
NY-17 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
NY-17 House Race 2026: Cait Conley vs Mike Lawler Odds
New York’s 17th District
NY-17 is held by Republican Mike Lawler, who is on the November 3 ballot against Democrat Cait Conley. It is one of the closer House seats on the board, which is why it has its own page: the live contract below is real money pricing whether the seat flips, and the Quick Answer at the top reads the current favorite off that price rather than off a static rating.
Currently represented by Mike Lawler (R)
Quick Answer
As of October 6, 2026, Cait Conley leads the NY-17 House market at 64¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 64%.
Seat currently held by Mike Lawler (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 6, 8:22 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in NY-17
Cait Conley
Democrat64¢
Mike Lawler
Republican36¢
Live NY-17 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
NY-17 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the NY-17 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (New York’s 17th District) is held by Mike Lawler (Republican); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in NY-17 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the NY-17 House race are Cait Conley (Democrat) and Mike Lawler (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the NY-17 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the NY-17 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the NY-17 contract this cycle.
Get The 7 Oracles newsletter — midterm market alpha, free
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.