Redistricting count
How many states redistrict before the 2026 midterms?
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REDISTRICTING 2026Live · refreshed every 15 minutes
2026 Redistricting Tracker — Every State, Priced
14 states redrew or tried to redraw their congressional map for this cycle. This page puts each one’s status and seat effect next to the live Kalshi price on whether it counts as having redistricted, with the count-of-states ladder as the headline number and the Missouri map’s Supreme Court contract as the live hook.
Quick Answer
As of September 17, 2026, the Kalshi count ladder’s leading strike is “Below 8” states redistricting before the 2026 midterms, at 80¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 80%. Our own count: 5 maps settled and in force, 3 in use under challenge, 6 blocked or failed.
Seat math: the settled maps move a net +2 R; the contested maps add +3 to +5 R; combined +5 to +7 R of 435 seats, before a single vote.
Missouri at the Supreme Court: the contract on SCOTUS permitting the HB 1 map for November 3 trades at 3¢ — the live hook on the one contested map with a referendum fight attached.
Prices updated Sep 17, 8:22 PM UTC · refreshed every 15 minutes through Election Day.
How many states redistrict before the midterms?
Kalshi · KXNUMREDISTRICTING-26NOV03 · strikes low to highThe market’s distribution over the number of states that satisfy Kalshi’s redistricting criterion before November 3, 2026. Read it like a seat-count ladder: the highest-priced strike is the market’s modal answer, and the shape tells you how much room it leaves for one more map to land or fall.
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Against our count
We count 5 settled maps in force and 3 in use under challenge — 8 new maps in play, from 14 states that tried. Kalshi’s criterion is its own, so the ladder can sit above or below that number without either being wrong.
Missouri — the map at the Supreme Court
the one contested map with a referendum fight attachedMissouri’s HB 1 map is in effect and was used in the August 4 primary; the secretary of state refused to certify the repeal referendum the same day, and that refusal is in court. Kalshi prices whether the U.S. Supreme Court permits the map to govern November 3. The separate contract on whether the referendum is held at all is listed but inactive — status below, no price, because there is none.
MO map at SCOTUS
Will SCOTUS permit Missouri’s HB 1 House map for Nov 3, 2026?
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Will the House Bill 1 redistricting referendum be held in Missouri before Nov 4, 2026?
inactiveListed, inactive — no volume, no two-sided book.
Kalshi · KXMOREDISTREF-26NOV04 · no price shown by design
Every state that redrew — status, seat effect, market price
14 states · settled maps first- Settled maps, in force
- +2 R
- In use, under challenge
- +3 to +5 R
- Combined, if challenges fail
- +5 to +7 R
5 states · no live challenge
3 states · litigation open
of 435 seats · 218 to control
Net effect is expressed as seats gained by the party that drew the advantage. The Market column is Kalshi’s YES price on that state satisfying the contract’s redistricting criterion before the election — a different question from our status column, which is why a court-ordered map can be in force here and still price low there.
| State | Status | Net effect | Market | What changed | Tracked districts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California52 seats | In force | +5 D | 98¢ yes | Prop 50 response map, SCOTUS cleared Feb 4 2026 | CA-03CA-09CA-13CA-21CA-22CA-27CA-40CA-41CA-45CA-47CA-49 |
| Texas38 seats | In force | +5 R | 97¢ yes | HB 4 mid-decade map; SCOTUS upheld Apr 27 2026 | TX-15TX-28TX-34 |
| Ohio15 seats | In force | +2 R | 98¢ yes | court-required redraw targeting OH-09 (Kaptur) & OH-13 (Sykes) | OH-01OH-09OH-13 |
| North Carolina14 seats | In force | +1 R | 97¢ yes | new GOP map targeting NC-01 (Davis) | NC-01 |
| Utah4 seats | In force | +1 D | 3¢ yes | court-ordered map creating Salt Lake County Dem seat | none tracked |
| Florida28 seats | In use, under challenge | +1 to +3 R | 97¢ yes | new GOP map passed late Apr 2026 post-Callais; litigation live | FL-13FL-23 |
| Louisiana6 seats | In use, under challenge | +1 R | 97¢ yes | post-Callais map eliminating one majority-Black seat, approved late May 2026; litigation live | none tracked |
| Missouri8 seats | In use, under challenge | +1 R | 4¢ yes | new GOP map in effect (6-2 to 7-1 R) and used in the Aug 4 2026 primary; secretary of state refused to certify the repeal referendum that same day, campaign's suit over the refusal live in Cole County | none tracked |
| Virginia11 seats | Voided | 0 (would have been +4 D) | 3¢ yes | VA Supreme Court voided referendum May 8 2026; SCOTUS declined appeal May 15 — OLD map used | VA-01VA-02VA-07 |
| Indiana9 seats | Fell short | 0 | 1¢ yes | GOP redraw rejected by state Senate Dec 2025 | IN-01 |
| Kansas4 seats | Fell short | 0 | 3¢ yes | GOP redraw fell short Jan 2026 | none tracked |
| Maryland8 seats | Fell short | 0 | 3¢ yes | Dem redraw blocked by state Senate; filing deadline passed | none tracked |
| Nebraska3 seats | Fell short | 0 | 1¢ yes | NE-02 redraw effort stalled | NE-02 |
| New York26 seats | Fell short | 0 | 2¢ yes | Dem redraw blocked for 2026; SCOTUS let existing lines stand | NY-03NY-04NY-17NY-18NY-19NY-22 |
Every state Kalshi prices on redistricting
25 contracts · KXREDISTRICTING-26 · leader firstThe full per-state board — including states that appear in no redraw table because no map was attempted, yet still carry a live contract. A price in the 90s is the market treating the map as done; a price near zero is the market saying the state will not count.
2026 redistricting — frequently asked
Which states redistricted before the 2026 midterms?
14 states redrew or tried to redraw their congressional map for 2026. 5 maps are settled and in force, moving a net +2 R before a vote is cast; 3 more states are running new maps that are in use but under live litigation, worth a further +3 to +5 R; the remaining 6 redraws were blocked or fell short and move nothing. The table on this page lists every one with its status, its seat effect, and the live Kalshi price on whether the state counts as having redistricted.
Does Kalshi have a redistricting market?
Yes — three of them, all priced on this page. A ladder on how many states redistrict before the 2026 midterms; a per-state contract on whether each named state redistricts before the election; and a single market on whether the U.S. Supreme Court permits Missouri’s HB 1 map to govern the November 3, 2026 election. Each pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability. Every price on this page links straight to the live contract.
What is happening with the Missouri redistricting referendum?
Missouri’s new map (6–2 to 7–1 R) is in effect and was used in the August 4, 2026 primary; the secretary of state refused to certify the repeal referendum that same day and the campaign’s suit over that refusal is live. Two Kalshi contracts sit on it: the live market on whether the Supreme Court permits the HB 1 map for November 3, which this page prices, and a separate contract on whether the repeal referendum is held before November 4, which is listed but inactive with no volume — we show its status, never a price.
Why does the market price differ from the status column?
Because they answer different questions. Our status column records whether a new map is in force, contested, blocked or failed. Kalshi’s per-state contract settles on its own payout criterion for what counts as “redistricting” after its issuance date, so a court-ordered map can be in force here and still price near zero there, and a state with no row in our table can carry a live contract. Read the two side by side; neither is a typo.
How much does redistricting change House control?
The combined shift, if every contested map survives, is +5 to +7 R out of 435 seats against a 218-seat majority threshold — locked in before any campaigning. The House control and seat-count contracts absorb that into one number; this page and the House board are where the map effect is split back out from the environment.
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