MT-01
MT-01 House winner? (2026)
315k contracts traded · 268k open
MT-01 HOUSE 2026Live · updated hourly
MT-01 House Race 2026: Sam Forstag vs Aaron Flint Odds
Montana’s 1st District
MT-01 is an open Republican-held seat: Ryan Zinke holds it today, but Zinke is not on the 2026 ballot, so the seat is open. Democrat Sam Forstag faces Republican Aaron Flint on November 3. An open seat has no incumbency anchor, so the live contract below prices the two nominees and the national environment directly — read the leading price as the market’s probability that party takes the seat.
Currently represented by Ryan Zinke (R)
Quick Answer
As of October 6, 2026, Aaron Flint leads the MT-01 House market at 67¢ — real money putting the implied probability at 67%.
Seat currently held by Ryan Zinke (R).
Why trust the price: prediction markets called all seven 2024 presidential swing states correctly, often while polling averages were still split. Our state-by-state audit grades where they missed too.
Prices updated Oct 6, 8:22 PM UTC · refreshed hourly through Election Day.
Who is running in MT-01
Sam Forstag
Democrat33¢
Aaron Flint
Republican67¢
Live MT-01 House Market
Kalshi · CFTC-regulated · real moneyTrade →
How to read this
Each contract pays $1 at resolution, so the price in cents is the market’s implied probability — a 58¢ contract is a 58% chance. When the leading price sits near 50¢, the market is telling you the district is a genuine coin flip.
MT-01 House 2026 — frequently asked
Who is favored to win the MT-01 House race in 2026?
The live board above shows the current market favorite — read each contract’s price as the market’s implied probability, so a 55¢ contract is a 55% chance. Going into the cycle the seat (Montana’s 1st District) is held by Ryan Zinke (Republican); because a real-money market reprices continuously, take today’s favorite off the price, not a static rating.
Who is running in MT-01 in 2026?
The general-election candidates for the MT-01 House race are Sam Forstag (Democrat) and Aaron Flint (Republican), per the Kalshi contracts, whose rules name each candidate’s party as of 2026-10-06. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
How do I trade the MT-01 House market on Kalshi?
Kalshi lists the MT-01 House winner as YES/NO contracts, one per party, each settling at $1 if that side wins and $0 if it doesn’t. Buy the side you think is underpriced relative to your own probability, and the difference is your edge. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and open to traders in all 50 states; every price on this page links straight to the live market.
How accurate were prediction markets in 2024?
Prediction markets had a strong 2024 — Kalshi and Polymarket called all seven presidential swing states correctly the night before, often while the polling averages were still split. Our full state-by-state scorecard, including where the markets missed, is in the 2024 accuracy audit linked below, and it’s the best base rate for how much to trust the MT-01 contract this cycle.
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